End of the Beginning: Chapters 7 & 8
Chapter 7: July 13th
Phoenix, Arizona, United States
The U.S. Southwest had been through more than three decades of punishing drought; a drought that the odd year of crazy flooding could only offer a short-term escape from. As each year went by new measures were taken to deal with the new shortfall, while a return to more “normal” conditions was once again eagerly awaited. It had taken a long while for the reality that a new normal had taken over, one that could only intensify, and that the old normal would never return. Even the bypassing of Glen Canyon dam to allow the Colorado to flow freely into Lake Mead had only bought a few years. Once again, Lake Mead was below crisis levels and supplies to Arizona, California and Nevada had to be reduced. To the great annoyance of the Californian farmers, while they took the brunt of the restrictions, a pipe connected to the bottom of the lake sustained Las Vegas. The fact that Vegas only took 1% of the river flow, while the farmers took vastly larger amounts, was irrelevant to such indignation, and all those “farmers not gamblers” bumper stickers. Growing water-hungry crops in a desert had never been a sustainable enterprise.
The heat dome that had been hovering over the Southern U.S. for weeks now drove temperatures to extreme levels. Across a wide area of Arizona and Southern California the mercury went above 50 degrees centigrade on a daily basis. With such dry air, moisture was sucked out of the ground and out of any living thing. To go for a run, a walk, even to just be outside was a life-threatening activity. As the temperature gauges passed 52 degrees in Phoenix, and the air conditioners cranked up, the electricity grid strained. With little respite at night, the gas-fired power stations kicked in as the sun went down and the solar panels rested. The evening of July 9th had been different; as the sun fell toward the horizon a technical fault at one of the three Palo Verde nuclear reactors caused a shutdown. The plant had been operating for nearly fifty years, and no matter how well maintained, older plants tend to start failing more than they did in their youth. With the warmer than usual temperatures reducing the cooling efficiency of the gas-fired stations, low water levels removing the Hoover Dam as a backup, and transmission lines stressed by high temperatures and extensive forest fires, the grid went into spasm. In the two days that it took to get things fully back online, the joys of retirement to the sunny southwest turned into a nightmare for many older inhabitants. As the days passed the scale of the death toll became apparent, and the hospitals filled with those suffering from heat stroke. One old couple suffocated in their garage as they cooled themselves in their idling car. “Should have been an electric one, stupid old people” was a thought that had gone through many other people’s minds; especially the ones with their own solar roofs and car batteries to get them through the outage.
President Ashbridge was tired after spending the day touring hospitals and shelters to convey his emotional support for the community’s losses and for the individual suffering and heartbreak. Now he strove to reenergize himself to deliver a calm but uncomfortable message. Thank God he was not looking for reelection.
“Mr. President, the hall is ready for you” stated the aide, and Ashbridge nodded back. He walked purposefully through the crowd and into the middle of the room. The bulletproof vest was uncomfortable under his clothes but gave him a sense of comfort.
If they want to kill me, they will at least need a head shot.
After the polite applause died down, he took a few minutes to acknowledge the community’s pain and loss before moving on to the hard truths that only a lame duck president could convey.
“We must move beyond denial and false hope in accepting that a new reality has taken hold” he paused for a second “one that challenges some basic assumptions about the ways in which we have decided to live our lives. We have made many incremental changes in an attempt to adapt to this new reality, but at some point, we must accept that such adaptation is no longer an option. Instead, we must accept that there are limits on what is possible and that in some cases we have exceeded those limits ….” The mood of the audience was sullen rather than angry, perhaps the three decades of droughts and escalating crises had worn the fight out of them.
After the difficult question and answer period, Ashbridge was at last able to escape the public eye and retire into privacy. The discussions that he had had earlier that week with the heads of the electricity supply companies came to mind.
“We can’t build new fossil fuel plants, we can’t build new nuclear plants, hydro is being impacted by low water levels and the warmer water is affecting the cooling of the other plants. Solar and wind is great, but with the ‘battery miracle’ still at least a decade away something has gotta give!” the head of Arizona Electric had blurted out in a moment of frustration. He was right; something had to give.
The secret service detail opened the car door ahead of him. “My favourite billionaire!” he exclaimed with a smile on his face as he stepped into the official limousine. Michael Richardson smiled back and they exchanged the kind of manly hug that only great male friends can. Michael had been instrumental in getting the President to move from the military into politics and had supported him through thick and thin over the years. They exchanged small talk until safely ensconced in the privacy of the President’s quarters on Airforce One.
