End of the Beginning: Final Chapter
Chapter 36: January 12th, 2033
Reykjavik, Iceland 10am
“Anna Coombes was thrown out of the helicopter and we have to assume that she died” said a somber Roksana from the large screen mounted on the wall.
“The Anna that I met on Greenland?” asked a shocked Jim.
“Yes, her belt must not have locked properly” was the unwanted reply.
“Oh Jesus, how many more good people have to die?” he exclaimed.
Silence pervaded the room for what seemed an eternity, before Roksana was able to bring herself back to the present. “The sensors picked up a seismic-type event and an increase in methane in the air. It could be that significant amounts of methane hydrates are beneath the ice sheet, as some scientists have proposed. The warm water got at some of them, with the resulting explosion destabilizing the front of the ice shelf. That’s still speculation, but it’s currently the best explanation of why things happened much faster than we had thought they would. If the speculation is correct, we can add another driver for rapid disintegration of the ice sheet. One that is now unstoppable.”
What appeared to be a flow of consciousness poured out of Jim’s mouth, as the others looked on, “A bigger Thames Barrier would save London at the cost of the outlying areas. Harder for New York, they would need three separate barriers given the geography. Shanghai and Tokyo could also probably be saved. The damming the Straits of Gibraltar would save the Mediterranean. Huge costs, but probably worth it given what would be saved. Not really possible for the Netherlands or Denmark though. Can you dam the Baltic? Southern Florida, most of Bangladesh, Calcutta, and the Pearl River and Mekong deltas are probably toast. Fuck, Fuck, Fuuuck!”
Jim’s head was in his hands as he stared intensely but unseeingly at the table in from of him. No one responded, there was no need; they had nothing to add.
Mont Tremblant, Quebec, Canada 2pm
It had been a pleasant day for President Ashbridge, it was rare that he got to spend a few days with his wife and eldest sons. There was also the wonderfully deep snow, something that was becoming relatively rare south of the border. The negotiations with the Canadians on water rights had been a good excuse to travel north. The Canadian Prime Minister had put on a good show for the press, but it was obvious that he understood the reality of his position. As the flea on the back of an elephant, he understood that he could easily be crushed if he was not amenable enough. Better to trade water with the Americans, than have them come and take it. The positive feeling from the family time and good negotiations had been dashed by the telephone call. Once again, the world was falling apart on Ashbridge’s watch.
Kelly and Jim were waiting for him in the main room of the chalet; the dour look on their faces contrasted with the beautiful view through the huge windows behind them.
Ashbridge sat down, “we will have to stop meeting like this!” he said while trying to control the exasperation that was welling up beneath the surface, “what is it now?”
Kelly looked at Jim. “Yesterday, the front of the Thwaites Glacier collapsed helped by what seems to be an explosion of methane hydrates below it. This makes the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in this century quite probable. At the least, the rate of sea level rise will accelerate significantly; requiring the protection of, or the evacuation from, many of the major coastal areas within a few decades.” he stated.
“What?” blurted out the President, incredulously.
Jim continued “we didn’t think that things could happen this fast, but it seems that there are significant amounts of methane hydrates beneath the ice sheets. As the ocean waters get at them, they warm up and explosively transform from ice into gas; the volume increases by over 100 times. It’s like setting off explosives under the ice sheets. Thankfully the methane hydrates are far below the ocean surface, and therefore not much of the methane makes it into the atmosphere – not yet, anyway. We have to assume that sea level rise may be in the feet per decade rate by 2050 at the latest.
“So, we have the ‘ice cliffs are too high to support themselves’ collapse process and now we have methane bombs going off under the ice sheets”, exclaimed the President as he rubbed his forehead. “We are already committed to spending colossal amounts of money on geo-engineering and aid to other countries, and now you are telling me that we will have to build huge sea walls to protect our coastal cities. Or tell people that there is no hope and their property will be under water within decades!”
A forlorn silence befell the three of them, then a quiet “yes” from Jim.
“We have done some contingency planning around this possibility Mr. President. The scale of the required sea defences will be quite massive if we wish to save the major metropolises of Boston, New York, and Washington. Places such as southern Florida and New Orleans are simply not saveable or not worth the cost of saving” stated Kelly as dispassionately as possible. “There will also be the issue of moving/protecting a number of coastal nuclear facilities. The last thing we will need is our own version of the British Hinkley Point C fiasco. The biggest issue will be how to manage the populations in the areas that will have to be given up to the seas; tens of millions of possible internal refugees with their main asset, their house, worthless. The possibility of an even greater backlash against anyone associated with the fossil fuel industries will be a significant risk.”
“Enough!” the President groaned. “The implications of this are huge, and we need more than just speculation. I will instruct all departments to urgently work with the two of you to work out a plan of action. Link up with Alexander, Jose and Richard to get an integrated plan together. We will need this within a few weeks at the latest, any longer than that and things could start to get out of control.”
With that he waved them away; he needed time to think.
Mont Tremblant, Quebec, Canada 7pm (7am in Beijing)
“Xiao, how are you? I assume that your staff have briefed you on the implications of what is happening in the Antarctic?” Ashbridge asked as he looked up at the screen.
“Unfortunately, yes Mark” stated a weary Chinese President. “Looks like we will have to accelerate our plans to move our industries from the Pearl River Delta, and build large scale coastal defences around Shanghai etc. Quite a bit of our agricultural lands will also be affected. Just south of us, the Vietnamese will be much worse off with the flooding of the Mekong Delta. Just when we had thought that we had got things under control the Earth shows that is has a few more cards up its sleeve.”
Ashbridge nodded in resigned agreement. “In World War 2, just after the British had defeated the Germans in North Africa their leader Churchill tried to bring the euphoric public back to reality. He said that they were not at the beginning of the end, but rather at the end of the beginning. I feel that that may very well be where we sit, with decades and decades of struggle ahead of us.”
“Perhaps we will have to make great use of Mr. Churchill’s speeches, I seem to remember a ‘blood, sweat and tears’ one that sounds quite appropriate. We can only offer continued struggle, rather than increasing wealth and prosperity, for our populations. It will be hard to keep our nations together and acting as one. Did you study Greek?” Xiao replied.
“Not much call for that in the military, although we did study the Greek wars, why?” was the reply from Ashbridge.
“The Greek god of the lower atmosphere was named Khaos, seems quite an apt name given that she may have quite a few surprises in store for us. We should have let her sleep for a good while longer rather than forcing her awake. So much for the Anthropocene, it seems that we may have a fight on our hands to stop the Earth resting back control from us and running away with it.”
The two men sat silently looking at each other from different points on the globe, quietly contemplating the enormity of task that had befallen them. It was just the end of the beginning, and the best that they could hope for was that they could help their fellow citizens make it through the coming Khaos.