Chapter 9: July 15th
Hong Kong, China
“Would you like something to drink gentlemen?”, asked the tall waitress in a voice that caressed the ears the way that a good brandy massages the throat.
Guiseppe leaned back languidly in his chair and surveyed her before gazing into her eyes, “What’s your name”, he asked.
“It’s Eumeh” she smiled back appreciatively.
“So fitting”, he replied, calmly pausing to take her in. Her hand unconsciously reached up and brushed her hair.
Oh fuck, can I just shoot him now, Thomas thought to himself, should be something really painful that takes a long time to die from, a gut shot would be good – with a sawn-off shotgun.
Guiseppe ordered some wine for the two of them, and then turned to Thomas, “so, if I were to summarize our discussion on the flight, we either take very significant actions immediately or we risk the planet eradicating us. The problem is that what would be required would most probably crash the financial markets and the economy. It would also make a lot of very rich and powerful people significantly less rich and powerful. Oh, and destabilize a few strategically important countries. After we have achieved all that maybe we can chill out with a beer and barbie” proud of his ability to mimic “Aussie” while maintaining his sarcasm.
“Whatever you do don’t attempt that in Australia Guiseppe, I am sure a large crowd would enjoy taking their time to beat you to death” replied Thomas. “After spending forty years doing next to nothing, much tougher actions are required. The climate is close to a tipping point, it’s like that movie about a climber that got his arm trapped in the wilderness. For the first day or so he could wait for someone to find him, but as he became more and more dehydrated it became obvious that he had to cut the bottom part of his arm off. So, he did. That’s where we are right now. We either cut off the arm, or we may soon not even have the ability to cut it off.”
“Your drinks gentlemen” said Eumeh as she lay down the exquisite glasses “anything else?”
Guiseppe sighed and turned to Eumeh, “perhaps a loaded gun, my friend here has taken all the joy out of the day. He’s a scientist, he can’t help it, it’s just his nature.” Thomas shrugged his shoulders in mock acceptance while Eumeh managed a mock frown while she subtly studied his strong physique.
“I think we are good with the wine” Thomas smiled.
After Eumeh had left Guiseppe noted, “when she looks at me she sees a charming man that she would like to enjoy an adventure with, when she looks at you she sees the man that she would want to go to the beach with accompanied by your two adorable children. You are the handsome sporty scientist who found it easy to get girls at school, I am the not so sporty poor guy that had to work hard to learn how to get people to accept and respect him.”
Thomas sat back in his chair, suddenly he hated Guiseppe just a little less. “Well Guiseppe, how is your wife, and your daughter, getting used to being in Brussels?” he asked.
Chapter 10: July 18th
North Island, New Zealand
The helicopter flew through a lush valley, enclosed by steep mountains and the ocean lapping up against an inviting bay, before heading out to sea. Then, as it cleared a rugged archipelago and turned back toward land, their destination came into view. Partially illuminated by a low sun, the lights of the individual lodges shone out across the water towards them.
“So, this is what it is like to be a Russian billionaire”, Jim said in the sleepy voice of the jet lagged, “so much for the communist threat.” The individual lodges looked like mini palaces along the shoreline, with the seemingly gold-plated rooms illuminated against the encroaching darkness.
“I see that your humour is certainly not dimmed by tiredness” Kelly retorted, in a playfully sarcastic way while she forced her eyelids to stay open. Both of them had managed only restless sleep on the flight over, with the many hours over the Pacific being filled by increasingly sleepy and relaxed conversation.
“Best sleepover I ever had; are we buddies now?” Jim had joked. He had become much more pleasant to be with as the flight wore on, and both of them relaxed their guards. Private jets certainly did have their advantages.
The helicopter gently touched down and the door slid open.
“Welcome to Artemis Bay” the butler welcomed them in a voice redolent of an English royal palace. “I am sure you are very tired after your long journey, so we will take you straight to the lodge where you can rest before the morning’s meetings. Your luggage will be taken care of.” They were whisked off on a golf cart toward the beach and up to their front doors, which were opened invitingly.
“This is your suite on the right madam, and yours on the left sir”. As Kelly entered, not even her tiredness could dim the splendor that greeted her. A burst of excitement and curiosity reawakened her temporarily. The only noises were that of the fire and the sea lapping up against the sand. As she looked through the panoramic windows, the sky was turning a brilliant mixture of reds and oranges as the sun set. After a few minutes of being shown around and then relaxing in a sumptuous large chair, fatigue regained control and she started to drift. She only just made it to the bed before the world of unconsciousness took over. In the suite next door, Jim was already splayed asleep on his bed.
