Emmanuel Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union in his 1979 book. His unusual approach was ignored for the most part. He looked at cultural issues including: infant mortality rising, birthrates declining, and society stagnating.
In 2024 he published a new book: "The Defeat of the West".
Today he posted the text of a new preface to that book. Here are the first two paragraphs:
"Less than two years after the French publication of La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West) in January 2024, the book’s main predictions have come true. Russia has weathered the storm militarily and economically. The American military industry is exhausted. European economies and societies are on the verge of implosion. The Ukrainian army has not yet collapsed, but the stage of the West’s disintegration has already been reached.
I have always been hostile to the Russophobic policies of the United States and Europe, but as a Westerner committed to liberal democracy, a Frenchman trained in research in England, the child of a mother who was a refugee in the United States during the Second World War, I am devastated by the consequences for us Westerners of the war waged without intelligence against Russia."
Trump's multidimensional chess consists in flying under the radar of the neo-conservatives and deep state, who have not yet accepted that USA empire is terribly overextended and needs to greatly reduced in size
If Trump came out and openly ordered USA military to leave South Korea and invited China/Russia to henceforth mediate between North and South Korea because that dispute is not USA business, he would be denounced as a traitor. But if Trump simply destroys relations with South Korea, so that South Korea on its own starts to improve relations with China and Russia and eventually North Korea, Trump flies under the deep state radar. Destroying relations with a long-term ally for absolutely no reason doesn't compute, so the deep state can't react to this multidimensional chess maneuver.
Same with implicitly cutting a deal with Russia for Russia to create a sphere of influence in Europe (Ukraine, Baltics, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Balkan peninsula), party by military force, partly by trade policies (oil/gas especially). This sphere of influence will weaken Europe and ensures that Europe and the Euro never again pose a competitive threat to USA or US$. This sphere of influence will cost Russia enough to achieve that it will keep Russia inward focused for many decades trying to digest everything, removing Russia as a threat to USA interests in Africa. If Trump openly proposed such a deal with Russia, USA deep state would be horrified and surely remove Trump from power. But the above is what Trump's eccentric behavior is actually accomplishing.
Trump's next masterstrokes (if he lives long enough) might be to destroy the influence of Israel on USA politics, by leading Israel into a disastrous war with Iran, leaving Israel in economic ruins, and destroy the USA financial parasites via a combination of horrible deflationary depression when the AI bubble bursts followed by Argentina style hyperinflation to clean up the debt overhang.
Very good Frank, but I'm not sure Trump is that smart. It could be argued that US deep state doesn't want isolation, but that Trump does and has to achieve it by a more devious route.
However, I think Trump wants the isolation of the gilded cage with an endless line of supplicants coming in to stoke his ego and the rest of the world endlessly paying tribute.
I think that he has overplayed his hand and everyone else is edging towards the door.
I didn't say Trump himself was smart or knows what he is doing. But by a fortuitous combination of circumstances, Trump's actions are bringing about precisely the slimming down that USA needs. Slimming down of the foreign empire is now baked in. Domestic slimming down would be with regards to the parasiticical financial system rentiers. I'm not sure about that part. We'll have to wait for the AI bubble burst and aftermath to see about the domestic front.
Nice recap, but why does the Australian government remain so pro-American and ignore US gunboat diplomacy, genocide in Gaza, US bring anti-free trade, etc. all those things dear to a rules based order? Australia should apply to join Belt and Road. And maybe even seek observer status at BRICS. And cancel Aukus.
The security services of the US and Australia are completely intertwined. The country even houses the massive US Pine Gap US spying and communications facility. Last Australian PM to reflect the will of the Australian people was Whitlam and he was coup'd by the British and US security services. The Aussie oligarchy is an utter vassal of the US.
The US leadership is digging a hole that their country never will get up from without the country altering both shape and form. The USA we used to know simply is no more.
Just a side note, but I believe you meant to say Brazilian instead of Chinese in here:
"Already, more _Chinese_ soybeans and coffee is finding its way to China and Chinese goods could replace some of the imports from the US.
The results of an American public-opinion survey conducted in January revealed that most of the Americans polled who said they supported President Donald (Gimme’a Blow Job) Trump’s 25%-across-the-board tariffs on imported Canadian products (albeit a minority opinion) suddenly changed their minds if that tariff ends up costing them that much more for those products.
The Not In My Back Yard mindset is depressingly alive and well, even between close neighbours. In Trump’s twisted case, it may be more like: ‘... ESPECIALLY between close neighbours’. And his expectation of a rightful fair share (for the U.S.) will always be at least three-quarters of the pie.
