The Ukrainian Slow Death

More Cannon Fodder Required by the Western Masters

I have not written about the Ukrainian war for a couple of months and in the interim period my views have darkened. The utter commitment of the Ukrainian vassal leadership and their Western masters to fight “to the last Ukrainian” is fully on display, and unfortunately the Ukrainian regime does seem to have the ability to control the nation for now. The result is an intensifying slaughter, as the Ukrainian military wanes and the Russian military waxes, as I detail below.

German Hitler Youth off to fight the Russian Army

The Russians have perfected the process of advancing at a steady controlled pace while limiting their own casualties, as shown by the Mediazona numbers. During the whole of the war Russian military deaths are below 78,000 (and 1,842 between Sept. 26th and Oct. 10th; 2 weeks) according to Mediazona’s “recorded names” methodology which explicitly identifies deaths from obituaries, social media posts etc. That is 132 a day, or 4,015 per month. These numbers do not include deaths of soldiers from the Ukrainian oblasts that voted to be integrated into Russia.

More recently, Mediazona has included a parallel set of numbers based upon a “probate registry estimate” which produces somewhat higher numbers, of 120,000 for the whole war and 39,000 stated to be for the period between March 14th and July 4th on the Mediazona site. This new methodology was developed with Meduza, and when I checked on their site it stated that the 39,000 deaths were for the first six months of 2024, not for the second three months. As Meduza is the detailed source I will use their timeframe, which is 173 days; producing a death rate of 225 per day and 6,844 per month. An estimate considered to be a more thorough one than the named deaths methodology.

If we assume a standard 3:1 wounded to dead ratio, then Russian casualties in the first half of 2024 can be estimated at 900 per day, 27,375 per month and 328,500 per year; a rate that Meduza has noted is higher then in 2023. We can use Midiazona’s “recorded names” methodology to see if Russian war deaths have increased in the second half of 2024, and from those we can see a declining trend; a trend that can be assumed to be representative of overall casualties. With the Russian army having access to adequate medical resources at the front, and vehicles and helicopters to evacuate wounded individuals to rear areas quickly and effectively, many of the injuries and related infections may be treated before they become disabling. Therefore, a significant number of the wounded will be able to return to service and therefore not represent long-term losses.

Taking the official Russian numbers for Ukrainian casualties, which only cover losses at the front line and not in the rest of country due to Russian bombs and missiles, we get a current number of about 70,000 a month. Ukrainian casualties had been more at the level of 30,000 per month through 2022, 2023 and the early months of 2024 before escalating rapidly in the past 6 months. The Wall Street Journal has reported Ukrainian casualties of 80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded for the whole war but this seems to be very significantly lower than reality given the colossal growth in the number and scale of Ukrainian military cemeteries. A realistic number is probably over one million casualties, with at least 250,000 dead (approx. 3 wounded to every 1 dead).

A very significant proportion of the wounded may also be irretrievably so given the lack of adequate medical supplies and treatment at the Ukrainian front lines (not helped by widespread corruption and theft), insanitary and polluted conditions at the front lines, and the lack of vehicles and helicopters for transport; made worse by the destructive nature of modern weapons. The Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy has previously reported that in the first 18 months of the war the number of disabled Ukrainians increased by 300,000. Now there may be some corruption involved to dodge military service, but that may be more than balanced by both emigration and deaths; so I will treat this figure as a good representation of the position 14 months ago. During the intervening period things have only worsened, so a figure of 600,000 disabled is reasonable; for a total of 850,000 irretrievable losses including deaths. Then we can add significant number of desertions, that have been estimated at as high as 200,000; making for about a million losses and AWOL not returning to the front. Conditions at the front have deteriorated significantly for the Ukrainian soldiers, who are receiving little if any respite from the front lines, as this report notes:

Low morale caused by exhaustion is the main reason. Soldiers complain of having to grind through for days on end under heavy fire without a pause because there is no one to relieve them. Those on the front lines have told the media that they have gone from battle to battle with little rest since Russia’s invasion in 2022 …

Some criticise the conscription decree as a whole for its seeming rigidity: there are no legal ways to leave the military as a conscript, unless under special circumstances such as raising a minor or a child with a disability or caring for a spouse with a disability or severe sickness.