“My folks are starting to sniff around the possibility of some kind of emergency action on climate change. I quietly checked in with a few of the other investment houses and the increasing odds of such a change does seem to be seeping out from the scientists and policy wonks. We may need to get something in place pretty quickly through the discussions with the Chinese and Russians; otherwise the opposition may start mobilizing. Surprise is critical”, Richardson stated.
The President nodded in agreement, “I am coming around to the notion that we will need a state of emergency to ram the required changes through, and to be able to sideline the opposition. Things should be in place domestically by early September, so we will need to drive the international discussions fast.”
“So, game on it seems” Michael replied “I will do my best to keep the business and financial world in the dark while you get things ready. I can also use my own staff to keep tabs on any leaks coming out of official circles. I think we both need a drink!” With that both men slumped into the large leather chairs and enjoyed the excellent whiskey.
Moscow, Russia
President Yazov addressed his assembled team, “We have a historic opportunity to reduce the threat of American aggression against our country, while at the same time making major strides in combating climate change. We must play this game with great subtlety and care. One of the most important factors will be the readying of our own population for the challenges ahead through extensive propaganda that is supported by real actions. Whether it is through our tax policy, our purchasing decisions, regulations, government investments, and even individual lifestyle decisions, we must always send a message of complete dedication to the path that we have chosen. Our readiness to make such changes within our own society will help sell the integrity of our negotiating position with the Americans and make it politically difficult to paint us in a negative way with other countries. I am impressed with the work you have all done in the past week, now we must move forward with the speed necessary. The next few weeks and months will be a critical point in the history of our country, we must do what is necessary for the future of our Mother Russia.” With that, he stood up and calmly looked around the room, slowly making eye contact with each person in turn. The strength of his gaze underlined the firmness of his will.
Immediately, the organs of the Russian state and the elite bodies jumped into action. The media became full of stories about climate change and the need to act. A plethora of new tax policies, regulations and government directives were rushed through the parliament. Government ministers took to using subways, autonomous vehicles and bicycles to travel around, which made for quite a bit of general hilarity. The sight of the bear-like Yukovsky on his bicycle, surrounded by ten bicycle riding heavily armed bodyguards made for great spectacle as they rode through Moscow. He had needed a number of attempts to make sure that he remained upright whilst raising one hand from the handlebars to wave at the smiling crowds. To the great annoyance of the enemies of Russia, Yazov’s ratings soared and the Russian people rallied around the calls for action.
Beijing, China
Zhaohui entered the room, and the large wooden table stretched out in front of her. Seated around it was the power elite of China, all eyes turned to greet her and the President. They sat down next to Chang, in the centre of the table.
President Hufang spoke, “I trust that everyone has read the briefing papers provided by Zhaohui and Chang, they have done an excellent job in working with our Russian allies. We have been waiting for the day when we can free ourselves from American imperialism and reassert China’s regional leadership. Our preparations have served us well and we must now play the cards that we have worked so hard to gain. The Americans are weak, and we must not allow them to gain strength before we take the initiative. At the same time, we must play this game with great care so as not to awaken the spirits of our adversary. When truly stirred they can be an overwhelmingly focused and unstoppable opponent. The first step is to display that we are truly committed to the actions that we will be proposing to the world, and then act rapidly to make sure that we gain the advantage in the implementation of those changes. The Americans are woefully unprepared; the cuts that we propose will cripple their economy in the short-term, and thus provide us with a golden opportunity. I expect you all to play your part for the good of the party and the future of China. If anyone wishes to state their concerns, they should say them now.” As he gazed around the room an eerie, uncomfortable, silence filled it. “Good, then let’s discuss our next moves …” as he turned to Zhaohui.
“As you see in the report, we have made great strides in moving to a low-carbon transport system. With the intensification of climate change, we will have to push even harder. This will require a greater move to public transport, autonomous and electric vehicles, bicycles and walking. Together with extensive media messaging, and policy changes, the elites will have to be seen to be setting an example by their actions. We need the consent of the people for such large changes, and the leadership of the country cannot be immune. We cannot have a “do as I say, not as I do” approach, as that could easily fuel public mistrust and oppositional forces. Anyone not accepting this reality will have to be dealt with forcefully. During wartime we would draft both the rich and the poor to fight, and we would ration by need rather than by wealth. We do this because we know that this is the only way to bring the country together as one and have the legitimacy to ask our people to risk their lives. We are in a war, to maintain a habitable place for our society upon this Earth.”
