Straws In The Wind March Edition
Having to tell people that you are powerful is a sign of decline
The Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party’s premier newspaper, used a Margaret Thatcher quote to poke fun at the US Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns who at a US Chamber of Commerce event stated that China must accept US leadership in Asia. The quote was “Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't". Burns’ statement says so much about both the delusional hubris of the US foreign policy elite, and their sense of loss as their regional power declines. As with the “loss” of Russia as Putin reasserted that nation’s sovereignty, the “loss” of the domination of Asia produces exasperation and angry demands supported by increasingly aggressive actions.
As I have stated before, the US elite is acting like a mafia boss who sees his power declining. The best policy may be to display some humility and rebuild coalitions, but the Boss simply cannot accept his even slightly lesser position and instead lashes out in ways that accelerate his decline as he shouts, “I am the Boss!” An ambassador’s job is usually seen as the fostering of good relations, but the US sees the role more as that of stern overseer who reminds the lesser nation (with the assumption that all nations are lesser nations compared to the US) when their actions are not acceptable to the West, and that “bad things” may happen if the lesser nation does not mend its ways. Ambassador Burns has fulfilled that role excellently.
During the two unipolar moments (post-WW2 and post-Soviet collapse) the relative power of the US was so overwhelming that the “lesser” nations had to take such statements without complaint (because bad things could happen otherwise). Times have now changed, and US diplomacy needs to change with them. It may need at least a couple of years for such changes to occur given the overwhelming arrogance of the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken and his team. The Global Times quotes a tweet that states “US continues to live in an alternative reality fuelled by hubris," stating that it “hits the nail on the head regarding US' current status”. The Global Times goes on to state that:
Almost one year in office, Burns has increasingly fueled the deterioration of China-US relations. As Washington's megaphone for Beijing, the ambassador has frequently criticized China's policies in public, including on social media. Many of his comments are damaging to US-China relations and inappropriate to his ambassadorship.
And
Nevertheless, politicians like Burns should understand that "pride and prejudice" toward China will only bring more danger and chaos to the region and the world. No matter how harsh they want to sound when talking about China and how assertive when talking about the US, they can never fool other countries by trying to sugarcoat US hegemony as "leadership."
These are harsh words to be used against an ambassador, especially for the diplomatic community and the Chinese state. As we see below, more than just China, Russia and Iran are pushing back against the arrogance and hubris of the declining US.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1286529.shtml
The West disrespects an India hosting the G20, once again bullying its way to a lack of friends in the rest of the world.
For the political elite of a nation, hosting the G20 summit triggers both pride and concern. It is imperative that the meeting goes smoothly and reaches an agreed communique otherwise the hosting country will feel that its’ image has been slighted. The most recent G20 summit was hosted by India, a member of the “Quad” (US, Japan, Australia, India) that the US hopes to utilize to counterbalance the rise of China. Given India’s importance to the Quad one would think that the US would be going out of its way to help India look good. But no, after all this is the US foreign policy elite we are talking about!
India has been a long-term friend of Russia and it would be expected that it would not agree to any language in the communique that condemns Russia. But the US was having none of this and put its foot down that the communique must condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; I imagine a young child throwing a tantrum because they can’t get their way. India was having none of this (as well as Russia and China who are members of the G20) and the end result was no communique; a result that embarrassed the Indians. A meeting of the Quad also took place and the communique that it issued made no condemnation of Russia, again showing the Indian refusal to do such a thing.
The US is becoming more and more exasperated at the audacity of the non-Western nations to continue actively trading with Russia. In the case of India this includes buying discounted Russian oil and “washing” it into non-Russian oil by converting it into oil products or mixing it with oil from other nations. The greater gains that Russia makes in Ukraine, and the continuing stability of the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions, only increases the US exasperation. Its only response seems to be to shout louder and start to throw its toys around. A case being the recent US warning to China that if it dares sell arms to Russia it will be punished; the sheer irony of a US that is pouring money and arms into the conflict demanding of China not to do the same seems to be lost on US officials. The same goes with the US cries of Russia ignoring Ukraine’s sovereignty when its own troops illegally occupy Syria and steal its oil and wheat; even after the recent large earthquake that affected Turkey and Syria. Such actions only darken the image of the US outside its Western allies/vassals.
Some commentators have noted the apparent difference in the recent Indian airport welcome for the Russian foreign minister Lavrov and that for the German foreign minister Baerbock, which the Indians stated was a case of scheduling misunderstandings. Diplomatic snubs are always subtle and mostly denied by the snubbing party. I will let you judge:
To add insult to injury, India imported a record amount of oil from Russia in February, 1.6 million barrels per day – making Russia the largest supplier of oil to India; at the expense of imports from Saudi Arabia and the US.