Chapter 11: July 19th
North Island, New Zealand
The sound of Caribbean steel drums filled the room. After a few seconds the bedclothes stirred and a muscular arm reached out to turn off the alarm. After a deep sigh, Dmitry exclaimed, “time to be single again” as he smiled and kissed Olga’s still sleeping head. He dressed quickly and quietly, before making his way to his own suite where he could sit and enjoy a relaxing coffee while watching the sunrise. The soothing sound of the gas heaters around him added to his sense of inner calm. A calm interrupted by the “health-freak” Italian who sped by on his morning run, but Dmitry still managed a polite and approving wave.
He needs a bit more meat on his bones to look like a real man.
“Do you mind if I join you” came Olga’s voice from around the corner of the terrace.
“Of course, please have a seat” he replied. A few minutes later their breakfasts arrived, and they chatted as they ate.
“This food is just too damn good. I may have to request a posting here to study the effects of climate change in the southern-ocean” Olga stated as she speared another piece of smoked salmon. “Not like the thin strips I get at home” she observed as she held it in front of her “more like a thick piece of steak”.
Dmitry smiled “we are all such good capitalists these days, aren’t we?”
Guiseppe made it back to his suite, refreshed by the run in the crisp morning air. The lush greenness of the surroundings, the rolling terrain, and ever-present sound of the sea made for a wonderful environment for a morning run. He quickly showered and changed before sitting on the patio with his coffee, mobile phone, tablet and computer – scanning the happenings of the world while reading through some notes for the morning’s meetings. Noticing that he was already a bit richer today as the U.S. markets neared their close, he connected with his family in Brussels. “Hello my darling, I wish you were here with me. This place is so lovely, but with you here it would be truly beautiful.” He smiled as his wife chatted about her day and then handed the phone to their daughter. “Princess, I have a new story for you today. It’s all about a little girl called Wendy and her adventures with a young boy who can fly.” He picked up his tablet and began to read, “All children, except one, grow up. They soon know that they will grow up and the way Wendy knew was this. One day when she was two years-old she was playing in the garden, and she plucked another flower ….”
After the overbearing heat of India, Mahavir found the chilly air of the morning refreshing. “Who would have thought that the two of us would be deciding the future of mankind in a billionaire’s paradise in New Zealand? It’s a long way from that university dormitory. We said that life should be one long adventure and it is definitely turning out that way.”
Venkata smiled ruefully. “What is it that the Chinese say ‘may you be blessed with interesting times’, I don’t think that we have had any shortage of those.” They both looked out at the endless ocean that stretched in front of them. “We need to be very firm about the requirement for help from the other nations to increase our people’s living standards while cutting emissions. Without that we will be condemning our nation to relative poverty, always being the poorer cousins while we fix a problem mainly created by the others making themselves wealthy. We can’t tell our own citizens to cut fossil fuel usage if they can see others in the rich countries still driving their SUV’s to the mall.”
Mahavir nodded in agreement, “Or billionaires still sailing their yachts around with impunity” he added “that’s how revolutions get started - the rich have to be seen to be doing their part. Conspicuous consumption has to be a thing of the past. The other thing that I am worried about is the drive for geo-engineering, which could disrupt the monsoon rains. We will need an absolute commitment that any food shortfalls will be made good by the other nations before we agree to anything that could affect the monsoon. Starving people also make for revolutions.”
Kelly awoke suddenly and surveyed the room through half-open eyes. What had jumped her out of her deep sleep? There was the sound of a hand crisply tapping on the front door. She clambered onto her feet, dressed in the same clothes now for nearly two days, and wandered over to the door. She warily opened it,
“Good morning!” Jim greeted her with the happy and annoyingly energetic look of a puppy realizing that it is time for its walk, “it’s a beautiful day out here, and we have our meeting with the Europeans in an hour. Come on, grab a shower get dressed and enjoy some breakfast on my balcony.”
Trying with little success to hide her irritation, “they better have really good bloody coffee” she replied.
“They have every possible variation of coffee you can image, any preferences?” Jim asked.
“Hot and very strong” she blurted out as she waved him away and closed the door behind her.
Fuck she thought to herself as she surveyed her still unpacked luggage. Jim strode back to his balcony, ordered breakfast for them both, flopped down in the chair and started reading some of the briefing notes on his tablet. As he breathed in the crisp, clean air, his body relaxed into the soft chair.
