Ukraine: The Destruction of the Ukrainian Army Approaches Its Summer Peak

With the fall of Krasnohorivka, the only heavily fortified areas still held by the Ukrainians are those of the Toretske/New York agglomeration opposite Horlivka and Ugledar in the south east corner of the front. The fortified areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Pisky, Pervomaiske, Marinka, Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka have all fallen. The Toretske/New York agglomeration is now open to being surrounded from the south, as the Russians drive north from Ocheretyne and from the north after Chasiv Yar falls. The advance of the Russians from Novomykhailivka to Konstyantynivka will cut off the last major supply route to Ugledar, facilitating its fall. Both objectives may very well have been achieved by the start of Summer. At that point there will be none of the fortifications that have stood and been reinforced for a decade left, and the colossal levels of corruption within the Ukrainian state sucked away much of the money meant for additional fortified lines of defence and minefields.

This is a symptom of the increasing strength and improved tactics of a Russian army that enjoys overwhelming superiority with respect to artillery and aircraft, and is rapidly achieving the same with respect to the number of drones. The Russian tactic is to use this massive supremacy to pulverize the Ukrainian positions before its troops, who also enjoy a massive supremacy in tanks and armoured vehicles, moved forward. The result is loss ratios of between 8:1 and 10:1 in favour of the Russians, with the Ukrainian losses escalating. At a time when Russian losses are actually falling significantly, the loss ratio seems to becoming even more in Russia’s favour. For example, Russia reported the following Ukrainian losses for the single day of May 11th:

- Sever Group (Kharkov): 170 troops, 3 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 2 SA systems (and 34 taken prisoner)

- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 300 troops, 1 tank, 1 AFV, 10 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces

- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 550 troops, 4 tanks, 1 APC, 6 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces

- Tsentr Group (Donetsk south): 390 troops, 5 AFV, 3 motor vehicle, 6 artillery pieces

- Vostok Group (southern front): 160 troops, 2 AFV, 5 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces

- Dnepr Group: 50 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces, 1 SA system

That’s 1,654 lost troops including prisoners. With under-reporting (Russia does not count those killed by strikes away from the front, plus there are always missed bodies on any battlefield) it could easily be 2,000 in one day. Then 5 tanks (including 3 Leopards), 12 Armoured fighting vehicles/Armoured personnel carriers, 30 motor vehicles (underlining the lack of armoured vehicles), 46 artillery pieces, 3 Surface to Air systems. The high number of motor vehicles are a symptom of the Ukrainian army deteriorating rapidly toward a predominantly infantry-based force dependent on personal vehicles and “technicals” (trucks with heavy guns on the back) for transportation and mobile fire power. The 3 Leopards (and recent losses of more Abrams tanks) show a desperation as even the remaining Western tanks are thrown at the front, and the massive losses of artillery shows the increasing Russian ability to wipe out the remaining Ukrainian artillery pieces. The Ukrainians will no longer have a shell shortage problem, as they will have no platforms with which to fire the shells from.

You will note in the list of losses above is the new Kharkov front, which is both acting to escalate Ukrainian losses and to redirect Ukrainian reinforcements away from the other fronts. The Russians will only increase the pressure upon a Ukrainian army that will be bereft of protective fortifications, bereft of air cover, bereft of anti aircraft systems, bereft of artillery, and bereft of armoured vehicles. Even their drone operators will have increasing issues as they are caught in the open and Russian electronic warfare systems increasingly degrade their drones capabilities. At the same time Russian drone supplies are exploding in scale, and these are the perfect weapons (in addition to helicopters and fixed wing aircraft) to target an enemy increasingly in the open; on foot or using civilian vehicles. Any concentration will be readily found and open to accurate artillery and air bombardment, including with the increasing supplies of heavy guided bombs.

2,000 losses per day equals 60,000 a month, how long can the Ukrainian army sustain such a loss rate, especially when the front line troops number perhaps 250,000, before buckling and collapsing? How long can Ukrainian troop morale sustain that level of losses and hellish battering before it collapses? Just as any replacements will be of individuals who have been unwillingly press-ganged into serving with little or no training; pure cannon fodder given what they face. The Ukrainian front could quickly come to resemble the “Turkey Shoot” that the Iraqi troops leaving Kuwait were subjected to by the US military.

On May 12th, the Russian military reported the following Ukrainian losses:

- Sever Group (Kharkov): 100 troops, 2 tanks, 1 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 7 artillery pieces

- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 190 troops, 2 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 4 artillery pieces

- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 620 troops, 2 tanks, 18 motor vehicles, 9 artillery pieces, 1 SA system

- Tsentr Group (Donetsk south): 415 troops, 2 tanks, 4 AFV, 3 motor vehicle, 1 artillery pieces

- Vostok Group (Southern front): 125 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 4 artillery pieces

- Dnepr Group: 50 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces

That’s 1,500 lost troops, 6 tanks (including 1 Abram), 7 Armoured fighting vehicles/Armoured personnel carriers, 34 motor vehicles, 36 artillery pieces, 1 Surface to Air system. The ratio of armoured vehicles to motor vehicles is worsening, and the decimation of the remaining pieces of Ukrainian artillery continuing. Let’s remember that the Sever Group has only committed a light first echelon to the fighting north of Kharkov (and even that has already fought its way to the first line of Ukrainian defences), if heavier echelons are introduced the Ukrainian losses on that front will escalate rapidly. Also note the very high losses on the Donestsk front, where most of the fortified areas have already been overcome.

There is also the possibility of the Russian military opening a new front in the Sumy region, which will only escalate the Ukrainian losses further while stretching the remaining Ukrainian forces across an even greater front. At what level of daily losses will the Ukrainian army collapse, 2,000 per day, 3,000 per day, 4,000 per day? The Russians will simply keep escalating until the breaking point is achieved. By not retreating to behind the Dniepr, the Ukrainian armed forces risk a complete collapse that will result in their having no ability to defend the rest of Ukraine. NATO bloviations about committing their own meagre forces, which have already had their own meagre equipment and munitions numbers depleted to rearm Ukraine, are simply delusional musings which will meet reality with a hard impact. They will find the reality of the philosopher Tyson’s advice that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”.

Ukraine and NATO are now being repeatedly punched in the face, will they learn that their previous plans are now all irrelevant? Only a change of plans will have any hope of limiting their losses.