In addition to a lack of munitions and other supplies, and an increasing lack of numbers versus the ever increasing Russians:

Alongside the mental and physical fatigue that many soldiers are suffering from prolonged periods at the front line, the Ukrainian army has to deal with inadequate weaponry and ammunition as well …

Crucially, soldiers say they are poorly armed and complain of having the enemy in sight, watching them advance, and being unable to fire because they have no ammunition, according to accounts from soldiers reported by CNN. Many said they felt guilt for not being able to provide infantry units with adequate cover. Commanders have also told journalists that they have been forced to watch men from entire units die in the war because of the weapons shortage.

Of course, as with all Western oriented media - even Al Jazeera (at least with respect to the Ukraine-Russia war) - there has to be the few paragraphs of bullshit about how “its just as bad for the Russians”; which is the opposite of reality.

The current rate of Russian casualties will be at or below 25,000 per month, against 70,000 for the Ukrainians; with many more Russian casualties being able to return to the front and not irretrievably disabled. Why the recent reduction in Russian, and the escalation in Ukrainian casualties? Firstly, the Ukrainian military have lost quite colossal amounts of aircraft, tanks, other armoured vehicles and artillery during the war. During 2022 and 2023 these losses were being made up by the West, but the wave of replacements has significantly dried up in the past year; resulting in a severe diminution of all types of equipment and munitions. In parallel, the fully equipped strength of the Russian army has been very significantly growing with the Russians now enjoying an overwhelming superiority in fixed wing aircraft, helicopters, tanks, other armoured vehicles and artillery. Most recently, Russia has even gained the upper hand in drones; an area where Ukraine previously enjoyed an advantage. The Ukrainian excursion toward Kursk has only intensified this problem, as much of the remaining equipment reserves were used in it and therefore needlessly squandered; as well as some of the best remaining soldiers.

In addition, the Russians have taken a large number of the Ukrainian heavily fortified towns and villages that date back to the start of the conflict a decade ago, such as Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Konstyantynivka, and recently even Niu York and Ugledar; with the remaining areas of Toretsk soon to fall and Katerynivka, Selydove and Chasiv Yar in the process of being stormed by the Russians and Kurakhove and Pokrovsk soon to follow. The latest update from Weeb Union:

The landscape is also opening up to the west, changing from industrialized towns and villages among rolling hills to a much more flat and agricultural landscape. This forces the Ukrainian soldiers into much more exposed positions which are less easily defensible and provide less personal protection. Finally, the quality and quantity of the Ukrainian soldiers has been rapidly deteriorating as the most committed and experienced ones from the beginning of the war have been killed, wounded, or simply ground down by more than two and a half years of continuous fighting without respite (the Russian soldiers are regularly rotated out of the front line). The limited replacements are increasingly of the press-ganged variety with little training and even less motivation; with many taking a one-way journey to a swift death at the front lines.

The Ukrainian government, and its Western bosses, are now so desperate for new cannon fodder that they have both extended the press-gangs to the previously protected areas of Kiev and the Bandera heartlands of Western Ukraine, and have begun pushing for the conscription age to be reduced to include all 18-25 year olds. This has led to a significant exodus of the remaining 15-17 year old males in recent months, as only those over 18 are blocked from leaving the country, a demographic that was already perhaps less than half of its small officially reported 2024 size. With such a depleted 15-17 age group there will be relatively few 18 year birthdays being celebrated in Ukraine in the next few years.

We can assume that the real population under Ukraine state control is less than half of that above, with the decline being concentrated among the younger more mobile population; the one most depleted by the collapse in births from the start of the 1990s onwards. There are also an increasing number of Ukrainian women being seen at the front lines. Truly “fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian”.