Later that morning, the informal meetings where the negotiations would really be worked out started. Standing outside Kelly’s chalet, Venkata tapped on the door, and heard footsteps moving toward it before it swung open.
“Hi, great to see you again Venkata, it must have been at least a year” Jim said as he welcomed them in.
“Great to see you Jim, this is Mahavir, the Home Affairs minister”.
Jim met him with a warm handshake, “Great to meet you”, and they walked into the living room, “Our folks are just completing the security sweep, and will be finished in a few minutes. Kelly will be with us shortly, just finishing a call. Please have a seat” as he motioned to four chairs arranged around a low table. After they sat down Jim poured the milky tea for them, “If I remember right your favourite is Darjeeling?”
Venkata smiled, “yes”, he responded and then turned to Mahavir, smiling “he’s quite culturally aware you know … for an American.”
Mahavir shrugged, “an American pouring me chai in a Russian oligarch’s compound in New Zealand, the world is full of surprises!”
Jim looked up suddenly, “Sir, we have finished the sweep and you should be fully secure for your discussions” stated the security specialist.
“Thankyou” was Jim’s response as the security detail left.
Kelly emerged from the bedroom, “my apologies gentlemen, a pleasure to meet you” and walked across to shake hands.
“This is Venkata the scientific advisor, and Mahavir the Home Affairs minister”, informed Jim. After she had exchanged hand-shakes and sat down Jim poured her some tea, “It’s like a chai latte” he let her know.
She took a sip, “not bad at all, spicier and less sweet than my usual chai” she exclaimed.
“It’s ok, there will be no diplomatic consequences of you not liking our national drink” Mahavir said sternly.
“That’s good to know, but it is actually quite nice” she replied. After some further small talk, they got down to business.
“The scale of the carbon emissions that are being proposed by the Russians may be appropriate for a rich country such as yours, but in India we are still raising 100’s of millions of people out of basic poverty. Without extensive help from other countries there is no way that we could be part of any agreement. On top of that the risk of any geo-engineering that could impact the monsoon causing extensive crop failures is a very critical one for us” stated Mahavir.
Kelly replied, “Our country very much understands the problems that you face complying with the Russian proposals and is very conscious of the support that you will need both for the development of your energy infrastructure and for possible food aid. We are somewhat concerned though about your recent closer alignments with the Chinese over economic and military matters.” The previous congeniality dimmed, and the room suddenly felt a little colder.
“India is a regional power in our own right and requires the respect that is our due from any nation. Perhaps if you could help us more with the instability in Pakistan, we would not need to embrace our Chinese cousins so warmly.”
Kelly relaxed in her chair, “it seems that we have some mutual concerns that will require higher-level discussion. The situation with Pakistan is at least partly of your own making, as they are extremely concerned about the dam building in the Indus basin that provides India with the possibility of greatly reducing Pakistan’s water supply at a moments’ notice. Given their internal issues, that could become a flashpoint between your two countries. Your strong-arming of Bangladesh over the redirection of the Brahmaputra waters did not exactly help engender a level of trust in your future actions.” Jim and Venkata looked at each other like two spectators watching a boxing match. The discussions continued in a strained but polite manner, until it was time for Mahavir and Venkata to leave.
On the rooftop veranda of the main lodge, Zhaohui imbibed the steaming Sbiten, as she relaxed with Dmitry and the Russians. The sweet warmth of the Russian drink provided a relief to the cool New Zealand air, as did the warm blanket that she had wrapped around her. She was still getting acclimatized to the southern winter, but the stunning scenery helped make up for the small discomfort.
“There go the Indians after their meeting with the Americans” observed Dmitry smugly. “Some things never change, just another failed American attempt to divide and conquer.”
Venkata and Mahavir stopped off in the latter’s suite to ready themselves for the meeting with the Russians and Chinese. “Good job Venkata, play nice and let me do the hard talking” said Mahavir approvingly.
“Quite entertaining actually” shot back Venkata, “anything I should know for the next meeting?”
Mahavir thought for a few seconds, “we need them to think that we are doing well with the Americans so that we can get a better deal from them. It’s important though that we don’t endanger the dialogue, as we need to balance our interests between the Chinese and the Americans. We need an agreement with China over the sharing of the major rivers that begin in Chinese territory, their help in containing the mess in Pakistan, as well as for required economic and food aid. The Americans are weak but have still not learnt the humility required of their new position. Just like the last days of the British Empire, it takes a while for the bully to realize that some of the other children have become much bigger and stronger. The Chinese are the new aspiring bully and have taken actions that impinge on our sphere of influence. We need to show both that we deserve respect.”