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/indias-russian-oil-imports-hit-record-high-in-february-now-more-than-iraq-saudi-put-together/article66583237.ece
The growing strength of China and Russia in Africa Discomforts the French
The French (and the West) have dominated much of Africa through colonial and neocolonial relationships for many, many decades. With the increasing relationships of nations in the region with China and Russia their leaders are becoming more strident in rejecting French leaders’ arrogant and demeaning behaviour. This has also been the case with US arrogance from their diplomats and Secretary of State Blinken. The West knows that they are losing influence in Africa but are unable to overcome their neocolonial arrogance to stop their regional decline and are lashing out against the Wagner group and other scapegoats for the result of their own actions. It is obvious that they are simply shocked and non plussed by the “temerity” of their previous vassals to find new friends and even lecture Western officials on their bad attitude. The Duran, as usual covers this well:
Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Hit New Record In 2022
The International Energy Agency reported that in 2022 humanity’s energy-related global CO2 emissions reached a new record of 36.8 Gigatonnes, growing by 0.9% over 2021. The IEA tried to put lipstick on a pig by saying that the rise was less than expected and below the global GDP growth rate of 3.2%, and that renewables provided 90% of the rise in electricity production. But the problem is that our global CO2 emissions still grew; we may have a relative decoupling of GDP and emissions, but we do not have an absolute decoupling. Emissions need to be falling by 5-10% a year to reduce the probability of catastrophic climate change, not rising.
Hidden in the details was the bad news that emissions fell 2.5% in Europe because of the economically catastrophic prices for natural gas (EU natural gas related emission fell by 13.5%) there following the EU self-harming decision to sanction themselves from using cheap Russian natural gas; not a sustainable fall. Energy intensive industries cut back on production and people put on some more clothes at home as they turned down the thermostat, in the latter case helped by a warm La Nina winter. Without that huge drop in EU natural gas emissions the overall picture would have looked considerably worse. Natural gas related emissions also went down in Asia by 1.8% due to the Russian invasion related tight LNG market. In contrast, in North America where there are limited numbers of LNG export terminal and prices stayed low, natural gas emissions went up by 5.8%. With natural gas usage going down, coal use mostly for electricity generation went up, joining oil in a rise in usage.
With atmospheric levels of CO2 rising by around 2ppm in 2022, following 2.35ppm in 2020 and 2.47ppm in 2021, all three of the recent La Nina years have had CO2 levels rising by more than 2%; while the cold water in Eastern Pacific was sucking in more CO2 to the oceans than normal. In the previous comparative La Nina years of 2009 and 2011 atmospheric concentrations of CO2 only rose by 1.61ppm and 1.69ppm respectively; showing a very worrying decadal increase in the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 concentrations of over 0.5ppm. Given that human emissions have not increased by anywhere near the amount required to produce that large a jump, it may be indicative of the Earth System carbon cycle producing more emissions as temperatures have risen. Add to this the continued above trend growth in atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide and 2022 really wasn’t a good year with respect to attempts to stop the warming of the planet. The news of the impending climate catastrophe garnered little news coverage, especially when compared to the news on Ukraine, the shooting down of weather and hobbyist balloons, and whatever Trump’s latest comments were.
The newsworthiness of the coming climate catastrophe (the CCC for those who like using acronyms, or C3 for the mathematically minded) may pick up somewhat this year as at least a good sized El Nino is forecast, which will push natural emissions up (warmer water in the Eastern Pacific will not pull down as much atmospheric CO2) as well as global temperatures (that warmer water will help heat the planet). By early 2023, the global surface temperature may have blasted through 1.5oC above preindustrial times and the rate of yearly growth in CO2 concentrations may be above 3ppm. If the war in Ukraine is still going by then it will still most probably get more press, also possible intensifying US provocations with respect to Taiwan and the upcoming US presidential election.
We should expect to start hearing more and more about geo-engineering as the decade progresses and atmospheric GHG levels continue to climb.
https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3c8fa115-35c4-4474-b237-1b00424c8844/CO2Emissionsin2022.pdf
Republican voters line up behind Trump in resistance to supplying more arms to Ukraine
Donald Trump has consistently been against any provocations that would produce war between Ukraine and Russia, and against the continuation of the war by supplying more arms to Ukraine. This position may have in fact provided Russia with a few extra years to ready itself to be better able to resist Western sanctions and be able to successfully execute a war with Ukraine, as Mrs. Clinton may have been ready to go with such provocations pretty quickly if she had been elected president in 2016. This may be one of the reasons for the Democrats and the establishment media to attack Trump so aggressively and personally.
Well, Republican voters seem to be lining up behind Trump on this issue as he makes repeated statements that he would end the Ukraine war quickly. As they see rising inflation cutting into their real take home pay and other impacts on their standing of living, they may even more increasingly line up with Trump on this issue. If the US economy goes into a deep recession, which is pretty much a given due to the high and rising interest rates, and Russia continues to make gain in Ukraine, US voters may increasingly see aid to Ukraine as taking money that should be spent at home.
