Zelensky Plays Into the Russian Hands

Syrskyi Will Accelerate The Ukrainian Losses and Final Collapse

Syrskyi, the new commander of the Ukrainian military appointed by Zelensky, known for his slavish yes man tendencies, and his utter disregard for mass casualties during needless meat assaults against Russian positions, is doing exactly what the Russians want him to do. Transfer units from other areas of the front, together with his remaining best units from the reserves, to be used up in the needless slaughter of a doomed attempt to save the city of Avdiivka. Even just the movement and massing of these troops makes them much more vulnerable to attrition by missiles, bombs, shells and drones. And we seem to have already seen a Ukrainian mass casualty event at Selydove, 30km behind the front, where the Ukrainian army seems to have been stupid enough to mass 1,500 or even more soldiers. The Russians launched a huge strike on the village using cluster munitions from Smerch batteries and Iskander missiles. And all this just as the renowned two month mud-season, “Rasputitsa”, promises to bog down troop movements and make assaulting troops sitting ducks. This is not a problem for the Russians attacking Avdiivka, as they are inside the urban area and have access to properly paved roads.

The Russians also of course have a massive advantage in missiles, bombs (now with the increasingly used heavy guided bombs), artillery pieces and shells, and now even drones and electronic warfare (including the blocking of Ukrainian drone signals). Any Ukrainian attacks across the water-logged black clay soil against Russia’s northern flank will be reminiscent of the Battle of the Somme, with possibly even higher casualty rates. Attempting to feed more troops and supplies into the city itself will create very large losses given that the Russians have fire control over all of the roads leading to Avdiivka, and some of those roads are not paved. A situation very reminiscent of the Bakhmut/Artymovsk battle.

Unlike the latter battle though, it is much later in the war and Ukraine has lost many more men (and women), and equipment, with a much lesser readiness/ability of the Ukrainian population and Western nations to make up for those losses. I have previously estimated Ukrainian losses, killed, irretrievably wounded and taken prisoner at 30,000 a month. In recent months the confirmed Ukrainian losses reported by the Russians have escalated, so conservatively losses are most probably in the 40,000 per month level. This would be expected given the reduction in the quality of Ukrainian troops as experienced soldiers are replaced with cannon fodder, the major Ukrainian shortages of artillery pieces and shells, and a Russian army going from strength to strength in every capability. So let’s assume 18 months of 30,000 / month losses and 6 months of 40,000 / month losses: 780,000 losses. That’s with mass resistance from the Ukrainian people to any further forcing of people to go to their deaths at the front. Already, there are reports of units with staffing levels of only 35% or even as low as 20% in major Western media as well as reports of severe shell shortages.

Even the BBC is having to say that new recruits have to be “caught and cajoled” (nice words for kidnapped and beaten), with the usual BBC anti-Russian propaganda mixed in of course.

And the French propaganda channel France 24.

With a lack of troop numbers, many are left in the line for many months or even years without respite; drastically reducing morale and fighting ability. And DW News reports that 42,000 women are serving in the army, including at the front, with plans to make women fully eligible for forced conscription. These are the last desperate moves of any country at war.

There are increasing reports of dead female Ukrainian soldiers at the front, as well as some who were luckier to be taken prisoner by the Russians. Female infantry are no match for their male counterparts, that is just simple biology; especially when they have received so little proper training. Somewhat realistic coverage of the realities of the Ukrainian army at the front from the Daily Mail.

The army is increasingly staffed with old and broken men using out of date weapons. If this is what the mainstream Western media is actually admitting to we can assume that the reality is much worse for Ukraine.

Once the Rasputitsa ends in April and the ground dries out, Ukraine will probably be faced with the situation of having lost Avdiivka and wasted its best remaining troops in meat assaults while also thinning out the units on other fronts. Together with the loss of countless amounts of artillery pieces, armoured vehicles and munitions. With the already in place escalation of Ukrainian losses, and with a probable further escalation, another 100,000 losses may have been incurred by the time the Spring arrives. With such failure, and yet more dead bodies arriving home, the resistance to the war on the Ukrainian home front can only be expected to escalate. Without the fortress of Avdiivka, and quite possibly the fortified areas of Pervomaiske, Heorhivka, and Novomykhailivka, the Ukrainian Donetsk front will also be much harder to hold. In addition, the Ukrainian lines in front of Chasiv Yar, Terny and Kupyansk are also under increasing pressure, and already starting to buckle and give way. Weeb Union provides a good summary of the pressure all along the Eastern Front.

Any opening of a new front by the Russians in the Spring, perhaps in the Kharkov/Sumy general area, may then create a general collapse as the Ukrainians simply will not have the soldiers, equipment and munitions needed to hold the line on all fronts.

Every day that Ukraine does not sue for peace is a day when the Ukrainian losses will be greater and its military and society weaker, the Russian military stronger, and the terms of the peace offered by the Russians worse.