Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
Adam Tooze covers the 'Rosie the Riveter" issue at length. He specifically mentions that the majority of German farms were operated by women, due to their men being mobilized, AND,
unlike today, WWII German farms were mostly artisanal, horse driven. This pretty much like today's AMISH farms in the US.
On p 515 he gives the following estimates of women armaments workers...
US - 25.4% UK - 33.1% 3rd Reich 34% as given in a Reich Labor Ministry Report in 43, and in a further study in 44.
As for Germany's shift to a war economy, Tooze covers this at length... A shift to a "war economy" was in full swing by late 41 when it became apparent to Hitler and his chiefs that the war would continue into 42, and possibly beyond.
Tooze spends considerable time analyzing the strategic rationale behind Barbarossa....
Basically it was a "Go for Broke" throw of the dice to take advantage of their fleeting primacy military wise, and their primacy in tactical land warfare, by committing their entire economic resource base to one big drive to a stop line at the Deniper-Divina River line, approx 500 km east of their start point. This stop line was considered the limit of their ability to shift supplies to the front.
In the event, the Russians were not crushed during the first few months of the war, the Germans had to adjust to moving supplies much further east, and by the time the Germans were in view of the Kremlin, the whermacht was basically out of gas.
All this has relevance to the SMO today... NATO planned on a Blitzkreig of the DonBas using the UAF, in a lightning move to Rostov for the purpose of cutting off the Crimea and forcing a Russian capitulation within weeks to months.. Like the NAZIS, NATO discounted Russia's ability to mobilize it's industries and people to counter the thrust, to out maneuver the UAF, and to emplace defensive belts in depth to stop the assaults in their tracks, with extreme losses of UAF personnel and equipment. NATO also discounted Shiogu's managerial skills and his ability to ensure the RuAF got what they needed, when they needed it.
Now, of course, we are in the end game of this conflict.
The West has been continuously discounting Russia, "the gas station with a country attached", and rejecting any analysts such as Stephen F. Cohen who had a more realistic view of how to treat Russia. Discounting the opposition and considering your own abilities to be better than they are seems to be a Western trait generally.
For Hitler the communist Slavs were always the real enemy, he would have preferred to make peace with the British Empire, he wanted what the US had - an ethnically cleansed lebensraum. A lot of research points to the Brits hoping that Hitler would wipe out the communists for them, but he turned west before he went east again. The delivery of Czechoslovakia to Germany in 1938 greatly enhanced the latter's military capacity with the addition of the large and advanced Czech MIC.
We owe it to Stalin's moving of the Barbarossa start-line far to the West for the failure of the German Blitzkrieg phase, otherwise the first four months would have included the taking of Leningrad, Moscow, Kharkov and quite possibly the Donbass.
Tooze mentions that prior to the German attack on Fance in 1940? There was much trepidation on the part of the NAZI elite WRT whether the affair would or would not turn into a war of attrition... which the 3rd Reich could not afford, given it mobilized it's resources for a < 6 month affair.
Apparently, the decision to attack through the Ardennes was a last minute one. In the event, Army Group B did the expected attack through Holland/Belgium including taking the forts via vertical envelopment, something new at the time.
Army Group A attacked via 4 2 lane roads through the Ardennes for the purpose of taking the Muse River Bridges. This caught the French with their pants down, having committed their reserves to the north.
Thus the Germans enveloped the combined French/British Force, and pushed them to the north where only two harbours, Dunkirk being one, existed.
The Germans to their dis-credit failed to exploit the situation via mobilization of every thing that floats and carries a gun to close off any attempt to extract/supply the BEF by sea, while the whermacht pulverized them with artillery.
Had that happened, it's very likely the British would have sued for peace, given >380,000 of their finest were in the cauldron, basically the entirety of their armed forces...
