Is The US Going Soft On China?

The Manchurian Candidate Playing Multi-Dimensional Chess? Or Just Accepting Reality?

Since Obama’s pivot to Asia in 2011, the US has spent fourteen years vainly attempting to hold back the rise of China. To many outside observers, the lost cause and self-defeating nature of these attempts have been obvious, but not to Donald Trump when he came into office this year. He decided that all that was needed was to escalate the hell out if the situation, so he did.

On February 1st, less than two weeks after being sworn in, Trump announced a 10% increase in tariffs on all goods from China. After China responded with its own retaliatory tariffs, Trump upped the rate to 20% on March 3rd. China responded again and Trump increased the tariffs to 54% on April 2nd. China retaliated again and Trump raised the tariff level to 104% on April 8th, and China once again responded in kind. So Trump raised the tariff rate to 145%, and China again responded. In essence, China was saying that they could do without exports to the US and would cut off all imports from the US. They were calling Trump’s bluff, as they knew that a completely cut off of Chinese imports would very significantly impact the US economy, while they had worked hard over the years to reduce their exposure to the US. China also put an export ban on the critical minerals that are crucial to so many parts of a modern economy and military, and which the US is dependent upon China for nearly all its supplies. At the same time it slashed its buying of US agricultural products, causing mayhem in that sector of the US economy.

Trump backed down, and a 90-day truce was agreed on May 12th, with a 30% tariff on Chinese exports to the US and a 10% tariff on US exports to China. Trump only respects strength, and China has displayed its strength and its steadfastness. But Trump was still playing dirty, as per usual, as he placed limits on the supply of AI chips to China and started revoking Chinese student visas. So China kept the rare earth minerals export ban, and tightened its enforcement. After Trump had blathered about a deal being done when it had not been, the truce was extended for another 90 days on August 11th.

On September 3rd, Trump placed secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil, but did not do the same to China. He then lobbied Europe to place 100% tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil! While China directed its corporations to not buy Nvidia microchips, as domestic producers have significantly caught up and China wants them to have the benefit of the Chinese domestic market. Also, China has developed more lightweight and cost-effective AI models, and major Chinese companies such as Alibaba are investing heavily in facilities in China and in other nations outside the West. And China announced an increased trade surplus as it diversifies its exports even more away from the US, and slashes its imports from the US; the US needs Chinese imports more than China needs to export to the US. Now, China stands as the beacon of free trade while the US has launched a tariff war on the world.

That 90-day extension will be up early November, and it seems that Chinese steadfastness and patience is working as Trump’s rhetoric has taken a much more respectful tone and he has stated that he will meet with Xi at a regional summit in late October and visit China early next year; although China has confirmed neither of the meetings. Also, members of the US House of Representative visited China to meet with Chinese government officials.

In parallel to the above, China has displayed more and more of its huge military industrial complex capacity as well as its increasingly advanced defence technology. The India Pakistan 12 Day War showed the superiority of its J-10 fighter and air to air missiles over advanced Western technology, and many of its latest pieces of equipment show equivalence or even superiority over Western designs. Part of this advantage is the widespread use of ASEA (active electronically scanned array) radars that require third generation (e.g. gallium nitride GaN, silicon carbide SiC and indium selenide InSe) microchips. These chips are utilized extensively by Chinese industries, from smartphones to electric vehicles to 5G base stations to wind and solar installation. With such a manufacturing base, China has a huge advantage in cost and availability of such third generation microchips. As noted here:

This strategic leverage has enabled China to deploy cutting-edge phased array radar systems across its armed forces at a pace and scale unmatched by the US and its vassals.

China is the only country deploying GaN-based phased array radar on a large scale. According to state broadcaster CCTV, the domestically developed radars are interconnected to form coordinated networks capable of detecting stealth aircraft, ballistic missiles and other targets … China’s global leadership in GaN-based phased array technology is an example of the “military-civilian fusion strategy”

Under the strategy, military technology is first disseminated to civilian markets, where enormous demand drives rapid iteration in the supply chain. This leads to increased production capacity, lower costs, and continuously improving reliability. The commercial scale, in turn, provides for a highly cost-competitive military procurement ecosystem.

China’s military progress results from investment in tech infrastructure, human capital, and state will. Technological leadership can only be achieved through long-term planning and system thinking.

China’s growing military superiority based on its dominance in critical minerals such as rare earth is the child of such planning.

The US invented ASEA radars, but because of its limited materials processing and manufacturing capabilities they are not widely implemented within the US armed services. China’s export restrictions on gallium arsenide further limit the US military’s capabilities to implement ASEA radars, limiting most of the US military to the more limited PESA (passively electronically scanned array) radars. The Chinese aircraft can detect US aircraft before the US aircraft can detect them, and then use their longer-range air-to-air missiles to shoot the US aircraft down.