The school-yard bully is especially angered by the relative weakling (nation) who in the least stands up to him. Yet, he can also be disgusted by the relative weakling’s (trade war) timidity or ‘elbows down’ response and behave even worse. He also fears appearing impotent by not unilaterally intimidating and/or exploiting via absurdly unjust tariffs against the comparably insubstantial nation that resists his skewed concept of ‘fairness’.
Also, it could be that more national governments around the globe are feeling and expressing a growing yet morally misplaced sense of foreign relations and power-politics entitlement toward militarily and/or economically weaker nations, including Canada — one that we are expected to simply get used to.
For Canadians, however, the bullying dynamic extends considerably beyond dealing with Trump’s America. Notably, China (via Beijing-centered rule) has similarly become an entitled, even smug, bully nation, not much better than Trump's America, if at all.
As a news-consuming Canadian, I've noticed there’s been an irritation especially expressed by China's government (and increasingly even India's) when our government — unlike with, say, mighty American assertiveness — dared to anger/embarrass them, even when on reasonable and/or just grounds.
The Beijing leadership of the People's Republic of China was/is annoyed by the relatively-weak Canada having been the one to detain (on Dec.1, 2018) and hold on (albeit luxurious) house arrest Meng Wanzhou, the Huawei executive and daughter of the tech corporation’s founder. Considering that a U.S. arrest warrant obligated Canada to detain her, why didn’t Beijing publicly express similar bluster towards Washington D.C. and, most notably, the then first administration of Donald Trump? Because size thus capability definitely matters.
Instead, Beijing took the more bullyish/cowardly path by arbitrarily detaining two Canadian men, commonly referred to by the news-media as “the 2 Michaels”, under bogus espionage charges effectively as human political hostages. Quite unlike Meng Wanzhou’s “house arrest” in a luxurious Vancouver mansion, the 2 Michaels did comparably very hard time in mainland China for a total of 1,020 days. The PRC could have more appropriately picked a couple of Americans to wrongfully imprison but deliberately stuck with bullying and taking hostages from the relatively militarily- and economically-weak Canada.
The 2 Michaels just happened to be released at the same time as the Trump U.S. dropped its charges against Meng Wanzhou, who was then released, for something political and/or economic in return from China. Classic foreign-policy bullyish cowardice.
With India’s government, Canada dealt (at least somewhat) firmly after Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Canadian Sikh separatist, was assassinated in Surrey, B.C., on June 18, 2023. Undoubtedly already aware of the diplomatic furor likely to come, even at Canada’s expense, an investigation nonetheless resulted in Canada charging three Indian nationals for the murder.
The Canadian government did not have to detain Meng Wanzhou, there is no such obligation vis a vis a US arrest warrant. It was Canada and Trudeau being a vassal supplicant of the US. The two Micheals were not innocent, Korvig was previously a Canadian intelligence asset and the other Michael accused him of involving him in an operation.
Canada has very much been an imperial actor itself, as well as a vassal of the US, and is an active member of the "five eyes" intelligence community lead by the US. Also a very fulsome supporter of the Ukraine proxy war and providing weapons and diplomatic cover for the Zionist genocide. Canada is anything but an innocent here, and China managed the whole Meng Wanzhou incident very calmly. Harper had developed very good relations with China, Trudeau threw that away. Now Carney is trying to undo some of that damage.
My eyes were opened much wider first from the "pandemic" with Big Pharma's focus on profits, and later with the "Russian invasion of Ukraine" which was in fact a multi year war to weaken Russia.
Once way out of the USA narrative, it is shocking to watch the inept "leadership" which is accelerating the decline of the US at home and in the world.
One of the results of the pandemic fraud was the engagement of many talented MDs, researchers and others in the health field, who left the democratic party and are now actively supporting Trump. I am waiting until the corruption and stupidity of Trump in many areas will lead some of these formerly lifelong democrats to distance themselves from Trump.
And of course, since economics is the new transcendent reality, Trump's destruction of the US economy will lead to his downfall and hopefully to the republican party for years to come.
Trump has made his money, there is no need for him to stay around if he had an almost normal ego. But it doesn't look like he can be stopped. Steven Miller continues to pump him up.
And there is the hope against hope that the democratic party, or some other political movement or political party will arise to address the concerns of the US. Can real politics get moving again?
Off topic. The Decline of the West
Emmanuel Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union in his 1979 book. His unusual approach was ignored for the most part. He looked at cultural issues including: infant mortality rising, birthrates declining, and society stagnating.
