Why BEV’s Wont Reduce Global CO2 Emissions This Decade
rogerboyd.substack.com
In a previous post I pointed out that until the yearly sales of personal BEV’s (battery electric vehicles, not plug in hybrid electric vehicles: PHEVs) equal the net additions to the personal vehicle fleet (i.e. the number of new cars sold that are not offset by current cars being removed) the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will continue to rise and therefore personal vehicle CO2 emissions will continue to rise. For China the rate of new additions to the fleet as a share of annual sales may be as high as 75% or even higher, for Europe closer to 45%, and for the US about 15-20%. We also have to take into account that a substantial number of used ICE vehicles are exported to Africa and other poorer nations; although they disappear from the European and US fleets, they continue to be used in other nations. In 2021, BEV market share was 12% in China, 10% in Europe, and about 4% in the US. China is forecast to double next year to 24% (but then may slow down as retail incentives are fully removed at the end of 2022). Europe may grow more slowly as CO2 emission standards do not tighten again until 2025 (if current Euro 7 proposals are passed), and the US has the least supportive incentive environment (especially after the failure of the “Build Back Better” legislation that included incentives for BEVs). It is safe to say that the required market share levels for BEV’s will not be reached until the second half of this decade (i.e. post-2025), at the earliest; i.e. the fleet of ICE vehicles in the three largest vehicle markets will continue to rise into the late 2020’s. At the global level, with the export of used ICE vehicles to other markets, the end of the decade may be a reasonable assumption.
Why BEV’s Wont Reduce Global CO2 Emissions This Decade
Why BEV’s Wont Reduce Global CO2 Emissions…
Why BEV’s Wont Reduce Global CO2 Emissions This Decade
In a previous post I pointed out that until the yearly sales of personal BEV’s (battery electric vehicles, not plug in hybrid electric vehicles: PHEVs) equal the net additions to the personal vehicle fleet (i.e. the number of new cars sold that are not offset by current cars being removed) the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will continue to rise and therefore personal vehicle CO2 emissions will continue to rise. For China the rate of new additions to the fleet as a share of annual sales may be as high as 75% or even higher, for Europe closer to 45%, and for the US about 15-20%. We also have to take into account that a substantial number of used ICE vehicles are exported to Africa and other poorer nations; although they disappear from the European and US fleets, they continue to be used in other nations. In 2021, BEV market share was 12% in China, 10% in Europe, and about 4% in the US. China is forecast to double next year to 24% (but then may slow down as retail incentives are fully removed at the end of 2022). Europe may grow more slowly as CO2 emission standards do not tighten again until 2025 (if current Euro 7 proposals are passed), and the US has the least supportive incentive environment (especially after the failure of the “Build Back Better” legislation that included incentives for BEVs). It is safe to say that the required market share levels for BEV’s will not be reached until the second half of this decade (i.e. post-2025), at the earliest; i.e. the fleet of ICE vehicles in the three largest vehicle markets will continue to rise into the late 2020’s. At the global level, with the export of used ICE vehicles to other markets, the end of the decade may be a reasonable assumption.