Since before the mid-2010s I have reviewed the yearly solar and wind industry sales figures, and the five year sales forecasts, and found them to be existing in a different reality to that of the eco-modernist boosters. In fact, since that time all of the growth in wind and solar (and biomass, hydro, geothermal, and nuclear) has not been able to reduce the usage of fossil fuels, nor reduce global CO2 emissions (let alone overall greenhouse gas emissions, GHGs). And the fossil fuel industry boondoggle of carbon capture and storage keeps ever giving to the propaganda and profits of that industry while providing next to nothin in actual CO2 reductions.
The only bright spot in this area has been China, the very China that the US is now complaining has “too much capacity” in the green industries. The exact opposite is actually true of course, the globe needs much, much more capacity in the green industries and the failure of US capitalism to develop these is a major issue for the US ruling class; also something to do with the dominance of the fossil fuel industry on both sides of the US duo-party.
Wind Energy
The capacity of global wind energy new installations is forecast by the Global Wind Energy Council to grow at about 9.4% per year from 2023 to 2028, which will result in the overall installed capacity base growing at about 12% per year - a doubling rate of 6 years. In 2022 wind provided 7.33% of global electricity generation, so the equivalent of that will be added by 2028. Global electricity generation is growing at about 2% per year, so in 6 years it will grow by 12%.
When we look at individual nations it becomes very apparent that China is leading the wind power pack by a very wide margin. In 2023, China more than doubled the amount of new installed capacity year-on-year, leading to a nearly 21% increase in its overall installed capacity. The US managed only 4.8% growth in overall installed capacity, and when combined with weaker than normal mid-West winds this lead to the first fall in US wind energy generation in 25 years; with the US only having one third of the installed capacity of China. Europe hardly did any better, growing overall installed capacity by about 7%; now with an installed base only 58% that of China. The latter has more wind capacity in place that the US and Europe combined.
Solar Energy
The capacity of global solar energy new installations is forecast by Solar Power Europe to grow at 11% per year from 2023 to 2026 in their medium scenario, which will result in the overall installed capacity growing at about 15% per year - a doubling rate of 5 years. In 2022, solar power provided about 4.5% of global electricity generation, so the equivalent of that will be added by 2027. With global electricity generation growing by 12% by 2028, that means that all of the addition of wind and solar generation will simply offset the growth in global generation until 2028. The additions of net new hydro, biomass and nuclear capacity is small enough not to significantly affect this reality.
When we look at individual nations it becomes very apparent that China is leading the solar power pack by a very wide margin. In 2023, China increased the amount of new installed capacity by two and half times year-on-year, leading to a 55% increase in its overall installed capacity. The US managed only 22% growth in overall installed capacity; with the US having 22% of the installed capacity of China. Europe hardly did any better, growing overall installed capacity by about 23%; now with an installed base only 47% that of China. The latter has nearly one and a half times more solar capacity in place that the US and Europe combined.
The massive ongoing growth in the rate of new Chinese wind and solar capacity means that it may well peak its overall (i.e. both from the electricity generating and other economic sectors) carbon dioxide emissions in 2024, and those emissions will decline from then on, while GDP growth continues at about 5% per annum. The electricity generating sector is only responsible for about 40% of the total energy related global emissions. That’s why the electrification of other sectors of the economy is so important, such as transportation and space heating. China is also a leader in electrification.
Many nations have claimed reductions in space heating and cooking carbon dioxide emissions by switching to natural gas, but this is a false saving due to the related leaks of methane at the well head, in the distribution network, and by the natural gas appliances. The global warming effect of these methane emissions overwhelm the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions with respect to coal use, meaning that natural gas is worse than coal with respect to global warming. This reality has been studiously ignored by governments, the media and corporations, even though it means that natural gas is a bridge fuel to climate change catastrophe; and of course fossil fuel industry profits.
Electrification
The Chinese personal vehicle market hit a 50% EV market share in April, far ahead of the US (7% for BEV ) and European (20%) car markets, with over two thirds of global EV sales being in China. The distance between the US, Europe and China is actually widening year over year as Chinese sales continue to grow quickly. China also leads in the level of urbanized transport electrification (taxis, buses, subways, trams) and in the electrification of the train system. Including the use of high speed trains that greatly reduce the need for the long car journeys seen in North America, and the high use of aircraft travel seen in North America and to a lesser extent in Europe.
A significant incentive for the Chinese electrification of transport is the resulting reduction in the reliance upon seaborne imported oil that can be interdicted by the US during a conflict. With an already extensive infrastructure of electrified transport, together with an ever increasing fleet of electric vehicles, a significant reduction in oil use could be implemented with only limited economic consequences. At some point, perhaps by 2030, China will be able to completely rely on domestic oil production, pipeline supplies from Central Asia and Russia, and seaborne supplies from Russia; removing the Straits of Malacca as a vulnerable choke point. China also has a very large strategic oil reserve that could last for up to two years, a period that will only increase as China reduces its dependence on seaborne oil imports.
Another incentive is to be a leader in the green energy sectors of the future such as wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power, hydro, smart networks, electrified mass transit, electric vehicles, and batteries. The complaints about Chinese “over-capacity” in these areas is really a complaint about how successful China has been in building up these sectors, and how backward the US remains in them.
To underline the Chinese commitment to electrifying its transport system it has launched the world’s largest battery powered container ship, already operating regularly between Shanghai and Nanjing.
Another Reputational Win for China
With China most probably peaking its emissions this year and then reducing them yearly after that, while maintaining economic growth of 5% per annum, its reputation as a clean energy leader and powerhouse will spread around the world. In stark contrast to a US that has ramped up oil and natural gas production since 2010, with a pathetic national railway network, a rapidly ageing nuclear fleet, and a faltering move to electric vehicles. The belated attempts at a clean energy industrial policy through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) protectionist subsidies are too little too late, suffer from the usual US corruption and profiteering, and could well be cancelled during a Trump presidency.
The Eco-Modernist Climate Disaster Continues
So another six years of not reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at the global level; at a time when even the conservative UN IPCC calls for significant year on year reductions. The only way that could be achieved is through a global binding compact through which the rich nations agreed to significantly decrease emissions (which would require reductions in GDP and state-directed industrial policies), the mid-tier nations agreed to freeze/reduce emissions, and the poor nations were allowed to increase their meagre emissions. As that is not about to happen, we will continue until a true crisis hits; at which point China will be much better equipped to make the necessary changes, as forecast in my novel. That is of course if the crisis does not lead to a loss of modern industrial civilization.
Maybe. This is all top down solution. The problem IS ‘modern industrial civilization’. It seems oxymoronic to me to use the thing that causes the imbalance to fix the imbalance. At some point we, as a species, will be forced to choose between a path that enforces status quo consensus or one that sees truth as an evolving feature of a temporal naturalism. I think we are right at that split. But hey what do I know, just a bumpkin that has lived at the end of 3 miles of dirt road for 35 years.🤷
Hope you are right, and the eventually IPCC confirms that China’s GHG emissions peaked in 2024. That would be wonderful. A good reason to celebrate …