Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
Adam Tooze covers the 'Rosie the Riveter" issue at length. He specifically mentions that the majority of German farms were operated by women, due to their men being mobilized, AND,
unlike today, WWII German farms were mostly artisanal, horse driven. This pretty much like today's AMISH farms in the US.
On p 515 he gives the following estimates of women armaments workers...
US - 25.4% UK - 33.1% 3rd Reich 34% as given in a Reich Labor Ministry Report in 43, and in a further study in 44.
As for Germany's shift to a war economy, Tooze covers this at length... A shift to a "war economy" was in full swing by late 41 when it became apparent to Hitler and his chiefs that the war would continue into 42, and possibly beyond.
Tooze spends considerable time analyzing the strategic rationale behind Barbarossa....
Basically it was a "Go for Broke" throw of the dice to take advantage of their fleeting primacy military wise, and their primacy in tactical land warfare, by committing their entire economic resource base to one big drive to a stop line at the Deniper-Divina River line, approx 500 km east of their start point. This stop line was considered the limit of their ability to shift supplies to the front.
In the event, the Russians were not crushed during the first few months of the war, the Germans had to adjust to moving supplies much further east, and by the time the Germans were in view of the Kremlin, the whermacht was basically out of gas.
All this has relevance to the SMO today... NATO planned on a Blitzkreig of the DonBas using the UAF, in a lightning move to Rostov for the purpose of cutting off the Crimea and forcing a Russian capitulation within weeks to months.. Like the NAZIS, NATO discounted Russia's ability to mobilize it's industries and people to counter the thrust, to out maneuver the UAF, and to emplace defensive belts in depth to stop the assaults in their tracks, with extreme losses of UAF personnel and equipment. NATO also discounted Shiogu's managerial skills and his ability to ensure the RuAF got what they needed, when they needed it.
Now, of course, we are in the end game of this conflict.
Adam's book analyzes the German wartime economy, seeking to understand NAZI decision making.
Most striking in his analysis is his finding that the German armaments works were critically short of manpower to the point it restricted steel production. That steel production controlled munitions, armour, aircraft, and other critical war materiel production. That the critical missing imput to steel production was production of coking coal, with miners in short supply. That food production was severly impacted by the manpower shortages, which resulted in reduced rations for the miners to the point there were work stoppages, with the miners refusing to return to the pits until they were fed.
Currently, Ukraine's pits are mostly found in the DonBas and are under Russian control, with the sole exception of a major steel works NW of Denipr City. However, the key take away for everyone is the critical shortage of personnel needed to keep critical utilities in operation. Garbage disposal, sewage works, water works, metros, rail ways, goods transport, are all short of men, and given the press gangs roving the country, sooner or later, those critical to maintaining something of critical importance, will be swept up and sent to the front.
In "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze is found a chart of Wehrmacht losses during WWII.
During this war, the average population of Germany was 75-80 millions. Losses averaged 60,000 per month for the entirety. Losses were so severe during the first year of the war that Germany expended the entirety of it's 20 year olds, and made up the losses by drafting the entirety of it's 19 year olds.
Adding to the Wehrmacht's woes was the loss of experienced NCOs and junior officers.
This attrition was the reason the Wehrmacht could only field one axis of advance in 42-43, vs the 3 axes of advance pursued when Barbarossa kicked off on 21 Jun 41.
The current population of Ukraine is 16-20 millions of which the majority are pensioners.
Roger estimates the Ukie monthly losses at ~ 30,000 and likely climbing recently to ~ 40,000.
Given the Ukrainian current population is ~ 1/4 of the German WWII population, the impact of current Ukie losses of 40,000 / month approximates the rate of Wehrmacht losses during the final months of WWII, which broke the back of German resistance.
exactly right roger... thanks for stating all this in as clear a manner as possible..
Actually, the number of military aged Ukrainian males is ~ 600,000. Most of them will marry EU women and will attempt to integrate into G-7 societies, like their fore fathers did when those folks emigrated to North America. The Ukrainian women will either wind up spinsters, or marry EU males, but will not generally choose Ukie males because they will not have sufficient earning power to support new families.
As for the territory to be assimilated by the Russians, it is my personal view that the Russians will end up taking virtually the entirety of Ukraine. They will do this to prevent NATO's ability to enfilade Belorussia from west and south simultaneously. This will also ensure they have direct access to both Hungary and Slovakia, and most certainly, the spine of the Carpathian Mts. makes a logical boundary.
As for the much ballyhooed Ukie insurgency, destruction of the Ukie army under current circumstances, will entail killing off the entirety of the military aged male population, and most of the child bearing aged female population, basically leaving small children and their great grand parents as survivors, because the Ukies are in the process of killing off the kids grand fathers too.
So, it's most likely the insurgency will die still born this time, given lack of man power to execute it.
As for minority ethnic groups, I am descended from the Ruethenians, much persecuted by the banderists over the centuries, and the Russians have a history of protecting and fostering their minorities, which will not be lost on their neighbors, so I expect a modus vivendi to be created between the Russians and their neighbors, with the exception of the Balts and Poland.
Poland need be brought to heel via the simple expedient of demanding the Poles either accept the borders drawn by the victors at Potsdam as codified in the treaty of San Francisco, or revert to those existing prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litvosk ( in which case Poland would disappear).
