The Last Of The Ukrainian Deep Fortifications

Since the Western-funded and supported 2014 coup in which the democratically elected president of Ukraine was overthrown due to his unwillingness to sign a neo-colonial agreement with the European Union, a number of massively fortified positions have been developed by the Ukrainian Army along the Donbass front. Many benefitting from the industrial infrastructure of the region and the reinforced nature of much of the Soviet-era structures built to withstand a nuclear war.

In the past months many of those positions have been overcome by the Russians, whether it be in Avdiivka, Pisky/Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka (the defeat of which is being completed), Marinka, and Novomykhailivka. The last major area of these fortifications is the Toretsk/Niu-York agglomeration (map from Southfront):

Since the start of the war in February 2022, very little progress has been made by the Russians in this area. With the fall of Avdiivka to the south of the agglomeration, and the probable fall of Chasiv Yar to the north, there is a threat of a flanking pincer movement from both directions to create a pocket. What the Ukrainian forces seem to have under-estimated, as with Avdiivka, is an attack directly at the centre of the a agglomeration. The best troops were moved to defend the flanks and others moved north to defend against the Russian incursion north of Kharkov.

The Russian military attacked and took control of the village of Shumy, which lay between Toretsk and the Russian lines, and advanced all the way to the edges of the built up area of the city. The Russian forces are now entering the first building of the suburbs of Druzhba and Pivinchne (to the north), and Zaline (to the centre-south). They are within 2km of the centre of Toretsk. Weeb Union covers the details below (from 1.02 minutes):

This opens yet another area of the front that the Ukrainians must attempt to defend, just as with Avdiivka, as the loss of this area would immediately threaten the southern flank of Konstyantynivka; which is the southern end of the Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstyantynivka defensive line. It would also remove a heavily fortified area that benefits from heavy industrialization and a higher elevation, in which a relatively small group can hold off a much larger group. Looking at the topographic map of Ukraine below, we can see that the areas that are being taken around Donetsk (and Ugledar) represent the remaining high ground before the elevation starts to fall away to the west. The areas west of Donetsk are also much more rural than industrial, providing much less avenues for fortified strongholds.

We can therefore expect the Toretsk/Niu York agglomeration to turn into another Bakhmut/Avdiivka style meat-grinder to add to the new one formed north of Kharkov. The same may also go for, on a smaller scale, Ugledar in the south; which is slowly being cut off from its main supply route. Both areas will be subject to an even more intense bombardment than was Avdiivka, especially with the increased availability of the cheap retro-fitted 250, 500, and 1500 kg guided glide bombs and the new 3000 kg guided bomb; Russia has vast amounts of such Soviet-era dumb bombs that can be converted for less than US$20,000 (vs. US$1 million+ for each US specialized glide bomb). Heavily reinforced fortifications may offer relatively little protection to such weapons; during the battle of Avdiivka up to 20 such bombs per hour were being dropped on the small citadel area.

Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian front-line air defence systems that used to threaten the Russian planes that launch such glide bombs from 40-50km plus away from the front line. Until recently it was the FAB 1500 that was seen as a “monster”, but now the FAB 3000 is being introduced into the war: which causes a blast radius of up to 900 metres.

The shock wave of the bomb will also travel through the ground, destroying nearby underground structures and the people with in them. Add to these, the bombardment by Russian artillery, including the TOS “flame-thrower” systems, together with the ever proliferating supply of Russian drones. The intensity of the “meat-grinder” may be significantly greater than that of Avdiivka.

In the notes section of my substack, I regularly take samples of the daily losses of the Ukrainian Army, as reported by the Russian military. The reported losses, which may be somewhat of an undercount (they do not count losses away from the immediate front line), are now averaging between 1500 and 2000 per day (45,000 to 60,000 per month), with the Russian military constantly increasing the pressure. With the new meat-grinder being put in place how higher will these losses escalate to; 3,000 per day?

In such an industrial slaughterhouse with one side enjoying massive, and increasing, material advantages such numbers are eminently conceivable. Within a few months Toretsk/Niu-York, Ugledar and Chasiv Yar may be have been taken, and with them 150,000 plus Ukrainian lives and functional bodies; together with perhaps a couple of thousand artillery pieces and much of the remaining small supply of armoured vehicles. Then the Russian military will face a predominantly infantry-based severely depleted Ukrainian army predominantly staffed by little-trained soldiers who were forced into service, with little in the way of remaining fortified strongholds and industrialized areas; with the Russians advancing from the high ground.

The question becomes, “at what point will the Ukrainian army break?”; i.e. when will significant chunks of the Ukrainian army descend into full scale retreat toward the Dniepr and/or major surrender events. The latter perhaps driven by senior officers no longer willing to see their soldiers slaughtered for a lost cause. In response, we see an increasingly desperate Ukraine and West resorting to escalating levels of terror attacks; such as the recent one aimed at Russian beach goers and religious figures. The Russian leadership must maintain its focus, the destruction of the Ukrainian army as a fighting force, rather than be swayed off course by such terrorist provocations. Ukraine and the West are like dead men walking, they just cannot believe that they have already lost the war.