Russia, Chinese and Iranian Strategy

The RIC alliance practices strategic patience: time is on their side.

Some commentators seem to misunderstand the strategies of Russia, China and Iran and concomitantly judge them to be weak when they are in fact operating from an understanding of their own positions and the need to stick to a long-term workable game plan. The Western strategists seem unable to construct a long-term viable game plan and have bounced from one extreme (1990s global dominance through crushing other nations) to another (cause as much mayhem as possible to undermine your challengers in a desperate attempt to gain the impossible global dominance).

Russia

Russia is carrying out a massive full scale war with Ukraine/NATO and needs to balance the demands of this with the health of the economy that supports the war effort (dependent upon the goodwill of the Rest of the World in refusing to implement sanctions) and the maintenance of reserve military elements to dissuade any more direct attacks upon Russia (including its declared nuclear strategy). Apart from its highly effective limited engagements in Africa, it simply cannot afford to get involved in other actions in a significant way - most especially a major Middle East war. This is one reason why the West is desperate to maintain Ukraine in the field, as a Russian victory would free it up to be more active in other areas as well as raise its soft power throughout the RoW. At the same time, the continuation of the war squeezes Europe economically, militarily and politically; weakening it as a threat to Russia.

China

China has a long-term plan of simply overwhelming the US/West with its economic power, the positive projection of that power throughout the RoW, and the building of a reputation for non-intervention, respect for sovereignty, and fair play within the RoW; in contrast to the US/West’s increasing destruction of its own hard and soft power. There is absolutely no strategic gain for China to become embroiled in the Middle East conflict, especially when it does not threaten its oil supplies. In contrast, the US (and much of the West’s) full on support for Israeli genocide and aggression is destroying its soft power; most especially in the South-East Asian Moslem nations of Indonesia and Malaysia.

In the past few years, China has fundamentally rebalanced its economy and driven large leaps in productivity and technology upgrading which allow it to capture the value-added which foreign companies used to, and become an export powerhouse in higher value-add goods such as cars. The discussion below covers how China achieved this, and the blindspot of the West to these changes. China is in a perfect position to overwhelm the US economically and diplomatically, while maintaining a very strong defensive stance.

The deepening collaboration between Russia and China aligns a country with a colossal cornucopia of natural resources (being expanded with the addition of Ukrainian resources), and a very strong military and nuclear presence, with the manufacturing powerhouse of the globe. With the removal of the US presence in Afghanistan and the deepening alliances with Iran, the two can also dominate a resource rich “hinterland” of the “Stans” (Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan). Together with the neutral ASEAN (excluding the Philippines and embattled Myanmar) this creates a huge stable area, encompassing the globe’s fastest growing economies, for Russia and China. Also, most recently in the Caucasus, Georgia has turned away from the West and Azerbaijan has improved its relations with Russia and Iran; a major loss for the West which now only has the small and very much surrounded and defeated Armenia. Russia also provides many decades of good relations with India, to offset the Indian enmity toward their much more successful Chinese neighbour; with India attempting to follow its own way rather than be a pawn of any major power.

Iran

Iran has reached peace with its Arab neighbours, and it now has deepening strategic relationships with Russia and China. The US presence on its border in Afghanistan has been removed, and Iraq is more an ally than a US base. The threat from the Caucasus has also been greatly reduced as Georgia and Azerbaijan move away from Western vassalage. It has also managed to limit the impacts of the US/West supported "Islamic" terrorist organizations (e.g. ISIS). It understands that there are significant elements in the US establishment that want to destroy it, and therefore must manage its own resources carefully and not provide a casus belli. Just look at the current ridiculous Trump claims that the Iranians are trying to assassinate him when both previous attempts were so obviously from the US security state.

If the US/West directly attacks Russia then all bets are off. I think the same for a major attack upon Iran, as both Russia and China understand the impacts upon their own strategies of this. Other than this, Russia, China and Iran understand that Israel is simply a puppet of the US (as the now dead leader of Hezbollah stated a number of times), and that the US actions in the Middle East may provide tactical victories but are providing a huge strategic defeat. In addition, the US and the West are declining by the day while they continue to massively develop (China), survive and prosper (Russia) and survive and rebuild (Iran). RIC (Russia, Iran, China) is the absolute core of the anti-Imperialist struggle, that cannot be risked even at the cost of many hundreds of thousands of lives. BRINCISSTAN (Belarus, Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, Iraq, Syria, Stans) is the extended core of that resistance, with additional increasingly aligned areas of Turkey, South East Asia, MENA (excluding Israel), and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Even by 2030, let alone 2035, the global balance of power will be very different. The RIC's main priority is to make it to that point, and the US/West are desperately trying to stop that through provocation after provocation. And yes, that means that Israel will enjoy short-term horrific victories, but it is nothing without US/West support. And that is declining every year, even within the US as young Jews reject Zionism and the ranks of US Zionist Christians are reduced through death; while the hatred of Israel by the wider Moslem world grows with every monstrous act of the Zionist regime. And even tactical victories can turn into strategic defeats, as with the “exploding pagers” attack which will drive nations to remove Western communications technologies from at the least their state institutions; limiting the global spying ability of the West and undermining Western technology corporations.

The current period is the most dangerous as it is the period of transformation from one global order to another. The US, and the West, are lead by a singularly arrogant, obstinate and incompetent set of oligarchs and courtiers. As Jeffrey Sachs notes below “The people currently running Washington are my failed students”, while he calmly lays out the utter disaster that has been US foreign policy for the past few decades. The US has vastly overplayed its hand, and continues to, weakening itself internally and externally.

This excellent panel below covers how disconnected the “Beltway Think Tanks” and US policy makers are from US public opinion, and the global consensus when it comes to the actions of Israel. The reputation of the US (and the West) is in tatters, and its global legitimacy and soft power very significantly reduced; the mythical “Rules Based Order”, and the related BS “Responsibility to Protect” have been exposed for all to see as the sick joke that that they are, together with the utter hypocrisy of the West. The speakers are part of the Beltway, so a certain amount of BS is included but it is instructive how even these individuals view the impact on US and Western power and legitimacy.