Straws In The Wind April
Peace Breaking out all over the Middle East
Russia and China have been quietly working away, with much diplomacy and patience, to bring peace to the Middle East and of course expand their own influence in the region. Both have already shown very strong support for Iranian sovereignty in the face of escalating US aggression; with the Ukraine war drawing Russia and Iran much more closely together. With China becoming the largest importer of oil in the world, together with vast amounts of natural gas imports, its economic heft in the region has greatly increased in the past few years. In addition, Russia has worked well with its Middle Eastern partners in OPEC+; the latest proof being the coordinated cut in oil output. The Middle Eastern nations now have alternatives to the continuing arrogance, bullying and double-dealing of the Western powers. At the same time, the US has greatly aided the Russian and Chinese efforts through their high-handed and arrogant treatment of the nations in the region.
The announcement of a diplomatic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran fundamentally wrecks the US Middle Eastern strategy to create a cordon sanitaire around Iran, and we can expect the other Gulf Cooperation Council nations to follow. With the core relationship of the region on the mend, we are now seeing lesser issues being resolved – such as the Yemen War. Saudi Arabia and other GCC nations have also reconciled with Syria, and with Turkey/Syria relations on the mend there is the possibility of an end to the Syrian war; including the removal of US troops and Western interference.
This creates a huge problem for Israel, as its attempts to peel off Arab countries as its allies is now at an end. The next question is what will happen with the Jordanian and Egyptian governments. As the latter is significantly reliant on Saudi Arabian aid money, it may fall in line with these new initiatives. At the very time when US influence in the Middle East is waning, and the Arab/Persian world coming together, the escalations of Israel (bombing Syria after its earthquake, storming the Al Aqsa Mosque) may become seen as severe errors of judgement. For the US, this may be the beginning of the end of its influence in the region, especially when combined with the victory of the Ethiopian government over the US proxy TPLF.
The Global War Terror (GWOT) behind which US naked aggression and political interference operated is coming to an end. The Joint Cooperation Plan of Agreement (JCPOA) is now irrelevant, while expansions of the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are pushed forward. In addition, there are the first moves away from the Oil-US$ connection, with Middle Eastern fossil fuel deals increasingly being denoted in Yuan. A significant move of Saudi Arabia toward Yuan pricing for its oil exports would be another major setback for the West. With so much of their sovereign wealth fund invested in Western assets, the Saudi princess may have been given a severe wake-up call by the West’s theft of Russia’s billions. The latest announcements of large-scale Saudi investments in China may represent somewhat of an asset diversification away from Western thieving hands. The risk of the theft of US$100 billions of Saudi wealth will act as a retardant on Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical moves in the short to medium term though.
Even more surprising is Georgia’s ruling party’s attempts to reign in the Western NGOs that directly interfere in the nation’s internal political affairs. Its first attempt has failed, but also failed was the Western regime change operations directed at it. If the ruling party successfully attempts reform in the future it may very well remove Western domination of the regime and any threat to Russia in the Caucasus. Iran has also made clear to Azerbaijan that no further escalations against Armenia will not be tolerated, and a Syria/Turkey/Iraq/Iran/Russia peace agreement will also serve a death blow to the US manipulation of the Kurds. Peace may very well be breaking out right across the region.
On the eastern edge of the region the only recent US “win” has been the coup in Pakistan that removed Imran Khan as Prime Minister, but that nation is still heavily dependent upon China. The loss of Afghanistan, and the failed coup in Kazakhstan were much greater setbacks for US influence in the region.
African Leaders Continue to Try to Educate Western Elites, In Vain.
It seems these days that never a week goes by without one or more Western elites being verbally smacked in the face by newly emboldened African leaders stating inconvenient truths. Most recently it has been Kamala Harris’ tour of Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia, which if you read the mainstream media or even use a google search you will think has been a great success. As an aside, google is becoming more and more useless as the mainstream media and paid for links now tend to crowd anything else out; its nearly like google is trying to emulate the Yahoo that it overwhelmed in the early 2000s.
What is obvious to African leaders is that Western leaders are attempting a more “positive” approach to their nations because for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union they increasingly have other options available; options provided by the geopolitical opponents of US global dominance. These opponents have brought a focus on respect, trade and development rather than the subjugation, economic exploitation and the corruption of local leaders and politics that the West has brought. The US more “positive” approach tends to be severely lacking in monetary help (especially when compared to the sums lavished on Ukraine and spent on the Iraq and Afghan occupations) when compared to China, and its representatives still cannot help telling African nations how to govern themselves and who to work with. Jimmy Dore brings some levity and truth to African responses to Kamala Harris’ trip.
