The La Nina Calm Before The El Nino Climate Change Storm

In the South East Pacific there is a climatological pattern called the El Nino South Oscillation (ENSO). During its La Nina (“the girl” in Spanish) periods, vast amounts of colder waters are brought to the surface in the SE Pacific. These serve to both pull heat from the atmosphere and change the global carbon cycle to release less carbon dioxide, reducing both temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (or at least the increase in those levels driven by anthropogenic emissions) on a global scale. During the El Nino (“the boy” in Spanish) periods, the surface of the SE Pacific is warmer than normal, transferring heat to the atmosphere and changing the global carbon cycle to release more carbon dioxide; the opposite of the La Nina. In between there are neutral periods, where the SE Pacific waters are neither warmer nor colder than average.

So, in a La Nina period the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide and global average surface temperatures should be reduced and during an El Nino period the opposite should happen. The last significant El Nino period was late 2015/early 2016 with global average surface temperatures reaching 1.14C and 1.28C above the 1880-1920 baseline respectively, and global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rising 2.96ppm and 2.83ppm annually in those years; after a rise of only 2.05ppm (and a temperature of 1.04C) in 2014 during a neutral period. After that event, the SE Pacific experienced a small La Nina (late 2016 to early 2018), a small El Nino (late 2018 to early 2020) and since then a deeper La Nina. In 2017 and 2018, atmospheric CO2 increased by 2.16ppm and 2.30ppm, less than during the El Nino, but not representing as big a reduction than could have been expected; global temperatures were 1.18C and 1.11C above the 1880-1920 baseline. In 2019 atmospheric CO2 rose 2.57ppm and in 2020 2.35ppm (that year included the COVID lockdowns that reduced anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions), with global temperatures reaching 1.24C and 1.28C above the baseline respectively. Affected by the ensuing deeper La Nina, 2021 saw global temperatures of only 1.11C above the baseline, with atmospheric carbon dioxide increasing by 2.6ppm (perhaps affected by the global post-COVID economic re-openings).

   Year             ENSO               Temperature   CO2 Increase

2014 mild La Nina 1.04C 2.05ppm

2015. Major El Nino. 1.14C 2.96ppm

2016. Major El Nino. 1.28C. 2.83ppm

2017. mild La Nina. 1.18C. 2.16ppm

2018. mild La Nina. 1.11C. 2.30ppm

2019. mild El Nino. 1.24C. 2.57ppm

2020. mild El Nino. 1.28C 2.35ppm

2021. Deeper La Nina. 1.11C. 2.60ppm

Why should the above be so worrying? Somewhat simplistically, if we average the small La Nina and the following small El Nino values, we should roughly get the underlying trend figures. The averages for those four years (2017 to 2020) are 1.2C and 2.35ppm. Some may argue that the former figure is slightly too high as the 2020 skies had less cooling sulfur particles due to the COVID shutdown, and that the latter figure is slightly too low due to the lower anthropogenic emissions; but these are just small quibbles. The reality told by those two figures tells the underlying story, that the biggest story should not be COVID, Ukraine or even the Johnny Depp trial but climate change; when in fact climate change is rarely a front-page story. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions reached a new peak in 2021, while the rate of increase in atmospheric methane levels has more than trebled in the past decade. Humanity is not dealing with climate change, it is continuing to press its foot on the accelerator, no matter what specious “targets” or “commitments” political leaders throw out.

If between 2021 and 2030, global temperatures rise the same 0.22C that they did between 2011-2020 versus 2001-2010 on average, by 2030 the baseline global temperature would be 1.44C; a fair assumption given the higher yearly rises in CO2 and the much more rapid rises in methane. A baseline of 1.5C in 2030 is quite possible. During a significant El Nino period, global average surface temperatures could then be 1.75C for a single year and exceed 2C for one or more months. This is well into the territory of triggering irreversible climate change feedbacks, less than 10 years from now. Climate change is not a generational issue, it is an issue in the here and now that requires immediate massive scale emergency action – but you wouldn’t know that from listening to our political leaders and the MSM.

Notes:

For global average surface temperatures, I use the NASA/GISS website and add 0.256C to adjust from their baseline to the 1880-1920 “pre-industrial” baseline. It has been argued that an additional 0.2C should be added to get to a truer pre-industrial baseline of 1750 but that would be very problematic for some very important people, so it is not used officially.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

For atmospheric greenhouse gas levels and increases I use the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory website.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html