“Well, at least this chai latte stuff is good”, exclaimed Kelly as she mulled over the meeting with the Indians, “seems like we have our work cut out to get them on our side.”
Jim nodded in agreement and commented “The President has been working hard to mend fences, but it’s an uphill battle after the few decades of pushing everyone around. We surely pissed away the possibilities that opened up after the U.S.S.R. imploded and then 9/11. Too busy being the bully on the block.”
Kelly looked at Jim amusedly, “maybe you keep to the science and I will keep to the geopolitics. The Indians are fundamentally threatened by China’s regional aspirations, together with China’s unequivocal support of Pakistan; they need us at least as much as we need them.”
Jim sat up straight, “ok wonder woman, so what’s the position with the Europeans?” he retorted.
“Care for some Sbiten, perfect for a chilly day like this” Dmitry asked as Venkata and Mahavir sat down on the veranda.
“Absolutely, it’s been a long time since I had some, tried it at a meeting in St. Petersburg a few years ago and loved it.” Dmitry poured and the six of them relaxed, surrounded by the lush landscape and white tipped ocean, “a good meeting with the Americans?”
Mahavir smiled, “very productive, seems that our American cousins are very open to the exchanges required for a successful relationship.”
Zhaohui sat up, “so nice to hear that they are learning to play better with others, have a warm blanket.”
Mahavir reached over and grabbed a couple of blankets, handing one to Venkata, “from the high 40’s to this is quite a shock to the system.”
Dmitry stood up, “I will get some heaters for us”, and within minutes the soothing warmth of the gas flames surrounded them. “Russian natural gas” Dmitry proudly noted. After offering their condolences to Olga over her daughter’s untimely end and engaging in the opening small talk endemic of such meetings, Mahavir moved on to the more serious discussions.
“The proposals that you have made with respect to helping India develop its alternative energy systems, and in food supplies are very interesting to us. What is lacking is a commitment over the sharing of the great rivers and commitments to help contain the Pakistani issues.”
Chang smiled “The resolution of the water issue and your relationship with Pakistan are deeply intertwined. We are as concerned as you are about the Pakistani problem and want to have both yourselves and Pakistan as stable friends, and joint managers of the great rivers. The internal instability within Pakistan is very worrying to us, and we will do whatever is possible to make sure that it does not destabilize the region. Let’s remember that if we push the climate much further the great rivers may be but fond memories in future years. What is important to us, as I assume is important to you, is that the western imperialists don’t gain a strategic advantage in the region.”
Mahavir leaned forward in his chair, looking firstly at Dmitry and then Chang, “We are becoming extremely concerned about the issues within Pakistan and the possibility of the wrong elements gaining control of their nuclear arsenal, pre-emptive actions may be risky but may also be the only alternative available to us if things deteriorate further. We of course do not wish for such an outcome but will not shirk from making hard choices. Your cooperation on this will be central to how the relationship between our countries develops.”
Chang sat up straight and rubbed his chin, “we will not allow for such an eventuality to happen and will take whatever steps are required to stop such an eventuality. You can be assured of this. The stability of the region is one of our central policy aims, unlike your American ‘friends’ who seem to enjoy making a mess on a regular basis. On this matter I think it is best if our two leaders discuss directly.”
Mahavir agreed, “If my leader can be assured of that, I think that we develop our relationship further.” With that the conversation moved back to small talk, and they took time to take in the beautiful surroundings and the warm, sweet Sbiten.
“Good morning”, Kelly smiled as she opened the door to welcome in Thomas and Guiseppe.
“You must be the enchanting Kelly that we have all heard about” Guieppe replied, as he glided through the door followed by his Australian colleague.
“And you must be the enchanting James”, Thomas joked as he greeted his old pal, “slightly different to our usual digs, eh?” Jim laughed. They sat down around the table as the two scientists attempted to one-up each other with stories of horrifically bad expedition experiences.
“Well gentlemen, perhaps we should start?” Kelly interrupted in a slightly superior sounding voice. “My understanding is that the European Union and the United States are generally in agreement on our responses to the Russian proposals, but that we do need to discuss tactics.”
Guiseppe leaned back languidly in his chair, “would you like to comment Thomas?” he asked.
