The Donbass Salient and WW2 Normandy, the Parallels

On June 6th, 1944, the Western Allies landed on the French Normandy coast. They faced the fortifications that the German army had spent years building, together with a geography of small towns and hedgerow-bounded fields; an environment that lent itself to the advantage of a defensive war. It took to the end of July for the Allies to break out from Normandy, even with absolute air superiority and a great advantage in numbers. The Allies utilized extensive carpet bombing, and the destruction of supply routes, to aid the breakout. Once the breakout was achieved, the Allies advanced at a rapid rate only stopped by supply chain and supporting column issues; stopping at the Rhine. This is an excellent documentary on Operation Cobra, which lead to the breakout from Normandy.

In the Donbass, the Ukrainian army has had six years at least to build its fortifications, and the numerous towns and villages facilitate a network of supporting strongholds. Faced with this, the Russians have utilized massive, but focused, artillery and missile bombardments. In addition, supply routes have been destroyed using missiles and air power. At no time has Russia utilized the kind of carpet bombing that the Allies used in Normandy. The Ukrainians have made a huge error in feeding more and more troops into the killing fields of the Donbass salient, which the Russians have used as an area of destruction for Ukrainian forces. After months of such destruction even experienced soldiers will buckle and then break, and that is what seems to be happening in the Donbass salient.

We may be close to the collapse of the Ukrainian front around Severodonetsk and a rapid fallback to a line centered on Kramatorsk, a line which is a shadow of the other fortifications of the Donbass. In addition, even the Ukrainian military accept that they have lost at least 50% of their weaponry. The majority of their experienced and well-trained soldiers can be added to this, as evidenced by the increasing usage of little-trained conscripts. We may be seeing the beginnings of the Donbass breakout, which may only stop at the River Dnieper as the Ukrainian front collapses.

The military summary channel provides an excellent update of this growing collapse.