This interview so perfectly captures the differences between the US and Chinese attitudes and approaches to African nations:
This was four years ago, telling the US elites what the issues with their relationship with African nations were. Nothing seems to change:
A story that the speaker told was that when a Kenyan delegation tried to meet with Nancy Pelosi, they were told that she only meets with heads of state. When a Liberian delegation went to China, they met with Xi Jinping, then the Vice President of China. The only reason they did not meet with then Chairman Hu Jintao was because he was meeting with John Kerry. Such differences are remembered by a country’s elite. It is the same reason that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is received so warmly in African nations.
There are also still the cases where the West has become very involved in internal power struggles, as with its support for the TPLF against the Ethiopian government. After years of bloodshed, and extensive US propaganda against the government claiming unsubstantiated human rights violations, the Ethiopian government won the civil war. Now the US tries a new “charm” offensive with the US Secretary of State visiting Addis Ababa the capital of Ethiopia. At the same time. it helps block the restructuring and forgiveness of Ethiopia’s multilateral debts (e.g. to the IMF and World Bank). This report captures the mood of much of the Ethiopian population:
Another thing you will tend not to see in the MSM is that Russia wrote off US$20 billion of African debts accumulated during the Soviet era and called for a doubling of Russia-Africa trade in the next four to five years. China has also cancelled and restructured many African debts, with the “Chinese debt trap” being shown to be a US propaganda mirage. Russia and China’s historical roles with respect to Africa, and their current approach, is diametrically opposed to the US high-handed manner that both assumes that they have a right to meddle in the internal politics of African nations and never truly acknowledge their vast historical crimes committed against the continent; crimes that continue in the present. Expect more African disappointments for the West, and more assertive language used in their presence.
The Germans seem even more cluelessly condescending than the US, with a German envoy visiting the ex-German colony of Namibia (it was German South West Africa until 1919, then South West Africa overseen by South Africa until independence as Namibia in 1990) and complaining that there were now more Chinese there than Germans! This is a country where Germany has acknowledged it carried out a genocide against the native peoples. He got his ass handed to him:
https://africa.cgtn.com/2019/10/24/russia-writes-off-more-than-20-billion-in-african-debt/
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3745021
https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/31921/
Global EV Battery Shares: Chinese Dominance Increases
The global market for EV battery makers in 2022 was dominated by CATL of China (37% vs 32.6% for 2021), South Korean LG (13.6% vs 20.3%), Chinese BYD (13.6% vs 8,8%), Panasonic of Japan (7.3% vs 12.2%), SK On (5.4% vs 5.6%) and Samsung SDI (4.7% vs 4.5%) of South Korea. The next four suppliers are Chinese, CALB (3.9% vs 2.7%) and Gotion High-Tech (2.7% vs 2.1%), Sunwoda (1.8% vs minimal) and Farasis Energy (1,4% vs minimal). The combined total market share of the above six Chinese manufacturers was 60.4%, a very significant increase from 47.2% in 2021. This market share was gained at the expense of the South Korean and Japanese manufacturers. There are no EV battery manufacturers from outside China, South Korea and Japan in the top 10. The overall market grew from 301.5 GWh in 2021 to 517.9 GWh in 2022l; a growth of 71.8%. In 2023 the overall market is expected to grow to 749 GWh; a growth of 44.6%.
In the first two months of 2023, versus the 2022 full year, the South Korean LG (13.3% vs 13.6%) was pushed into third place by Chinese BYD (18.2% vs 13.6%). CATL’s share did fall a bit from the 2022 full year, to 33.8% from 37%. With BYD producing all of the batteries for its own EVs, as well as for other manufacturers, BYD’s share should increase further this year as they have forecast a near doubling of their EV manufacturing this year. Chinese market share increased slightly in the first two months, to 60.7%.
In the Chinese EV battery market, Chinese manufacturers completely dominate with over 90% market share in February 2023. The biggest foreign manufacturer, South Korean LG Electronics had only 2.4% market share. CATL had 43.8%, BYD 34.2%, and CALB 7.4%.
https://cnevpost.com/2023/02/08/global-ev-battery-market-share-2022-catl-37-byd-13-6/
https://cnevpost.com/2023/03/30/global-ev-battery-market-share-jan-feb/
https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/03/lithium-carbonate-likely-to-fall-below-rmb-100000-says-chairman-of-farasis/