The biggest take away from all this is their success in France emboldened the NAZIS into believing they could do the same to Russia, irregardless of the fact that the French battle space was actually quite small.... being constrained by the Bay of Biscay to the west, the Channel to the north, and the Rhine Valley to the east. This enabled German envelopment of the BEF/FA within a short distance. The Germans totally discounted the difference the gigantic Russian battle space would bring to bear on the battle.. and the consequential logistic issues that would ensue.
That is those who chose to attack Russia ignored these issues. Thomas and other top Wehrmacht Staff Officers were aware of these issues, and attempted numerous times to make Hitler aware of the risks. They were either sidelined or cashiered.
In effect Hitler and his entourage threw away the opportunity to engage the UK in the med via an alliance of Germany/Spain/Italy using their short range land based air together with their naval assets to take Gibraltar, Egypt, Cyprus, Crete, and Malta, thus shutting the Royal Navy out of the Med, and using Suez as a spring board to the oil of Mesopotamia/Iran and dominance of the Indian Ocean in concert with the Japanese.
Had they done so, the Germans would have effectively broken the Anglo/American blockade, securing their access to critical raw materials via Indian Ocean Trade. This would have been possible via their proximity to the Indian Ocean vs a vis the great distances across which the Anglo/American naval forces need operate.
Basically, the war was Hitler's to lose in 1940. Had he chose to honor the pact with Russia, backed up by a similar pact between the Soviet Union and Japan, with concentration on defeating the adversaries he had, instead of making new ones, it's likely the Germans could have forced the Brits into armistice/capitulation by 43 given the Americans need divide their forces between Europe and the Pacific, and regardless they need cross oceans to engage the Axis anywhere.
Adam's book analyzes the German wartime economy, seeking to understand NAZI decision making.
Most striking in his analysis is his finding that the German armaments works were critically short of manpower to the point it restricted steel production. That steel production controlled munitions, armour, aircraft, and other critical war materiel production. That the critical missing imput to steel production was production of coking coal, with miners in short supply. That food production was severly impacted by the manpower shortages, which resulted in reduced rations for the miners to the point there were work stoppages, with the miners refusing to return to the pits until they were fed.
Currently, Ukraine's pits are mostly found in the DonBas and are under Russian control, with the sole exception of a major steel works NW of Denipr City. However, the key take away for everyone is the critical shortage of personnel needed to keep critical utilities in operation. Garbage disposal, sewage works, water works, metros, rail ways, goods transport, are all short of men, and given the press gangs roving the country, sooner or later, those critical to maintaining something of critical importance, will be swept up and sent to the front.
MAN power shortages it was, because unlike the British the Germans did not fully mobilize the female population for war production. Even quite late in the war, German production had not even fully gone over to a war economy the way the British had. There were many less "Rosie the Riveter" types in WW2 Germany, the Germans tried to fill the holes with forced labourers. But their lack of proper treatment of that labour back-fired. The Soviet Union was the nation that most fully mobilized its population for war.
In "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze is found a chart of Wehrmacht losses during WWII.
During this war, the average population of Germany was 75-80 millions. Losses averaged 60,000 per month for the entirety. Losses were so severe during the first year of the war that Germany expended the entirety of it's 20 year olds, and made up the losses by drafting the entirety of it's 19 year olds.
Adding to the Wehrmacht's woes was the loss of experienced NCOs and junior officers.
This attrition was the reason the Wehrmacht could only field one axis of advance in 42-43, vs the 3 axes of advance pursued when Barbarossa kicked off on 21 Jun 41.
The current population of Ukraine is 16-20 millions of which the majority are pensioners.
Roger estimates the Ukie monthly losses at ~ 30,000 and likely climbing recently to ~ 40,000.
Given the Ukrainian current population is ~ 1/4 of the German WWII population, the impact of current Ukie losses of 40,000 / month approximates the rate of Wehrmacht losses during the final months of WWII, which broke the back of German resistance.
Then you add in the dearth of births from 1990 to the present day, together with the mass emigration of the young and mobile, and we see why the average age of the Ukrainian army is rapidly climbing. Any further mass conscription will also destroy the Ukrainian economy by exacerbating an already serious non-military labour shortage. Absolutely unsustainable.