We must remember that Ukraine even at its peak had a population that was about a third of Russia’s. With the extensive pre and post-war emigration waves and demographic losses (deaths significantly higher than births since the early 1990s) together with the loss of the populations in the new Russian oblasts, the Ukrainian state probably controls a population of around 15 million. Heavily skewed toward the old and infirm, given the much greater propensity of the young to emigrate and the collapse in birth rates since the 1990s. Russia has a population of 144 million, plus the populations of the new Russian oblasts. The inability of Ukraine to anywhere near equal Russian military resources is made even worse by the reality of large numbers of Ukrainian men actively hiding from the press gangs; with those press gangs becoming more extreme to make their numbers. As newly raised cannon fodder falls more and more short of the irretrievable losses and AWOLs, the Ukrainian army shrinks (perhaps by 100,000 since the start of the summer) and the regime becomes more and more desperate for new parts of the population to feed into the meat grinder at the front. While the western borders are guarded to keep Ukrainians in, not the Russians out.

It is obvious that the West, through their Ukrainian vassals, are happy to bleed Ukraine dry to keep their proxy war with Russia going. Dragging out the slow death of Ukraine, which is now entering a winter period with severe electricity and heating shortages and a continual escalation to even greater levels of casualties as the Russian army continues to gain strength. Even the BBC is airing increasingly dark reports from Russia, as Britain acts as the greatest supporter for the Ukrainian national suicide.

The Western oligarchy has started to talk about a negotiated settlement, but its proposals are completely unrealistic given both the sacrifices and successes that the Russian military and people have had since the start of the war. That oligarchy has also repeatedly shown itself to be utterly unethical and untrustworthy when it comes to such agreements. Even with a Trump presidency, Trump’s assumptions about the “peace with honour” that he can get Putin to agree to are utterly delusional.

After being rebuffed, as Putin can be expected in no way to “lose the victory on the negotiating table” and the Russian requirement for the removal of all sanctions seems designed to be a poison pill, Trump will find himself in the same place as Biden. Unable to escalate for a full victory given the probable path to WW3 and unable to accept the peace terms offered by the Russians; the same quandary that the US found itself in Vietnam until forced to accept its defeat. Just as in Vietnam, the West views defeat in Ukraine in nearly apocalyptic geopolitical terms, as evidenced in a recent report from Chatham House:

The moral authority of the US and its allies would be in tatters as countries in other parts of the world reflected on the meaning of assurances by G7 member states to support a country in distress ‘for as long as it takes’. NATO’s cohesion would also be severely tested with Central European member states confronted by a marked deterioration of their security situation and uncertain of US commitment to mutual defence.

A restatement of the Vietnam-era “domino theory”. The West will not willingly give Russia what it wants, so Russia will continue fighting until it gets it - most probably at least to the Dniepr, Odessa and Transnistria. We may expect an attempt to fundamentally “change the facts on the ground” prior to the swearing in of the new US president on January 20th (3 months from the present), by the Russians given the weakening strength of the Ukrainian military. At the same time, Zelensky has no real plan for victory and refuses to negotiate (probably linked to the Azov radicals’ statements about killing anyone who negotiates). His “plan for victory” resembles more a sad attempt at blackmail of the West through the hollow threat to produce a domestic nuclear weapon.

One would hope that at some point the Ukrainian army or society will break and surrender, but the utterly psychopathic nature of Ukraine’s Western bosses and the brutality and commitment of the fascist regime may string the agony out for a while yet. And with it the next wave of cannon fodder, the relatively small cohort of 18-25 year olds that represent the future of the nation, may be needlessly sent to the slaughter house. What after that, the child battalions reminiscent of the last days of the Third Reich?

The work of the Western oligarchy: an ongoing mass genocide in Gaza and a national “suicide by Russia” in Ukraine.