“Thankyou, Guiseppe” was the reply “We do have significant concerns about the differing historical contributions to greenhouse gas emission reductions between the EU and US, especially taking into account the increases in US methane emissions. The EU has made very significant strides in reducing emissions, but such reductions get more and more difficult the lower the amount of emissions is. Given that the US still has much greater options for emission cuts than the EU, more than double the emissions per capita, and can take great advantage of our experiences, we would expect the US to make deeper percentage cuts than ourselves going forward.” This was not the reply that Kelly had expected, and a pregnant pause filled the room.
“Our position also reflects the political realities of the situation,” stated Guiseppe, “the US is seen as having not contributed fairly and there is no patience left for it to start contributing its fair share. With Turkey in the Russian camp and the near disaster of the Ukrainian folly, there is also not much appetite for playing games with our Russian neighbours. We need some assurances that you will stay away from any regional actions that may further destabilize Europe, the last thing we need is more failed states on our borders with millions of refugees flowing towards us. You have an ocean to protect you against such things, we do not.”
Kelly smiled sarcastically, “No, we just have 150 million Mexicans and the rest of Central America to worry about.” She paused, “President Ashbridge has worked tirelessly to establish good relations with the Russians and undo the mistakes of previous administrations. We are not in the ‘exporting democracy’ business anymore. He also very much understands that the US needs to take a leadership role with respect to emissions reductions, but at the same time also has to take into account the economic impacts. The US is a massive country, with extremes in temperature, so it will always have a greater need for energy in transportation and heat than countries in the EU. We also lack much of the national transportation infrastructure that you already have in place. We may be open to a small difference in percentage cuts, to allow for political expediency in Europe. Too big a difference would most probably doom any proposal to defeat within the US though.”
Guiseppe and Thomas nodded in agreement. “We don’t wish to paralyze your economy, but you must be seen to be making up for your previous foot dragging” Guiseppe replied. The conversation moved onto more mundane topics before a knock came at the door.
“Ah, that must be the coffee” said Kelly “They assured me that they can make it just like they do in Naples”, as she smiled at the expectant Guiseppe.
“I will have to be the judge of that” was his reply.
At 1pm sharp, the first of the formal meetings in the main lodge began. “I would like to welcome everyone to my small New Zealand dacha,” Dmitry smiled, “our agenda is very tightly packed, and as we have had a chance to get reacquainted, I will dispense with the usual niceties and get down to business.” Everyone nodded their agreement as they sat around the table in the underground committee room that could easily double as an international command center. The above ground main lodge building stood on top of a large, multi-level, underground complex.
“Today we will cover the current science and climatic reality. Tomorrow we will cover the geo-engineering options. Following that will be negotiations on the required actions and the timeframes for those actions. Although I am sure that all of us non-scientists have had some briefing on climate science, we would still appreciate some level of patience from our scientific colleagues. As we ourselves will strive to maintain when it comes to political and economic discussions. We cannot divorce the science from the social realities, and thus we must all work to build a truly integrated understanding. Given the rapid changes in the understanding of factors driving the melting of the ice sheets, and the scale of its impacts, it was deemed necessary to have the relevant briefing delivered by the leading specialist, Roksana Yevtushenko. She will be briefing us this evening. As agreed, Thomas will kick off this afternoon’s overview.
“Thankyou Dmitry, I trust that everyone has had a chance to review my slides so instead of talking to them I will ask for questions to each one in turn if that is acceptable.” Thomas looked around the room and noted the agreement before flipping the screen to slide one.
“If I understand this correctly what you are saying is that the natural processes for storing carbon, such as in the oceans and the forests, are breaking down at what may be an accelerating rate. Not long ago though, weren’t scientists talking about the forests taking up more carbon?” questioned Mahavir.
“When carbon dioxide in the atmosphere first increases, it is true that plants can grow faster given a higher level of carbon. This was what drove all those ‘more carbon is good for plants’ positive articles on climate change. As temperatures continue to rise though, the temperature impact overwhelms the impact of the increased carbon, and the plants start to grow more slowly. Drought and forest fires then add stresses that reduce the ability to take up carbon. We can see this in the Northern Boreal Forests and in the Amazon, with increasing periods of drought and forest fires turning them into new sources of carbon emissions. The same goes for the oceans, where acidification is impeding the ability of organisms to grow carbon-rich shells that sink to the bottom when the organisms die.” Thomas paused to take a breath and let the others take in his message. “What is worse is that complex systems such as forests can only sustain a certain amount of losses before their integrity is lost and they start to collapse at a much more rapid rate. We are approaching this point in significant parts of both the Boreal and Amazon forests. The result would be the release of vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Much worse than the slowly accelerating increase in natural emissions that we have seen so far.” He then took a sip of water before continuing.