In 2024 he published a new book: "The Defeat of the West".
Today he posted the text of a new preface to that book. Here are the first two paragraphs:
"Less than two years after the French publication of La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West) in January 2024, the book’s main predictions have come true. Russia has weathered the storm militarily and economically. The American military industry is exhausted. European economies and societies are on the verge of implosion. The Ukrainian army has not yet collapsed, but the stage of the West’s disintegration has already been reached.
I have always been hostile to the Russophobic policies of the United States and Europe, but as a Westerner committed to liberal democracy, a Frenchman trained in research in England, the child of a mother who was a refugee in the United States during the Second World War, I am devastated by the consequences for us Westerners of the war waged without intelligence against Russia."
"The dislocation of the West: what threatens us
Emmanuel Todd Oct 06, 2025"
https://emmanueltodd.substack.com/p/the-dislocation-of-the-west-what
Trump's multidimensional chess consists in flying under the radar of the neo-conservatives and deep state, who have not yet accepted that USA empire is terribly overextended and needs to greatly reduced in size
If Trump came out and openly ordered USA military to leave South Korea and invited China/Russia to henceforth mediate between North and South Korea because that dispute is not USA business, he would be denounced as a traitor. But if Trump simply destroys relations with South Korea, so that South Korea on its own starts to improve relations with China and Russia and eventually North Korea, Trump flies under the deep state radar. Destroying relations with a long-term ally for absolutely no reason doesn't compute, so the deep state can't react to this multidimensional chess maneuver.
Same with implicitly cutting a deal with Russia for Russia to create a sphere of influence in Europe (Ukraine, Baltics, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Balkan peninsula), party by military force, partly by trade policies (oil/gas especially). This sphere of influence will weaken Europe and ensures that Europe and the Euro never again pose a competitive threat to USA or US$. This sphere of influence will cost Russia enough to achieve that it will keep Russia inward focused for many decades trying to digest everything, removing Russia as a threat to USA interests in Africa. If Trump openly proposed such a deal with Russia, USA deep state would be horrified and surely remove Trump from power. But the above is what Trump's eccentric behavior is actually accomplishing.
Trump's next masterstrokes (if he lives long enough) might be to destroy the influence of Israel on USA politics, by leading Israel into a disastrous war with Iran, leaving Israel in economic ruins, and destroy the USA financial parasites via a combination of horrible deflationary depression when the AI bubble bursts followed by Argentina style hyperinflation to clean up the debt overhang.
Very good Frank, but I'm not sure Trump is that smart. It could be argued that US deep state doesn't want isolation, but that Trump does and has to achieve it by a more devious route.
However, I think Trump wants the isolation of the gilded cage with an endless line of supplicants coming in to stoke his ego and the rest of the world endlessly paying tribute.
I think that he has overplayed his hand and everyone else is edging towards the door.
I didn't say Trump himself was smart or knows what he is doing. But by a fortuitous combination of circumstances, Trump's actions are bringing about precisely the slimming down that USA needs. Slimming down of the foreign empire is now baked in. Domestic slimming down would be with regards to the parasiticical financial system rentiers. I'm not sure about that part. We'll have to wait for the AI bubble burst and aftermath to see about the domestic front.
Nice recap, but why does the Australian government remain so pro-American and ignore US gunboat diplomacy, genocide in Gaza, US bring anti-free trade, etc. all those things dear to a rules based order? Australia should apply to join Belt and Road. And maybe even seek observer status at BRICS. And cancel Aukus.
The security services of the US and Australia are completely intertwined. The country even houses the massive US Pine Gap US spying and communications facility. Last Australian PM to reflect the will of the Australian people was Whitlam and he was coup'd by the British and US security services. The Aussie oligarchy is an utter vassal of the US.
Interesting analysis indeed. Thanks!
The US leadership is digging a hole that their country never will get up from without the country altering both shape and form. The USA we used to know simply is no more.
Just a side note, but I believe you meant to say Brazilian instead of Chinese in here:
"Already, more _Chinese_ soybeans and coffee is finding its way to China and Chinese goods could replace some of the imports from the US.
Fixed, thanks.
The results of an American public-opinion survey conducted in January revealed that most of the Americans polled who said they supported President Donald (Gimme’a Blow Job) Trump’s 25%-across-the-board tariffs on imported Canadian products (albeit a minority opinion) suddenly changed their minds if that tariff ends up costing them that much more for those products.
