The economic integration of South East Asia with China continues, now backed by the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) free trade zone that also includes Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand; a zone that contains 30% of the world’s population and 30% of its GDP. This is the fastest growing part of the global economy, with Japan and South Korea being very serious laggards behind China and the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) nations.
The US and its allies are still capable of affecting local elections in some ASEAN nations that have not shut down their NGO-complex and other means of political interference, as they have done in Malaysia (the victory of Anwar Ibrahim in 2022) and Thailand (the victory of Pita Limjaroenrat and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the latter of the billionaire Shinawatra political clan, in May). In the latter case, the West had supported groups that blocked a recent attempt to ban the extensive foreign interference in political affairs. There is also the chaos in Myanmar, with the US and India heavily involved. These are short-term setbacks which will create issues for the countries citizens as their leaders follow a more US-centric agenda against the best interests of their own nations, but these leaders cannot stop the overall trends of integration within South East Asia. In Philippine’s 2022 election the ex-Vice President Leni Robredo, a beneficiary of the Western funded NGO-complex, was beaten by Bongbong Marcos (yes, the son of the previous corrupt authoritarian dictator Marcos) with the ex-President’s wife Sara Duterte becoming Vice President; with the Philippines carrying out a balancing act between China and the US. The ASEAN nations will continue peaceful development within Asia, acting as a block against any US attempt to build an anti-China coalition.
As I have stated in an earlier piece, India’s elite structure has failed the nation since independence and has most recently become an extractive oligarchy allied with extreme Hindu supremacists (Hindutva); travelling along the path to a fascist state unless somehow overturned. Its economy may grow, but that growth may not create actual development nor the lifting of the vast majority of its population out of poverty and near poverty. India will never be a real competitor to China, and its foreign policy will remain one of balance between China and the US; removing it from any possible “coalition of the willing” against China. This does not stop its interference in Myanmar, which it sees as a regional issue against Chinese dominance in that nation. China is also a historical ally with Russia, and that does not seem to be changing.
Central Asia, the “stans” (Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) is now much more stable after the defeat of the attempted Western regime change operation in Kazakhstan and the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan. This is both China and Russia’s backyard (as well as Iran’s), and an important source of fossil fuels and minerals to the former as well as being part of the BRI infrastructure, so it is important that this area remains outside of Western interference. The greatest danger is a Pakistan that after decades of elite mismanagement and corruption is slipping into economic collapse and is also a hotspot for the intensifying effects of climate change. With its position in the region, its population of over a quarter of a billion, the ever-present religious undercurrents with respect to an India with a Hindutva leadership, and its possession of nuclear weapons, Pakistan has the possibility of becoming the centre of a massive regional conflict. The greatest impacts would be upon India and Afghanistan, but China also has extensive BRI investments in the nation. Just as the US seems to be intentionally handicapping the European economies to remove Europe as both a possible competitor and ally to its “enemy” Russia, as US leadership in Asia keeps drifting away could it trigger a massively destructive conflict in the middle of Asia? Such a move would be a classic offshore balancing tactic, creating chaos to stop the integration of Asia. In an unpublished novel that I wrote in 2016, I saw a conflict between India and Pakistan, driven by the latter’s elites looking to turn the populace’s focus outward, that became nuclear and was stopped from escalating further by joint China-US actions. This may have been too optimistic, as the US may be happy to see such a conflict escalate; especially as it loses more ground in Asia and India continues to refuse to be its ally against China and supports Russia.
The other possible area of conflict is of course Taiwan, which some in the US are working hard to trigger. As Trump is in line with the neocons in seeing China as the greatest threat to the US that needs to be defeated, US antagonism over Taiwan will not be affected by the upcoming US elections; with a Trump victory possibly leading to a greater level of US provocation. Taiwan has presidential and legislative elections in January 2024, the outcome of which may lead to either a reduction in tensions (a KMT win) or a further escalation (a DPP win). The mishandling of domestic issues by the incumbent DPP together with its escalation of tensions with China are seen as aiding support for the KMT opposition, reflected in the bad showing of the DPP in the 2022 local elections. The very recently formed TPP is a wild card, as it has focused more on removing the KMT/DPP duopoly than on foreign policy issues, its leader’s recent statements are in support of the status-quo (de facto but not de jure independence) and therefore a lessening of tensions with China. He has attacked the DPP as being the “pro-war” party. A victory for either the KMT or the TPP would tend to remove Taiwan as a major flash point until the last 2020s, when circumstances may be very different.