“Then we have the massive amounts of carbon locked up in the thawing permafrost, that is being released as both carbon dioxide and methane. With the latter having about a hundred times greater impact in the short term on the climate than carbon dioxide, human carbon emission reductions have been nullified” said Olga taking advantage of the opening, “and those methane emissions are also on an accelerating path. We may have the ability to stop just before these natural processes start to run beyond our control, but the window for such actions is now very small.”
Kelly leaned forward, “Its feels like we are standing near the edge of a cliff, and if we stop walking we will be ok. If we don’t, at some point we will be in free-fall, and unable to do anything about it. The only question is how much we have to do to stop the forward motion.”
Thomas nodded his head, “Exactly, and that is the topic of the next few slides as we analyze each natural carbon source and sink in greater detail.” The discussions continued through the rest of the afternoon. Then time for a short dinner, followed by the briefing on ice sheets and sea level rise.
Roksana addressed the room, “Good evening everyone, it seems that I have the unenviable position of following dinner with my presentation on ice sheet dynamics. I understand that we do have copious amounts of coffee available. Ice-sheet dynamics is my specialty, an area that I have been focused on for the past two decades. I was advised that it’s better to talk at a general level, than get into the scientific details.” She looked at Dmitry and received a nodding confirmation. “I will provide a short overview of the main dynamics then, after which we can have an open discussion. What we are seeing is that Hansen’s hypothesis of an exponential increase in ice sheet melting is being proven by actual observations; doubling approximately every 7 years. The greatest impact is being seen in Antarctica, where many of the ice sheets are grounded at depths of 1-2 km below sea level. This exposes them to extensive melting by warm ocean waters, especially at depth. The increased levels of light non-salty melt water sits on top of the ocean surface, forcing the warmer but salty and heavier waters down toward the submerged parts of the ice sheet. As more melting takes place, this effect intensifies, acting as a self-reinforcing positive feedback. As the ice sheet retreats, it exposes incredibly high above-water cliffs that cannot be supported by the structural strength of the ice. As these collapse, higher and higher cliffs are exposed, and an ongoing collapse of the ice sheet may be triggered. Once the collapse starts, its completion may be inevitable no matter what actions we take. That is why we must stop any further such collapses from starting.”
“Any further collapses?” queried Mahavir.
The reply was not comforting, “Unfortunately, for some of the ice sheets the collapse is all but inevitable, that is why the estimates for sea level rise have kept rising. This is the case in much of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet. What we have to do is stop the collapse of the many-times larger East Antarctica Ice Sheet from becoming inevitable, as that would drive a truly catastrophic sea level rise of tens of metres.
“That’s is a lot to take in”, said Guiseppe, “so, if I understand correctly once parts of the ice sheet are destabilized their collapse will continue to occur even if we radically reduce emissions and cut global temperatures.”
Roksana nodded as Guiseppe slumped in his chair and exchanged a stunned look with Thomas. “That’s right”, she answered, “once the melting becomes significant, global temperatures have to be significantly reduced to have a chance of slowing it down. In some cases, given the internal structure of parts of the ice sheets the collapse process can become unstoppable. We have to accept that sea level will continue to increase no matter what we do, we can only reduce the rate of acceleration.”
Guiseppe sat up straight, “So what sea level rise are we looking at?” Roksana remained silent and contemplative for a few moments, choosing her words carefully.
“It’s quite possible that a metre of sea level rise is baked in over the next 3 decades, but we could have a chance of stopping things from accelerating further after that. Radical emissions cuts and extensive geo-engineering would be required.”
Jim responded, “That’s three feet to us Americans, goodbye southern Florida, a big chunk of the Eastern Seaboard, the San Francisco Bay Area, and New Orleans. Let alone what the storms will be like with the warmer waters being three feet higher!”
Mahavir could not hold in his alarm, “And Bangladesh, Karachi, and the Mekong Delta” he added, “a never-ending nightmare on both sides of our country”. Roksana paused to allow everyone to calm down, while exchanging concerned glances with Olga and Zhaohui.