The Not In My Back Yard mindset is depressingly alive and well, even between close neighbours. In Trump’s twisted case, it may be more like: ‘... ESPECIALLY between close neighbours’. And his expectation of a rightful fair share (for the U.S.) will always be at least three-quarters of the pie.
The school-yard bully is especially angered by the relative weakling (nation) who in the least stands up to him. Yet, he can also be disgusted by the relative weakling’s (trade war) timidity or ‘elbows down’ response and behave even worse. He also fears appearing impotent by not unilaterally intimidating and/or exploiting via absurdly unjust tariffs against the comparably insubstantial nation that resists his skewed concept of ‘fairness’.
Also, it could be that more national governments around the globe are feeling and expressing a growing yet morally misplaced sense of foreign relations and power-politics entitlement toward militarily and/or economically weaker nations, including Canada — one that we are expected to simply get used to.
For Canadians, however, the bullying dynamic extends considerably beyond dealing with Trump’s America. Notably, China (via Beijing-centered rule) has similarly become an entitled, even smug, bully nation, not much better than Trump's America, if at all.
As a news-consuming Canadian, I've noticed there’s been an irritation especially expressed by China's government (and increasingly even India's) when our government — unlike with, say, mighty American assertiveness — dared to anger/embarrass them, even when on reasonable and/or just grounds.
The Beijing leadership of the People's Republic of China was/is annoyed by the relatively-weak Canada having been the one to detain (on Dec.1, 2018) and hold on (albeit luxurious) house arrest Meng Wanzhou, the Huawei executive and daughter of the tech corporation’s founder. Considering that a U.S. arrest warrant obligated Canada to detain her, why didn’t Beijing publicly express similar bluster towards Washington D.C. and, most notably, the then first administration of Donald Trump? Because size thus capability definitely matters.
Instead, Beijing took the more bullyish/cowardly path by arbitrarily detaining two Canadian men, commonly referred to by the news-media as “the 2 Michaels”, under bogus espionage charges effectively as human political hostages. Quite unlike Meng Wanzhou’s “house arrest” in a luxurious Vancouver mansion, the 2 Michaels did comparably very hard time in mainland China for a total of 1,020 days. The PRC could have more appropriately picked a couple of Americans to wrongfully imprison but deliberately stuck with bullying and taking hostages from the relatively militarily- and economically-weak Canada.
The 2 Michaels just happened to be released at the same time as the Trump U.S. dropped its charges against Meng Wanzhou, who was then released, for something political and/or economic in return from China. Classic foreign-policy bullyish cowardice.
With India’s government, Canada dealt (at least somewhat) firmly after Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Canadian Sikh separatist, was assassinated in Surrey, B.C., on June 18, 2023. Undoubtedly already aware of the diplomatic furor likely to come, even at Canada’s expense, an investigation nonetheless resulted in Canada charging three Indian nationals for the murder.
The Canadian government did not have to detain Meng Wanzhou, there is no such obligation vis a vis a US arrest warrant. It was Canada and Trudeau being a vassal supplicant of the US. The two Micheals were not innocent, Korvig was previously a Canadian intelligence asset and the other Michael accused him of involving him in an operation.
Canada has very much been an imperial actor itself, as well as a vassal of the US, and is an active member of the "five eyes" intelligence community lead by the US. Also a very fulsome supporter of the Ukraine proxy war and providing weapons and diplomatic cover for the Zionist genocide. Canada is anything but an innocent here, and China managed the whole Meng Wanzhou incident very calmly. Harper had developed very good relations with China, Trudeau threw that away. Now Carney is trying to undo some of that damage.
My eyes were opened much wider first from the "pandemic" with Big Pharma's focus on profits, and later with the "Russian invasion of Ukraine" which was in fact a multi year war to weaken Russia.
Once way out of the USA narrative, it is shocking to watch the inept "leadership" which is accelerating the decline of the US at home and in the world.
One of the results of the pandemic fraud was the engagement of many talented MDs, researchers and others in the health field, who left the democratic party and are now actively supporting Trump. I am waiting until the corruption and stupidity of Trump in many areas will lead some of these formerly lifelong democrats to distance themselves from Trump.
And of course, since economics is the new transcendent reality, Trump's destruction of the US economy will lead to his downfall and hopefully to the republican party for years to come.
Trump has made his money, there is no need for him to stay around if he had an almost normal ego. But it doesn't look like he can be stopped. Steven Miller continues to pump him up.
And there is the hope against hope that the democratic party, or some other political movement or political party will arise to address the concerns of the US. Can real politics get moving again?