She paused for a second, to allow for comments but there were none coming. “I do understand that some of the proposed changes will be difficult as they may be seen as a step backward from the increased wealth of the past few decades. The move away from meat consumption, and excessive food consumption in general, will be one of them.” She purposefully strained to keep her attention away from those around the table whose girth betrayed their excessive consumption. “This change will both reduce carbon emissions and greatly reduce our reliance upon imported food. We must all set an example in this respect.”
Chang noted the increasingly sullen mood in the room and decided to step in to soften Zhaohui’s message. “We must look on the bright side of these changes, look at myself for example. Since I changed my diet and decided to use the official car less often I feel so much better, a feeling that my doctor has confirmed as being more than just psychological. In addition, my public image has been greatly improved as I spend more time in and among our fellow citizens. My new svelte self is also getting significantly more attention from my beautiful wife!” He paused to allow for the round of surprised laughter to die down. Zhaohui stifled a grimace; that was really not an image she wanted to have in her mind.
“We have brought our people out of poverty into a good life. That stage is now over, and we must now lead them on a path to sustain that good life. With the United States beset with such internal troubles, we have a historic opportunity to be able to have that good life and keep our region safe from foreign interference. Yes, there will be sacrifices, but what a small price to be remembered as the leadership that had the courage and fortitude to take the actions needed to keep our great nation safe.” As Chang’s message sank in, the mood of the room changed to one of dogged determination. President Hufang noted with appreciation the transformation in Chang, perhaps he could be his successor.
Chapter 8: July 14th
Jaipur, Rajasthan, India
The monsoon had been weeks late, and when it arrived it had been a shadow of its former self; the super-heated parched air and ground had sapped its strength as it had travelled toward Northern India. As the monsoon finally arrived, the mixture of extreme temperatures and humidity made things even worse for a while. The death tolls stretched into the many thousands, and that was only the officially reported numbers.
Jaya Rao sometimes felt that the position of Prime Minister had been a poisoned chalice. Her predecessor had benefitted from the country’s rapid economic growth, while she had inherited the worsening climate problems. She had won the 2024 general election against stiff opposition, as she preached a message of balanced growth, not one many in the business community and the ranks of the poor wanted to hear. After successfully dealing with the Bangladeshi crisis, after Typhoon David had devastated that country, she had squeezed in another win in 2029. No matter how hard her government tried though, the climate always seemed to be one step ahead. The growing economy had allowed for the increased food imports that had kept the country from mass starvation, but she had seen the projections that showed that the situation could be tipped into outright catastrophe within a decade.
She strode out onto the air-conditioned stage of the new Great Hall of the Jaipur Exhibition and Conference Centre, a testament to the strides that India’s economy had made in the past decades. The room stretched out in front of her like one huge aircraft hanger, with the overwhelming blandness that was the hallmark of such centers. The roar of applause greeted her, like a wave of energy washing over the stage. She waved appreciatively to the huge crowd and then motioned for them to be seated. After a little while the applause died down and the room became quiet.
“We are at an historic juncture for both our beloved India and for the world in general. Sitting here behind me are the parents of Ammu Patel. A beautiful young girl who went to collect water from the well for her family and perished in the heat of the day.” She motioned for the parents to stand up, and they rose to their feet. She spoke directly to them “I know what it is like to lose a child, and understand that nothing will ever assuage your grief. My prayers are with you” and then embraced each of them at length. As they sat down she turned back to face the audience.
“If any of us think that we can keep our own families safe from the future that awaits us if we do not deal with climate change then we are truly delusional. None of us are safe. Not the farmer in the field, not the professional in the city, and not the rich man in his expensive suit!” Her voice rising to a crescendo, before she paused with her eyes communicating her strength and passion to the room. “We must follow a balanced path that allows more and more to climb out of poverty into a good life, while at the same time making sure that we do not destroy this new prosperity by awakening the fury of Mother Earth. We are the inhabitants of a home that we must help sustain and must always be conscious of how much we can take from it. Yes to peace, yes to prosperity, yes to sustainability!” The audience rose as one, the applause and cheers echoing around her.