Straws In The Wind: November Edition
The Netherlands Turns To The Right
Geert Wilders, the leader of the Party of Freedom (I don’t think that the name is meant to be ironic, but it is) that is now the largest party in the Dutch House of Representatives, is the usual neoliberal social reactionary conservative who masquerades as an outsider from power who represents the “average Joe” (Henk and Ingrid). His proposed policies are the standard mixture of tax cuts and deregulation, scapegoating immigrants and Muslims, cutting contributions to and the power of the EU, tough on crime, increase in “respect for the family”, “anti-wokeism”, grudging acceptance of climate change, and removal of financial and military support for Ukraine. As with Argentina, a chunk of the public supported a party that will act against its own interests due to exasperation at the inability of the establishment parties to act in their interests.
In a system based upon proportional representation, Wilder’s party gained 23.5% of the vote and 37 seats, with the conservative VVD gaining 15.3% and 24 seats, the conservative FVD 2.2% and 3 seats, the conservative SGP 2.1% and 3 seats, and the conservative JA21 0.7% and 1 seat. That’s 68 seats for a possible conservative coalition, but 76 seats are required for a majority. Wilders may yet be bested by a rival coalition.
Polish Farmers and Truck Drivers Against Ukraine
The Polish greatly benefitted from their entry into the EU, from both massive EU subsidies and the ability to undercut the richer nations in goods and services; with a substantial move of industry to Poland. But now it is being challenged by a much poorer nation, Ukraine, which can undercut it in areas such as agriculture and haulage (as the EU removed limits on Ukrainian truckers). Poland has already banned Ukrainian agricultural imports, as have Slovakia and Hungary, but the haulage issue remains. In response, Polish hauliers are blockading the border against the passage of Ukrainian trucks. They are letting through food and military aid, but even these flows have been greatly reduced due to the 20km tailbacks at the border.
This represents at the most basic political-economic level the tensions between the EU/NATO drive to support Ukraine and expand eastwards and the interests of EU/NATO populations in having government resources delivered to them rather than Ukrainians and protecting their livelihoods against Ukrainian low-priced competition. Support for Ukraine is falling even in Poland as well as other European nations as the war drags on with no apparent prospect of victory. An EU-aligned government has recently replaced a more confrontational one in Poland, but it will be hard for it to gain the population’s support for policies that threaten their livelihoods. The arrogance of the Ukrainian government and the actions and attitudes of some of the Ukrainian refugees has certainly not helped.
It’s interesting that the Western media coverage of the Ukrainian immigrants has greatly dwindled as time has passed, perhaps not so many “heartwarming” stories to cover.
Armenia’s Traitorous Prime Minister
The West has found a new leader that will act against the interests of his own nation, the prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in a Western-supported colour revolution in 2018. In 2020, Russia had saved the Armenians from complete defeat by Azerbaijan and had negotiated a settlement in which Armenia gave back the territory around the Armenian-majority area of Nagorno-Karabakh that it had gained through war in the 1990s. Nagorno-Karabakh remained de facto independent, with a link to Armenia protected by Russian soldiers.
Russia got little thanks from Pashinyan though, who did not seem to understand the need to keep the support of the Russians. Instead, Armenia announced joint military exercises with the US, and hinted at leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of which Russia is the leader and declared Armenian sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh; the latter a red flag to the Azerbaijani bull. The latter acted, overwhelming Nagorno-Karabakh in a day without Armenia even attempting to fight, resulting in the ethnic cleansing of the area. It was almost like Pashinyan wanted to be rid of the territory:
Pashinyan gave the impression of wanting to rid Armenia of the problem of Karabakh, viewing it as an impediment to his desire to turn Armenia politically westwards. Poghosyan notes that Pashinyan’s “primary goal is to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which will decrease the dependence on Russia and bring Armenia closer to the West. From this perspective, Nagorno-Karabakh was more a liability than an asset.” Pashinyan’s detractors, therefore, accuse him of betraying the people of Karabakh in pursuit of his broader pro-Western and anti-Russian political ambitions.
And now the protestors are coming out on the streets against Pashinyan. There is a piece of Azerbaijan that is separated from the main area of the country by Armenian territory, smelling weakness and perhaps a lack of Russian support, will Azerbaijan now move to correct that issue?
Azerbaijan’s main arms supplier has been Israel and Iran has historically supported Armenia. With Armenia turning against Russia (Iran’s ally) and looking to the West (Iran’s enemy) it may lose the support of both Russia and Iran, while at the same time Iran and Azerbaijan are in the process of normalizing relations and building a transport corridor through Iran between the two parts of Azerbaijan. At the same time on Armenia’s northern border, Georgia is moving away from the West and toward Russia. The anger and bitterness in this US establishment article reporting on the Georgian realignment is palpable. With Turkey becoming somewhat estranged from a West that refuses to accept its non-aligned status, and is backing Israel to the hilt in its actions against Gaza, Armenia is in danger of not having any nearby country as an ally.
Newman Newsom For President
The best way to pronounce California Governor Gavin Newsom’s surname is the way that Seinfeld pronounces “Newman”, it embodies the correct level of distaste and displeasure at his dishonesty and bad faith.
A man whose business career depended on family friend Gordon Getty (of the Getty oil family), and his political career to Getty and the arch fixer and corrupter Willie Brown (who also dated and placed in office Kamala Harris). He is the classic economically-neoliberal, culturally liberal Democratic Party operator. His aunt was even married to Pelosi’s brother in law, and his wife is connected in Hollywood and pumps out woke documentaries for children substantially funded by her husband’s own administration. He also had three companies that heftily benefitted from the Feds bailout of the big depositors in Silicon Valley Bank. And of course he is a full on Israel supporter:
Proving his utter hypocrisy and incredibly flexible spine, he repeatedly flouted his own administration’s COVID restrictions (“mistakes”) and recently visited China to be seen in the presence of Xi Jinping:
At least he was up front about not giving a damn about his constituents, only cleaning up San Francisco for the much more important to impress Chinese leader:
He’s like a young Joe Biden, sucking up to the rich, playing culture warrior, doing little or nothing to help the poor, kicking downwards when necessary and of course supporting Israel’s “right to defend itself”. All with an aura of fake caring. Perhaps the US next Presidential couple, they look so honest and trustworthy, don’t they?
Nice article Roger. Indeed plenty of straws in the wind. I can never understand peoples' gullibility in thinking that people like Wilders could give a hoot about their personal wellbeing. They are unprincipled opportunists looking to cause trouble against people that they don't like for personal indulgences.
The idiot in Armenia is another one. He won't be remembered with any fondness by those he is supposedly representing. Get a pat on the back from some US manipulator then trash your own country.
Peoole tend to forget that the cuddly Netherlands was one of the ioneers in imperialist exploitation. While everyone thinks of the Raj and British India the long and incredibly sordid story of the Dutch East Indies somehow escapes attention.
Wilders connections with what is now the most populous muslim nation in the world are likely to have played a part both in shaping his worldview and in bringing support to a party many thought had disappeared when Pim Fortuyn died.