Across a spectrum of new technologies, China can use its extensive commercial manufacturing capabilities to drive down prices and achieve high quality mass production. This then makes advances in Chinese weaponry, such as the new J-35 and J-50 fighter jets, both more cost effective and faster than the US MIC. The massive Chinese ship building industry also supports a colossal level of new military ship building. The US can simply not keep up. China has removed the option of US attack by displaying its defensive strength, backed by its enormous manufacturing and high technology capabilities. There certainly does seem to be a “pivot away from Asia” taking place, as reported here:

The Pentagon’s top national security focus will mirror that of President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, with multiple U.S. officials telling Military Times that the department will prioritize protecting the homeland and the Western Hemisphere … “[Protecting] the border is the top priority for the base, and I think for moderates, too. So this shift is fulfilling that promise,” said one official, who spoke to Military Times on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive policy information.

Just as the US is going “back to the future” with gunboat-style diplomacy in the Caribbean.

China has removed the options of a trade tariff war, technology export restrictions, and a shooting war from the US. Through careful diplomacy and patience, together with the overreach of the separatist forces, it has also helped defuse the Taiwan separatist issue. The Xinjiang Western genocide hoax also seems to have lost its propagandistic bite, especially when the US is an active participant in the Zionist regime’s very real genocide. And the memories of the Hong Kong riots, fully aided by the US, have faded away. The US is also losing the propaganda war. Even more as China starts to have the image of a climate action and clean energy champion while Trump rants about the climate change “hoax” and the wonder of fossil fuels at the United Nations.

This year, and into the next, may possibly be the period when the US oligarchy has to grudgingly accept that they have to deal with China more like an equal. If this comes about, many will scream that Trump is being “soft” on China, when in fact he is just being forced to accept reality. Just as he has been forced to accept the reality that he cannot force Russia to agree to terms that are not in its interest. It may also be becoming obvious to his administration that the US is far too financially extended (govt. debt to GDP of 124%, budget deficit of 7% and rising) to risk any kind of crisis with China. Even more so when he is at some kind of war with pretty much the rest of the world.

Ironically, as the US attempts to fix its imbalances through tariff wars it is helping the rest of the world de-risk themselves from the US economy. As their export dependency upon the US falls, as they are forced to localize more production in the US or redirect exports away from the US, the effect of a US crisis upon their domestic economies will be lessened. A prime example is a Brazil which is rapidly moving its exports away from the US as it takes advantage of the Chinese re-sourcing of agricultural goods and responds to the 50% tariff that was imposed in an attempt to interfere in Brazil’s internal affairs. In 2024, China received 28% of all Brazilian exports while the US received only 12%. We can expect to see a jump in the exports to China and a big drop in the exports to the US this year and next. Brazil has only responded to the US tariffs by taking a case to the WTO, but we can also expect a general resistance to US goods in the country. Brazil’s goods exports to the US of US$40.3 billion in 2024 were only equal to 1.8% of Brazil’s GDP. US goods exports to Brazil were actually higher than that! Already, more Brazilian soybeans and coffee are finding their way to China and Chinese goods could replace some of the imports from the US. About a quarter of Brazil’s imports came from China in 2024, with the US in second place at 16%.

Another example is that of an India which the US seems to have decided to give a good punching. First with the additional 50% tariff (25% for buying oil from Russia), then with the sanctioning of the Chabahar port crucial to India’s logistics plans, then the US$100,000 fee for with the H1B visas so used by Indian nationals and offshoring companies. The impact of the 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceuticals on India will be limited as it mostly exports generic drugs, but India will be hit by the 30% tariff on furniture. Once again, the only option that the US is giving to another nation is to integrate more with its opposition; perhaps another unlikely alliance with China?

Then there is even a South Korea which has been publicly humiliated by the horrendous treatment of Hyundai’s staff who did not have the right papers because the US authorities had been dragging their feet on South Korean workers who were critical to getting Hyundai’s new US plant up and running. No wonder South Korea is balking at the huge amounts that the US is demanding that it invest in the US. The sheer arrogance of the Trump administration, and its proclivity to escalate its demands during negotiations, “moving goalposts", is on display for the whole world to see. At a time when South Korean public sentiment toward the US is souring badly. When one of America’s tightest vassals with a large occupying US army is balking at an agreement, the US administration should be understanding that it has jumped the shark. The US is displaying the relationship skills of a mafia boss, one that does not understand that its power is waning and a much more pleasant and trustworthy option is available.

And now the Trump administration has created yet more trade chaos with its new 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceuticals (hits Europe), 50% on kitchen cabinets (hits China & Vietnam), 30% on upholstered furniture (hits China & Vietnam) and 25% on heavy trucks (hits Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany & Finland). The Trump administration is once again moving the goalposts on countries that thought that they had already agreed trade terms, or were in the process of doing so.

With the creation of such chaos by the Trump administration, and its fiscal position, it can simply not afford to escalate further with China. Kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture are relatively low on the value-added curve and represent a relatively small part of China’s exports to the US, so should not cause too much of an issue for the US-China trade negotiations. For Vietnam it is a huge slap in the face after the utterly one-sided trade agreement that it thought that it had made earlier this year. The position of Europe, and Mexico and Canada is also now thrown back up in the air. All while China is opening up to the world outside of the US.

While slackening off the aggression toward China, the Trump administration seems to be doing all it can to drive other nations into the arms of China by displaying its utter arrogance, mendacity and untrustworthiness to anyone that does not have China’s ability to fight back. While showing the Chinese population how much they need to support the Party-state in its fight with the US menace. Perhaps Trump is playing multi-dimensional chess; as the Manchurian candidate.