In the Middle East, we are seeing a generational shift away from US dominance. The negotiated peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brought into existence by Chinese and Russian diplomacy and US arrogance, removes the core route for US destabilization. The regional acceptance of Syria’s Assad also paves the way for the removal of US troops and influence from Syria and Iraq. With the victory of Turkey’s Erdogan in the most recent elections, against Western-leaning opponents, the stage is set for the resolution of the Syrian crisis on terms highly unfavourable to the US. Peace may very well break out in the Middle East, with regional economic integration and development helped by Chinese capital. This is a big win for the RIC (Russia, Iran, China) deepening alliance, which has only been strengthened by the Western proxy war in Ukraine. Erdogan will be increasingly forced to move toward Russia and Iran to survive, given the probable Western intensification of regime change operations and economic warfare (they never learn!) and the resulting need for Chinese and Russian markets and capital.
With the mass-outbreak of Russia-hating in Europe and their conscious cutting of ties with Russia since the start of the Western proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, the latter has turned fundamentally east. Therefore, I have decided to include Russia (and Belarus and Ukraine) as part of Asia. Belarus was stabilized and brought within the Russian fold after the failed Western regime change operation of 2020 and is now even more protected with the staging of nuclear missiles on its territory. People watching the Western media and using Western social media are generally ignorant of the reality that Russia is winning the Ukraine war, with most of the professional Ukrainian military already destroyed. What is left is a core of about 70,000 Western trained and equipped men, together with up to 20,000 mercenaries and foreign legionnaires (especially Poles). Once this is destroyed by the Russians, which any attempt at a “Summer Offensive” by the Ukrainians will greatly aid, we may see much greater Russian actions as all that will be left will be lightly trained troops with small groupings of true professionals and fascist true believers.
The summer and fall may become a pivotal point for Ukraine, as internal collapse starts to take hold and European willingness to provide support wanes. Significant Russian gains would only make the Western predicament even greater, adding to the robustness and recent growth of the Russian economy and the cost-effectiveness of Russian operations in Ukraine (3% of Russian GDP). At the same time, the US election cycle will start to have an increasing impact, especially if Trump remains the Republican front runner. This year may be the last chance for the US neoconservatives to push for a further escalation before Ukraine needs to leave the headlines during the latter half of 2024. The ease of the Russian destruction of the Western wunderwaffe (wonder weapons), most recently with the Patriot batteries in Kiev, may serve to bring some sense to Western leaders; as well as negative impacts on foreign sales as US weapons are exposed as ridiculously expensive profit generators with combat effectiveness coming a distant second to profits. The ability of Russia to rapidly ramp up its war production also points to its much greater industrial capacity and the much greater efficiency and effectiveness of its Military Industrial Complex. The Russian leadership also enjoys extremely high levels of public support, making any Western ideas of regime pure fantasies.
In the Caucasus, the Western dominance of Georgia is now open to question. Although massive internal interference (which did fail to topple the government) and threats of economic sanctions stopped the government from passing legislation to limit such foreign interference, the fact that the majority party would put forward such a law points to a new political reality in Georgia. As Europe continues to decline, and Russia continues to succeed, the West may lose another pawn on Russia’s periphery. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may continue, but it will be limited by Iran, Turkey and Russia (including a recent threat by Iran to Azerbaijan with respect to any further outbreak in hostilities).
In the past few years the West has failed at regime change in Kazakhstan and Belarus and had to completely withdraw from Afghanistan. Erdogan has been re-elected in Turkey and the Middle East is turning away from the West. In addition, Russia has successfully survived Western sanctions and is now thriving while very economically winning the war in Ukraine and exposing the severe shortcomings of Western arms and its MIC in general. Western actions have also served to very much tighten relations between Russia, China and Iran, whilst completely failing at stopping the ongoing growth and economic upgrading of China. Against such losses, the small gains in Myanmar, Malaysia and Thailand pale. With the January 2024 Taiwan elections, the West may even lose Taiwan as a pawn.
The mid-decade may be a critical period with respect to West-RIC conflict in Asia, on par with the period leading up to World War 1. Just as Germany saw its window for action closing as its competitors (especially Russia) industrialized, the West sees its window for action closing as Asia consolidates as a zone of peace with Chinese and Russian leadership. The possibility of a defenestration of the Japanese car industry by EV manufacturers (Chinese producers and Tesla), significantly weakening the Japanese economy, would only intensify the sense of urgency in the West. Whether it be Taiwan, Pakistan or through a large escalation in Ukraine, or in some other venue, the West will be looking for some conflict that can be used to stop the creation of an aligned and independent-of-the-West Asian bloc.
An independent variable is the impacts of climate change, especially on Pakistan, India and the Middle East which are hotspots for such impacts. With 2023 and 2024 shaping up to become El Nino years, and with anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations continuing to increase at record rates (when including methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases), the mid-decade may produce significant nasty surprises. By the end of the decade, the El Nino highs of 2023 and 2024 may be the new normal. Another driver of possible destabilization, unrest and conflict in the region.
"..In Malaysia’s 2022 election the ex-Vice President Leni Robredo, a beneficiary of the Western funded NGO-complex, was beaten by Bongbong Marcos .."
Not Malaysia.