BYD was the #10 biggest selling global car manufacturer in the first half of 2023, with sales of 1.25 million. In the second half of 2023 BYD expanded its sales to 1.75 million, a 40% increase in only 6 months. It most probably surpassed Suzuki and Honda to become the global #8 in that period. With the Chinese EV market still rapidly growing, probably by 25% in 2024 after nearly 40% in 2023, and BYD’s exports rapidly increasing we can expect continued rapid growth. By the second half of next year it will most probably have overtaken Ford to become the #7 and be closing in on the #4, #5 and #6 - Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Stellantis and GM. BYD is the leader of a number of Chinese producers (Geely #13, Changan #14 and Chery #17 globally in 1H 2023 with SAIC-SGW, GAC and Li in the wings) that will take significant sales and market share away from Western car manufacturers in 2024 and beyond.
To question where the Chinese will obtain their rare earths shows profound ignorance of the rare earth market. I agree with Roger..... China is the dominant producer/refiner of rare earths..
One important reason the Chinese are embracing BEV vehicles is urban air quality. China is home to many "mega cities" those with populations > 25 million. Most notably, Beijing itself has for many years struggled with poor urban air quality. Mass adoption of BEVs drastically reduces air pollution, and permits China to power them with it's very large renewable power system and it's increasingly large Nuclear power system.
China is pioneering TMSRs and nuclear breeders and nuclear waste consuming reactors, using it's own and ROSATOMs technologies.
I can't believe Geely actually has a plant in the US.
I highly doubt this will last for long though, you know that in a few years they'll just ban Chinese cars from the US for "security" reasons or something stupid like that. It'll go the same way as Huawei and TikTok. The "free market" is all about banning your competitors when they make a better product than you.
It's a shame too, I'm really curious about the different models coming out from BYD and Geely.
"A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion.
This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024.
That's nearly ONE THIRD of all outstanding US federal debt right now.
All while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive.
Who's going to fund all of this debt?"
I speculate that the current valuation crisis at US banks caused by rising interest rates which dropped the market value of their treasury holdings, will be markedly reduced this year
BECAUSE
Nearly 1/3 of them will mature and be paid off by US Treas at par....
WHICH MEANS their Mark to Market valuation deficit will be reduced accordingly.
This should reduce pressure on the FED to reduce interest rates, and may be how this problem is dealt with.
I speculate that the Chinese... very busy in the area with the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Rennaisance Dam.... shared their experiences re-greening the Loess Plateau with Ethiopia, perhaps providing technical support.
I also saw a video of the reconstruction of the Eritrean Railway which has panoramas of the landscape, much of it savanna..
This region has been the scene of numerous clashes / civil wars, including the one ongoing in the Sudan. These topics interest me because I trained at Purdue in Agriculture before shifting to Science, and watershed management was the area of my PhD.
Perhaps, your wide ranging mind might find meat in this for an essay.
You mention March 11 in your earlier reply. Please revert with why that date is important this year.
Roger, in an earlier post you mentioned that when Yellen was FED CHAIR 2016-2019, she and Powell tag teamed an attempt to gradually deflate a bubble. Apparently, this led to a banking crisis 2019-2020 due to their failure to enable a credit facility.
It is my understanding from a Wolf Richter post that this facility was re-instated within the past month.
Is it reasonable to consider that this pair is in the process of deflating the current bubble via similar gradualist means?
That contrary to market expectations, most likely the US FED will hold interest rates where they are while continuing QT to gradually remove liquidity from the market and it's consequent market "FROTH" ??
Hmmm... where does China get its rare earth elements from Roger? And what will it do with the milliions of dead batteries? Dig a gigantic pit? I'm sorry but electric vehicles are just a new kind of exploitation of Nature and man. It's just exchanged one kind of pollution for another.
To question where the Chinese will obtain their rare earths shows profound ignorance of the rare earth market. I agree with Roger..... China is the dominant producer/refiner of rare earths..
One important reason the Chinese are embracing BEV vehicles is urban air quality. China is home to many "mega cities" those with populations > 25 million. Most notably, Beijing itself has for many years struggled with poor urban air quality. Mass adoption of BEVs drastically reduces air pollution, and permits China to power them with it's very large renewable power system and it's increasingly large Nuclear power system.
China is pioneering TMSRs and nuclear breeders and nuclear waste consuming reactors, using it's own and ROSATOMs technologies.
I can't believe Geely actually has a plant in the US.
I highly doubt this will last for long though, you know that in a few years they'll just ban Chinese cars from the US for "security" reasons or something stupid like that. It'll go the same way as Huawei and TikTok. The "free market" is all about banning your competitors when they make a better product than you.
It's a shame too, I'm really curious about the different models coming out from BYD and Geely.
From Twitter...
"A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion.
This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024.
That's nearly ONE THIRD of all outstanding US federal debt right now.
All while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive.
Who's going to fund all of this debt?"
I speculate that the current valuation crisis at US banks caused by rising interest rates which dropped the market value of their treasury holdings, will be markedly reduced this year
BECAUSE
Nearly 1/3 of them will mature and be paid off by US Treas at par....
WHICH MEANS their Mark to Market valuation deficit will be reduced accordingly.
This should reduce pressure on the FED to reduce interest rates, and may be how this problem is dealt with.
Your view?
INDY
Hi Godfree....
Nice to see you on this forum!
Just read your latest news letter.... Many interesting nuggets there...
Thank you for keeping my subscription active!
Warmly,
INDY
Dear Roger,
I hope you will indulge me in a change of subject.... To a to me, interesting topic... Greening of Deserts.
Some time ago, I watched John C.Liu's "ReGreening of the Desert" on youtube...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDgDWbQtlKI&t=680s
Just last week I found a youtube video of a similar project in Ethiopia...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBP2uRQk5pQ
I speculate that the Chinese... very busy in the area with the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Rennaisance Dam.... shared their experiences re-greening the Loess Plateau with Ethiopia, perhaps providing technical support.
I also saw a video of the reconstruction of the Eritrean Railway which has panoramas of the landscape, much of it savanna..
This region has been the scene of numerous clashes / civil wars, including the one ongoing in the Sudan. These topics interest me because I trained at Purdue in Agriculture before shifting to Science, and watershed management was the area of my PhD.
Perhaps, your wide ranging mind might find meat in this for an essay.
You mention March 11 in your earlier reply. Please revert with why that date is important this year.
Warmly,
INDY
So, the FED is stuck between a rock and a hard place....
Keep interest rates as they are... triggering a slomo bank implosion..
Cut rates and emplace FED PUT.... triggering a new bubble and round of inflation..
Have I summed it correctly?
INDY
Thanks for this info...
INDY
roger - you've been right about the direction of the world auto industry to date.. kudos and thanks for the update here..
Roger, in an earlier post you mentioned that when Yellen was FED CHAIR 2016-2019, she and Powell tag teamed an attempt to gradually deflate a bubble. Apparently, this led to a banking crisis 2019-2020 due to their failure to enable a credit facility.
It is my understanding from a Wolf Richter post that this facility was re-instated within the past month.
Is it reasonable to consider that this pair is in the process of deflating the current bubble via similar gradualist means?
That contrary to market expectations, most likely the US FED will hold interest rates where they are while continuing QT to gradually remove liquidity from the market and it's consequent market "FROTH" ??
Regards,
INDY
Hmmm... where does China get its rare earth elements from Roger? And what will it do with the milliions of dead batteries? Dig a gigantic pit? I'm sorry but electric vehicles are just a new kind of exploitation of Nature and man. It's just exchanged one kind of pollution for another.