In WW2 the British could still count on their many millions of Dominion and Colony subjects to die for the British Empire in large numbers (for example at Dieppe). The mutiny of the Indian Army, and then the post-war mutiny of the British troops in Asia (demanding to be sent home rather than fight post-WW2 imperial wars that they had not joined the army to do) put paid to the British Empire.
I agree, the plummet in Ukie births during the period following the break up of the Soviet Union leads directly to the shortage today, of the 15 - 35 year age cohorts. This was caused by privatization of Ukranian industries, whose new owners, paid wages insufficient to support families, and governments which did likewise to their professional class.
A further and critical issue in the lack of manpower is mass emigration out of Ukraine and into neighboring states. This began before the war, in fact a driving force behind the Maidan was visa free travel to the EU for employment at a living wage. Greed led to the Maidan, and to the economic mess Ukraine is in today.
This is why various estimates give Ukraine's population as 16-20 millions currently.
The well being dry is shown by videos of women assaulting mobilization commissars in town squares, on trams, and in public transport, with the majority occuring in smaller communities where the men were conscripted in greatest number.
Recent Russian attacks on mobilization and training facilities > 30 km behind the front exacerbate their losses.
Yet, like the 3rd Reich, the Ukies fight on... so, it will most probably be necessary for the Russians to advance somewhere and chop up Ukie territory into assimilable chunks, then incorporate them into the Russian Federation, like Donetsk, Lughansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhe.
Everything East of the Dniepr plus Odessa and the south (linking up with Transnistria), otherwise Russia will never be truly safe. The Poles, Slovaks and Hungarians and Moldovans can deal with the very poor and very Banderist rump. All those military-age single Ukrainian men in European countries will be a continuing problem. The single/widowed women will most probably integrate much more smoothly.
Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
exactly right roger... thanks for stating all this in as clear a manner as possible..
Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
INDY
Adam Tooze covers the 'Rosie the Riveter" issue at length. He specifically mentions that the majority of German farms were operated by women, due to their men being mobilized, AND,
unlike today, WWII German farms were mostly artisanal, horse driven. This pretty much like today's AMISH farms in the US.
On p 515 he gives the following estimates of women armaments workers...
US - 25.4% UK - 33.1% 3rd Reich 34% as given in a Reich Labor Ministry Report in 43, and in a further study in 44.
As for Germany's shift to a war economy, Tooze covers this at length... A shift to a "war economy" was in full swing by late 41 when it became apparent to Hitler and his chiefs that the war would continue into 42, and possibly beyond.
Tooze spends considerable time analyzing the strategic rationale behind Barbarossa....
Basically it was a "Go for Broke" throw of the dice to take advantage of their fleeting primacy military wise, and their primacy in tactical land warfare, by committing their entire economic resource base to one big drive to a stop line at the Deniper-Divina River line, approx 500 km east of their start point. This stop line was considered the limit of their ability to shift supplies to the front.
In the event, the Russians were not crushed during the first few months of the war, the Germans had to adjust to moving supplies much further east, and by the time the Germans were in view of the Kremlin, the whermacht was basically out of gas.
All this has relevance to the SMO today... NATO planned on a Blitzkreig of the DonBas using the UAF, in a lightning move to Rostov for the purpose of cutting off the Crimea and forcing a Russian capitulation within weeks to months.. Like the NAZIS, NATO discounted Russia's ability to mobilize it's industries and people to counter the thrust, to out maneuver the UAF, and to emplace defensive belts in depth to stop the assaults in their tracks, with extreme losses of UAF personnel and equipment. NATO also discounted Shiogu's managerial skills and his ability to ensure the RuAF got what they needed, when they needed it.
Now, of course, we are in the end game of this conflict.
Warmly,
INDY
The West has been continuously discounting Russia, "the gas station with a country attached", and rejecting any analysts such as Stephen F. Cohen who had a more realistic view of how to treat Russia. Discounting the opposition and considering your own abilities to be better than they are seems to be a Western trait generally.