Of course, Trump’s overall position is that of US hegemony given his policies toward Iran and China during his time in office. He simply wants to reorient US resources away from Ukraine so that they can be targeted at Iran and China. If Trump runs again for president, the level of “Trump Derangement Syndrome” among the US establishment and its media will be a wonder to behold. The schism between the US internationally oriented capitalist group and the more domestically oriented capitalist group personified in Trump will be on full display to the American people. A big danger will be that the establishment may want to accelerate their plans so that the important things get done before Trump starts his second term; a rapid ramping up of Taiwan related escalations may happen if Trump’s candidacy becomes more of a certainty.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/04/trump-gets-rapturous-reception-major-us-republican-conference/
Western Media Attempt To Spin The Loss Of Bakhmut, Soon To Be Artyomovsk
Over many months, the Russian army has ground its way forward to encircle the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with all of the roads available to the Ukrainian army now under Russian fire. With up to 10,000 Ukrainian troops possibly surrounded, and more 10,000s lost during the defence of the city, its loss will be a significant propaganda victory for Russia. Once it is fully taken, it will go back to its Russian name – Artyomovsk.
So how can the Western media spin this? After all the reporting on the fight for Bakhmut in the Western media the loss of the city cannot be passed off as unimportant, so another line of propaganda is required. So, now we have the “pyrrhic victory” narrative where Russia is said to have lost so huge a number of troops taking the city. CNN is highly adept at spinning such lies:
If and when Bakhmut falls, it may be tempting to ask whether Russian forces are improving, learning from the catalog of mistakes they have made so far in this conflict and finally exploiting their superiority in numbers and firepower. The answer: probably not … The Ukrainians have used Bakhmut to inflict massive losses on the attacking force: by some estimates at a ratio of 7:1.
This is utter rubbish given the massive advantage the Russians have in artillery, drones and air power. The Russian tactics have been to pulverize an area before attempting to take it to reduce Russian casualties while maximizing Ukrainian losses. In addition, the Russian troops attacking Bakhmut are highly experienced, including with urban warfare. The 7:1 ratio or higher is that of the Ukrainian losses vs. Russian losses; i.e. Ukraine is losing many times more soldiers than the Russians. As Alex Mercouris notes, some of the best Ukrainian troops have been ground up in the Bakhmut meat grinder.
The reality is that Ukrainian attempts to hold every village, town and city play right into Russian hands, as it provides geographically stable forces to be targeted and attacked by Russian artillery, drones and aircraft after which mopping up can be carried out by the ground forces. The more the Ukrainians replace losses with new reserves, the more Ukrainian soldiers die, and the fewer experienced and skilled fighters are left and the fewer armoured vehicles the Ukrainian army possesses; hence the desperate Ukrainian calls for more armoured fighting vehicles and tanks. This process may grind on for months, as it is certainly working for the Russians, until the Ukrainian army is bled relatively dry and Russian offensives can be expected to meet with much less resistance than previously. The taking of the strongholds of Bakhmut, Torestk/New York agglomeration, Avdiivka, Maryinka and Ugledar by the Russians will also remove the strongest defensive structures that Ukraine possesses.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/europe/russia-ukraine-bakhmut-analysis-intl/index.html
More Tesla Price Cuts
The huge price cuts in Europe in January do not seem to have spurred extra demand, with Tesla’s European order backlog shrinking toward zero and inventory building up. The result has been another price cut, 6% this time, to try to clear the inventory. With SIC (MG brand) and Geely (Volvo, Polestar, Lynk & Co. brands) increasing market share in Europe (Chinese owned brands took more than a 10% share of the European EV market in January), and BYD etc. ramping up their presence, expect Europe to become much more competitive for Tesla this year. The same dynamics are taking place in Australia and New Zealand, so new price cuts may be expected there. In the US the prices of the model X and model S were cut, as not enough foreign buyers were found to remove the inventory buildup of these models in the US; the X and S are only produced in the US.
The January price cuts in China have seemed to produce the same result as the October price cuts, a small short-term bump in demand followed by a reversion to trend. With more and more Chinese manufacturers releasing strong competitors to both the Model 3 and Y (e.g. the soon to be released BYD Sea Lion), Tesla will struggle in China throughout this year. Especially with the “revamped’ Model 3 not arriving until Q4 and no revamp for the Model Y this year. We may see a mixture of price cuts AND lower demand for Tesla in China. Of course, the Japanese and German automakers selling ICE cars in China will struggle much more than Tesla. Here is the new BYD Seagull that competes directly with the Toyota Corolla, and the price starts at US$8,800 (in China). Toyota sold over a quarter of a million Corolla’s in China last year.
Yet Another Chinese Model 3 Competitor From GAC Aion
And the Shenlan S7 available in April, competing with the Model Y
https://carnewschina.com/2023/03/06/shenlan-s7-electric-suv-unveiled-in-china/
And the BYD Sea Lion probably available also in April, undercutting the Model Y price
https://topelectricsuv.com/news/byd/byd-sea-lion-electric-suv/
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43212919/2023-tesla-model-s-model-x-price-cuts/