I am of the opinion that by the end of the SMO, NATO will be shown to be ineffectual, and the AngloAmericans toothless. We are seeing evidence of the latter now... Both Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth cannot sortie due to propulsion problems, and likely other deficiencies.. The RN's last patrol of the Falklands was 7 years ago. The RN is reduced to poking it's nose into hot spots with Corvettes at present. Witness the latest one at Guyana. We are seeing simiar rot in the USN.. Women have no business in command at sea. Ditto homo-sexuals. I say this from 35 years as master of a sea going vessel. The sea is unforgiving of such foolishness.
The USN is now lamenting that it is down to 177 USNS ships or american flagged merchant vessels which it can mobilize in time of war to carry war materiel. The USN de-commissioned it's last destroyer/sub tenders years ago. It's now dependent on over seas bases for replenishment. > 40 % of all USN ships are in the yard for repair/refurbishment. The USN's dominant escort vessel is the Arleigh-Burke DDG, which was put into service just after the vietnam war, uses gas turbines, and is very thirsty compared to earlier steam turbined DDs. All the Ticonderoga class CGs are being retired, with no replacements on the horizon. The USN shifted from patrol bombers based on fuel efficient turbo props to jets, losing endurance in the process. A much better choice would have been to shift to a C-130H platform for maritime patrol, or a large turboprop flying boat similar to the latest Chinese designs for that duty. The C-130 is robust, has the endurance, and would commonalize the parts inventory.
However, I anticipate the USAF will win the procurement wars squandering billions on a new bomber, at the expense of updated DDs and CCs.
INDY
Adam Tooze covers the 'Rosie the Riveter" issue at length. He specifically mentions that the majority of German farms were operated by women, due to their men being mobilized, AND,
unlike today, WWII German farms were mostly artisanal, horse driven. This pretty much like today's AMISH farms in the US.
On p 515 he gives the following estimates of women armaments workers...
US - 25.4% UK - 33.1% 3rd Reich 34% as given in a Reich Labor Ministry Report in 43, and in a further study in 44.
As for Germany's shift to a war economy, Tooze covers this at length... A shift to a "war economy" was in full swing by late 41 when it became apparent to Hitler and his chiefs that the war would continue into 42, and possibly beyond.
Tooze spends considerable time analyzing the strategic rationale behind Barbarossa....
Basically it was a "Go for Broke" throw of the dice to take advantage of their fleeting primacy military wise, and their primacy in tactical land warfare, by committing their entire economic resource base to one big drive to a stop line at the Deniper-Divina River line, approx 500 km east of their start point. This stop line was considered the limit of their ability to shift supplies to the front.
In the event, the Russians were not crushed during the first few months of the war, the Germans had to adjust to moving supplies much further east, and by the time the Germans were in view of the Kremlin, the whermacht was basically out of gas.
All this has relevance to the SMO today... NATO planned on a Blitzkreig of the DonBas using the UAF, in a lightning move to Rostov for the purpose of cutting off the Crimea and forcing a Russian capitulation within weeks to months.. Like the NAZIS, NATO discounted Russia's ability to mobilize it's industries and people to counter the thrust, to out maneuver the UAF, and to emplace defensive belts in depth to stop the assaults in their tracks, with extreme losses of UAF personnel and equipment. NATO also discounted Shiogu's managerial skills and his ability to ensure the RuAF got what they needed, when they needed it.
Now, of course, we are in the end game of this conflict.
Warmly,
INDY
Adam's book analyzes the German wartime economy, seeking to understand NAZI decision making.
Most striking in his analysis is his finding that the German armaments works were critically short of manpower to the point it restricted steel production. That steel production controlled munitions, armour, aircraft, and other critical war materiel production. That the critical missing imput to steel production was production of coking coal, with miners in short supply. That food production was severly impacted by the manpower shortages, which resulted in reduced rations for the miners to the point there were work stoppages, with the miners refusing to return to the pits until they were fed.
Currently, Ukraine's pits are mostly found in the DonBas and are under Russian control, with the sole exception of a major steel works NW of Denipr City. However, the key take away for everyone is the critical shortage of personnel needed to keep critical utilities in operation. Garbage disposal, sewage works, water works, metros, rail ways, goods transport, are all short of men, and given the press gangs roving the country, sooner or later, those critical to maintaining something of critical importance, will be swept up and sent to the front.
Warmly,
INDY
In "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze is found a chart of Wehrmacht losses during WWII.
During this war, the average population of Germany was 75-80 millions. Losses averaged 60,000 per month for the entirety. Losses were so severe during the first year of the war that Germany expended the entirety of it's 20 year olds, and made up the losses by drafting the entirety of it's 19 year olds.
Adding to the Wehrmacht's woes was the loss of experienced NCOs and junior officers.
This attrition was the reason the Wehrmacht could only field one axis of advance in 42-43, vs the 3 axes of advance pursued when Barbarossa kicked off on 21 Jun 41.
The current population of Ukraine is 16-20 millions of which the majority are pensioners.
Roger estimates the Ukie monthly losses at ~ 30,000 and likely climbing recently to ~ 40,000.
Given the Ukrainian current population is ~ 1/4 of the German WWII population, the impact of current Ukie losses of 40,000 / month approximates the rate of Wehrmacht losses during the final months of WWII, which broke the back of German resistance.
This level of losses is unsustainable.
Regards,
INDY