For Hitler the communist Slavs were always the real enemy, he would have preferred to make peace with the British Empire, he wanted what the US had - an ethnically cleansed lebensraum. A lot of research points to the Brits hoping that Hitler would wipe out the communists for them, but he turned west before he went east again. The delivery of Czechoslovakia to Germany in 1938 greatly enhanced the latter's military capacity with the addition of the large and advanced Czech MIC.
We owe it to Stalin's moving of the Barbarossa start-line far to the West for the failure of the German Blitzkrieg phase, otherwise the first four months would have included the taking of Leningrad, Moscow, Kharkov and quite possibly the Donbass.
Tooze mentions that prior to the German attack on Fance in 1940? There was much trepidation on the part of the NAZI elite WRT whether the affair would or would not turn into a war of attrition... which the 3rd Reich could not afford, given it mobilized it's resources for a < 6 month affair.
Apparently, the decision to attack through the Ardennes was a last minute one. In the event, Army Group B did the expected attack through Holland/Belgium including taking the forts via vertical envelopment, something new at the time.
Army Group A attacked via 4 2 lane roads through the Ardennes for the purpose of taking the Muse River Bridges. This caught the French with their pants down, having committed their reserves to the north.
Thus the Germans enveloped the combined French/British Force, and pushed them to the north where only two harbours, Dunkirk being one, existed.
The Germans to their dis-credit failed to exploit the situation via mobilization of every thing that floats and carries a gun to close off any attempt to extract/supply the BEF by sea, while the whermacht pulverized them with artillery.
Had that happened, it's very likely the British would have sued for peace, given >380,000 of their finest were in the cauldron, basically the entirety of their armed forces...
The biggest take away from all this is their success in France emboldened the NAZIS into believing they could do the same to Russia, irregardless of the fact that the French battle space was actually quite small.... being constrained by the Bay of Biscay to the west, the Channel to the north, and the Rhine Valley to the east. This enabled German envelopment of the BEF/FA within a short distance. The Germans totally discounted the difference the gigantic Russian battle space would bring to bear on the battle.. and the consequential logistic issues that would ensue.
That is those who chose to attack Russia ignored these issues. Thomas and other top Wehrmacht Staff Officers were aware of these issues, and attempted numerous times to make Hitler aware of the risks. They were either sidelined or cashiered.
In effect Hitler and his entourage threw away the opportunity to engage the UK in the med via an alliance of Germany/Spain/Italy using their short range land based air together with their naval assets to take Gibraltar, Egypt, Cyprus, Crete, and Malta, thus shutting the Royal Navy out of the Med, and using Suez as a spring board to the oil of Mesopotamia/Iran and dominance of the Indian Ocean in concert with the Japanese.
Had they done so, the Germans would have effectively broken the Anglo/American blockade, securing their access to critical raw materials via Indian Ocean Trade. This would have been possible via their proximity to the Indian Ocean vs a vis the great distances across which the Anglo/American naval forces need operate.
Basically, the war was Hitler's to lose in 1940. Had he chose to honor the pact with Russia, backed up by a similar pact between the Soviet Union and Japan, with concentration on defeating the adversaries he had, instead of making new ones, it's likely the Germans could have forced the Brits into armistice/capitulation by 43 given the Americans need divide their forces between Europe and the Pacific, and regardless they need cross oceans to engage the Axis anywhere.
INDY
Adam's book analyzes the German wartime economy, seeking to understand NAZI decision making.
Most striking in his analysis is his finding that the German armaments works were critically short of manpower to the point it restricted steel production. That steel production controlled munitions, armour, aircraft, and other critical war materiel production. That the critical missing imput to steel production was production of coking coal, with miners in short supply. That food production was severly impacted by the manpower shortages, which resulted in reduced rations for the miners to the point there were work stoppages, with the miners refusing to return to the pits until they were fed.
