Ukraine: The Risk of Desperation Measures by the US
No matter what silliness is being spouted by supposed Western “experts”, the Ukrainian war is going Russia’s way in an inexorable fashion. Those that think things are happening too slowly, or that the Russian’s are bogged down, should take some time to read about military matters and the time it takes to invade a large nation such as Ukraine. As this reality is becoming evident to Western leaders, they seem to be thrashing around in a desperate effort to find a way of stopping the inevitable without risking World War Three.
The unwillingness of the non-Western world to be involved in the anti-Russian sanctions, and the readiness to take a balanced view of causality outside the Western media monoculture, seemed to be a shock to Western leaders. The response was a mixture of bullying and pleading to Russia and India (to unsuccessfully get them to stop buying Russian exports), Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia (to unsuccessfully get them to increase oil exports). Even a return to the JCPOA with Iran may not increase oil supplies, as Iran may already be exporting near its limit of 3 million barrels of crude oil per day. The main impact of this bullying and pleading has been to diminish the image of the “all-powerful” US and hardened the resolve of nations to not involve themselves in the sanctions. Russia will be able to continue to trade with three quarters of global GDP, with some impacts while alternative payment processes are put in place. In addition, Europe will continue to buy Russian oil and gas, at least until the expiration of their current contracts; at that point it may be Russia that refuses to renew with those nations that have now identified themselves as its enemies. Asia will be more than happy to slowly take up all of the extra supply as pipeline and LNG infrastructures are built out. In the interim, Russia may lose some revenue (although this may be balanced by higher prices with part of the global supply off the market for a while) but Europe will lose the ability to heat their homes and power their industries.
Another avenue that the US has been taking is to get as many weapons and mercenaries as possible into Ukraine to bolster the national army that is slowly losing its best troops in the Donbass and Mariupol. The recent missile strikes on the staging areas for such weapons and mercenaries, together with Russia’s statement that weapon supplies to Ukraine are considered to be a legitimate military target, may have significantly cooled the ardour of both the weapons suppliers and the mercenaries. An increasing number of online statements by foreign mercenaries about their horrendous experiences in Ukraine, much of which is that the hands of the Ukrainian authorities, may also reduce the supply of foreign fighters significantly. The obviously desperate attempts of the US to get anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, of the type they can operate, can also only have diminished the US in other nation’s eyes. The US even stooped to the level of proposing that Turkey should give Ukraine the very Russian S400 systems that when purchased from Russia lead to US military equipment sanctions on Turkey. This was after already looking at the S300s that Slovakia and Bulgaria have, and bringing forward S300s that the US had secretly obtained for military study. The belief that these would make any real difference and would not be destroyed by the Russians within days, is a measure of the desperation involved.
Another area that may only serve to unite the Russian people behind their leader and against the West is the incredibly petty treatment doled out to individual Russians abroad. Most Russians may be indifferent to the illegal seizure of the private property of Russian oligarchs, but the vilification and removal of Russian athletes, musicians and others can only show the West in a bad light to the average Russian. The cancellation of flights from Russia to Europe will also tend to increase the sense of separation from the West; vacations will now be oriented within Russia and to the east and south. Putin has taken the opportunity to also close down much of what was left of liberal and Western-supportive media, together with some significant parts of the US and Western media. The result is that the West will have a much more severely restricted ability to get its messages to the average Russian, and to have that average Russian be receptive to them.
After the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, someone will have to pay the price for the inability to stop Russia from turning Ukraine into a demilitarized and peaceful client state; especially with the scale of anti-Russian propaganda that has been used. It is strange that suddenly the Hunter Biden laptop is being called authentic by outlets such as the New York Times. One possibility floated on the podcast The Duran is that President Biden and his family are being set up as the fall guys. The only issue with this is the astounding incompetence of the Vice President who would then become President; two years of that individual as President may make the Trump years seem relatively benign to many. The current opinion polls are pointing to a landslide for the Republicans in the House and Senate elections this year, giving them the opportunity to launch many investigations into the Biden administration that could be strung out toward the next presidential election – doing as much damage as possible. With majorities in both the House and Senate, the Republicans could also wrest control of foreign policy away from the President. The US policy of baiting the Russians into attacking Ukraine may very well lead to political chaos within the US itself. The other scary option for the Biden administration would be to double down by prodding China with respect to Taiwan. As the saying goes, “the best way to mend a broken heart is a new love”, so it may be seen that “the best way to fix a lost war is a new war”. I truly hope that the US administration does not follow such logic. Unfortunately, Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee (Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan) seem to have no concept of their own intellectual failings nor that of strategic retreat.