After a few more moments she continued, “The picture of the North Atlantic is a bit more complicated. The increased melting from Greenland has created a large pool of cold water, the ‘cold blob’ that has a regionally cooling effect. That cold water is tending to block the northward flow of the Gulf Stream, which is backing up along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. That adds to the local level of sea level rise. With the rapidly warming waters of the Arctic to the north and the warm Gulf Stream to the south, there is a large temperature difference between the cold blob and surrounding waters. This is creating larger and larger storms, the “Storms of Our Grandchildren” that Hansen referred to – although they seem to be happening a bit earlier than he envisaged. As well as battering Ireland and the UK, these storms help bring more moisture over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean, increasing the rate of ice melt. So generally, U.S. Eastern Seaboard sea level rise is significantly worse than the global average, we have increasingly massive storms in the North Atlantic, and more heat and water vapour are getting into Arctic Circle. Any questions so far, hopefully this is not too much for the non-scientists here?”
Karachi, Pakistan
“We are the greatest Muslim country on this Earth and will not allow ourselves to be humiliated by the Christian and Hindu infidels that are destroying our environment and holding our water hostage. My own family was driven out of its homeland by the Hindu murderers. It is time we teach them a lesson, reclaim our lands and show true leadership to our Muslim cousins. Our government is too busy on its knees making the foreigners and profiteers happy, while filling their own pockets, to serve Allah. Their time has passed, now is our time, now is our glory, now is our victory!” Abdul Bhat’s words rang out across the square, and a deafening roar from the huge crowd greeted them. It was a roar made of anger, desperation, hatred, and a yearning for a higher meaning among the chaos of the past years.
The seemingly continuous droughts and floods had driven tens of millions from the land. The heavily armed wall along the Indian border blocked their path westwards, mountains and wilderness blocked any path eastwards, so in their millions they travelled southwards towards the sea – and Karachi. Ironically, Karachi itself was now in danger from the rising seas. A hurricane or tsunami would create a repeat of the Bangladesh disaster. India was threatened by hundreds of millions of Muslims in both the east and the west looking for a way out, with the population to the west possessing a sizeable nuclear arsenal. With its own sizeable Muslim minority, the situation could rapidly escalate from within as well as from without. With its population growing by nearly a half to over 250 million in the past two decades, Pakistan was a very young country. Two decades earlier it had just been able to feed its population. Now with 50% more, and the ravages of climate change, the country was in a never-ending crisis, and it seemed to be descending into anarchy.
Later relaxing in his suite after the speech, Abdul gently sipped his tea. The nationalist rabble-rouser had been replaced by a highly intelligent, reflective, and cultured man.
“Excellent performance Abdul”, a man in military regalia sat next to him stated, “I nearly believed it myself; you missed your calling as an actor!”
Abdul smiled weakly back at the sarcasm, but then his face hardened, “This is not a game, we all have to play our parts to achieve our objective. Pakistan is collapsing around us, and that collapse can take us with it. We must take the focus of the populations anger away from ourselves and force the hand of our allies and our opponents.” The rich and powerful of Pakistan who filled the room, those that had taken so much from the country and given back so little, nodded in agreement. “Tomorrow our army of civilians will march upon the Indian barricades, it is a no-win situation for our enemy. Either they let the hordes of dispossessed Muslims into their country, or there will be a massacre of the innocents that will inflame both Indian and Pakistani Muslims as well as people around the world.”
North Island, New Zealand
The day had been a long one, especially for the non-scientists, as they truly understood for the first time the gravity of the situation that faced their countries, and humanity in general. Kelly and Jim sat silently while drinking some Scotch in her suite. “You can work on these things for years and not fully understand the enormity of the challenge. I feel like today is the first time it really hit me,” Jim said quietly, “we have no good choices. We either do nothing and its really awful, or we do a lot and it will still be awful. The time for change was decades ago, now the only option available seems to be managing the rate of decline.”
Kelly took a sip of her whiskey, the warm feeling that rolled down her throat felt good. “That’s without the problems of managing the internal migrations from Florida and the Southwest, together with god knows how many millions of Mexicans trying to escape a country that is rapidly turning into a desert. Then we have all the geo-political problems.”
Jim laughed, “We need to do something fun quickly, otherwise we may not make it through the conference!” Kelly found herself gazing straight into Jim’s eyes, and he felt an energy rising in his body that he had not felt for a long time.
Dmitry found Olga sitting quietly on the sofa gazing at the corner of the coffee table. Her gaze was in the room, but her mind was miles away, searching for answers. Searching, not as the scientist that she was, but as the mother she was no longer. Dmitry sat gently beside her and wrapped her in his arms. Only then was Olga back in the room. He could see the depth of her sorrow when she looked at him. The woman who was sitting next to him was not the same strong and confident person of a few hours ago, but a fragile mother who had lost and buried her child. She stared into his eyes and whispered. “I still can’t believe she’s gone.” Tears rushed into her eyes and ran down her face before she could say anything else.