Currently, Ukraine's pits are mostly found in the DonBas and are under Russian control, with the sole exception of a major steel works NW of Denipr City. However, the key take away for everyone is the critical shortage of personnel needed to keep critical utilities in operation. Garbage disposal, sewage works, water works, metros, rail ways, goods transport, are all short of men, and given the press gangs roving the country, sooner or later, those critical to maintaining something of critical importance, will be swept up and sent to the front.
Warmly,
INDY
MAN power shortages it was, because unlike the British the Germans did not fully mobilize the female population for war production. Even quite late in the war, German production had not even fully gone over to a war economy the way the British had. There were many less "Rosie the Riveter" types in WW2 Germany, the Germans tried to fill the holes with forced labourers. But their lack of proper treatment of that labour back-fired. The Soviet Union was the nation that most fully mobilized its population for war.
In "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze is found a chart of Wehrmacht losses during WWII.
During this war, the average population of Germany was 75-80 millions. Losses averaged 60,000 per month for the entirety. Losses were so severe during the first year of the war that Germany expended the entirety of it's 20 year olds, and made up the losses by drafting the entirety of it's 19 year olds.
Adding to the Wehrmacht's woes was the loss of experienced NCOs and junior officers.
This attrition was the reason the Wehrmacht could only field one axis of advance in 42-43, vs the 3 axes of advance pursued when Barbarossa kicked off on 21 Jun 41.
The current population of Ukraine is 16-20 millions of which the majority are pensioners.
Roger estimates the Ukie monthly losses at ~ 30,000 and likely climbing recently to ~ 40,000.
Given the Ukrainian current population is ~ 1/4 of the German WWII population, the impact of current Ukie losses of 40,000 / month approximates the rate of Wehrmacht losses during the final months of WWII, which broke the back of German resistance.
This level of losses is unsustainable.
Regards,
INDY
Then you add in the dearth of births from 1990 to the present day, together with the mass emigration of the young and mobile, and we see why the average age of the Ukrainian army is rapidly climbing. Any further mass conscription will also destroy the Ukrainian economy by exacerbating an already serious non-military labour shortage. Absolutely unsustainable.
In WW2 the British could still count on their many millions of Dominion and Colony subjects to die for the British Empire in large numbers (for example at Dieppe). The mutiny of the Indian Army, and then the post-war mutiny of the British troops in Asia (demanding to be sent home rather than fight post-WW2 imperial wars that they had not joined the army to do) put paid to the British Empire.
I agree, the plummet in Ukie births during the period following the break up of the Soviet Union leads directly to the shortage today, of the 15 - 35 year age cohorts. This was caused by privatization of Ukranian industries, whose new owners, paid wages insufficient to support families, and governments which did likewise to their professional class.
A further and critical issue in the lack of manpower is mass emigration out of Ukraine and into neighboring states. This began before the war, in fact a driving force behind the Maidan was visa free travel to the EU for employment at a living wage. Greed led to the Maidan, and to the economic mess Ukraine is in today.
This is why various estimates give Ukraine's population as 16-20 millions currently.
The well being dry is shown by videos of women assaulting mobilization commissars in town squares, on trams, and in public transport, with the majority occuring in smaller communities where the men were conscripted in greatest number.
Recent Russian attacks on mobilization and training facilities > 30 km behind the front exacerbate their losses.
Yet, like the 3rd Reich, the Ukies fight on... so, it will most probably be necessary for the Russians to advance somewhere and chop up Ukie territory into assimilable chunks, then incorporate them into the Russian Federation, like Donetsk, Lughansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhe.
Warmly,
INDY
Everything East of the Dniepr plus Odessa and the south (linking up with Transnistria), otherwise Russia will never be truly safe. The Poles, Slovaks and Hungarians and Moldovans can deal with the very poor and very Banderist rump. All those military-age single Ukrainian men in European countries will be a continuing problem. The single/widowed women will most probably integrate much more smoothly.
Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
INDY