“I know” Dmitry said and held her tight in his arms to let her release the pain she was in and that she had hidden behind her professional face day after day. “I wish I could do something, anything to lessen your pain”, he said after a few minutes.
Olga took a deep breath and removed herself from Dmitry’s arms. She gave him a light smile, “A good size glass of vodka would be very helpful right now.” And just like that, she was back to her professional scientist mode. She had her precious moments of grieving for her dear Natalya. Now she had to push and hide her heavy heart under the urgency of the problem in hand, until, maybe someday she would find the luxury of mourning for her daughter again.
Dmitry walked over to the freezer and pulled out a large bottle of vodka, “Only the best here in our south sea dacha my love”, grabbed a couple of small glasses and filled them with the viscous liquid. They both downed the glasses contents, luxuriating in the feeling of thick, cold, liquid rolling down their throats.
“Again!” she demanded.
Zhaohui felt the warm, soft body against hers. The tension of the day seemed to disappear into the bed sheets. She looked into those deep, blue eyes.
“So, you think I did ok today”, Roksana asked.
Guiseppe relaxed in his chair, happily reading to his daughter, “’He was a lovely boy, clad in skeleton leaves and the juices that ooze out of trees but the most entrancing thing about him was that he had all his first teeth. When he saw she was a grown-up, he gnashed the little pearls at her. You enjoy the afternoon now princess and we can start chapter 2 at bed time.”. He lay the tablet on the table and sat quietly in the chair, mulling the day’s events.
Once the governments announce the policy changes any last glimmer of denial in the markets will be snuffed out. There will be a once in a lifetime reset of asset prices. Waterfront properties becoming next to worthless, fossil fuel energy stocks crashing to even deeper lows and quite probably being nationalized for pennies on the dollar, insurance company property portfolios collapsing in value, safe haven properties going up in price, renewable energy companies jumping in value; so much opportunity for profit.
He smiled to himself as he thought of the situation that he was in
I get to do the right thing and make some sizeable profits; just don’t do anything that’s too obvious.
With that he instructed his computer to connect him with his business associate in Milan.
Chang and Mahavir sat in the latter’s suite, sipping the scotch whiskey that they had both developed a taste for.
“You have my assurance that our forces are in place to take control of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal if necessary Mahavir. We are coordinating directly with the U.S. in a joint operation, no one wants the warheads falling into the hands of the desperate.”
Mahavir was not fully content with this, “Our sources are telling us that the march on the wall may be consciously turned into an armed assault. If this happens the border guards will have no option but to open fire and provide the cause celebre that the Pakistani radicals are looking for to take over. We could be just hours away from those warheads falling into the wrong hands!”
Chang nodded his understanding, “The US and Chinese assets are already in place, any hint of a change in control and they will be authorized to go in immediately.”
Mahavir was startled, “You are saying that the Chinese and the U.S. leadership are ready to act?”
The reply was simple and to the point, “Hufang and Anderson both understand the need for a rapid response and accept the risks that could entail.”
After Mahavir had left, Chang pondered the irony of the situation. China working with its global rival the United States to take over control of an ally’s nuclear arsenal to make sure that it would not be used against India, China’s regional rival!
This is the new world, we will constantly have to reconsider who is friend and who is foe as this mess plays itself out, everything will be shades of grey with no black and white truths.
This was a long way from his childhood in the China of the 1960’s and 1970’s, when the old certainty of Maoism had died, and Deng Xiaoping had brought forth the new. Now China was a world power once again, as much state-capitalist as communist, and he was the second most powerful person in the country. He was cautious at heart, something that had allowed him to carefully adjust his alliances to survive and prosper from the many political changes in the past few decades. The ability to overcome such caution, when opportunity becomes apparent, had also served him well though. “The tortoise has broken into a sprint”, had been the comment of one of his dumbfounded compatriots, as Chang had rushed to make the most of suddenly opportune events. He and Xiao were a formidable combination.
So once more, it's the elite making the decisions? They don't have a good track record do they. And the people are presented as a desparate rabble led, or exploited by extremists. So the novel presents things as they are which is a shame really, I was hoping that it would explore events from a different perspective, perhaps a new awakening, a rediscovery of political action, for surely, isn't this what's missing from our current reality? Okay, it's early days but even so...