End of the Beginning: Chapters 16 & 17
Chapter 16: July 31st
The Austrian Alps (early afternoon local time)
“I think that we can all agree that the major lesson that we can take from the India-Pakistan crisis is that in the current circumstances things can escalate very rapidly in unpredictable ways. Once climate change really kicks into gear, we may very well not be able to manage the outcomes, nor maintain the current social order. We all know what that could mean for our own futures. Our only option is to take the actions required and accept some reductions in our own fortunes as the cost of protecting ourselves. Better a managed decline than a chaotic transition.” Michael Richardson paused and took a sip of the Earl Grey tea from the fine china cup as he reclined in the sumptuous leather chair. He was surrounded by a small group of some of the most powerful people in the world, hidden away in a private room in an exclusive resort in the Austrian Alps. Easily accessible for those that use helicopters like others use taxis. Although they all shared the fortunes of great wealth, they were a diverse group; from the conservative attire of old European wealth, to the faded Gucci jeans and blazer of the thirty-something billionaire. What they also shared was a deep understanding of the need to manage the ways in which society combated climate change, ways that would benefit and protect them as much as possible.
A tall, elegant woman, exuding both privilege and power sat opposite him. “My concern Michael is what we do with the powerful mavericks who will lose the most from a rapid move away from fossil fuels, especially the ones in your country, they could cause us a lot of problems. You must be able to guarantee the needed control over the media and security forces to allow you to effectively deal with them.”
An older, balding gentleman, in a somewhat crumpled Armani suit laughed out loud, “the media will do as it is told, as it always has. We can easily paint such opponents as vile, treasonous creatures that are selfishly threatening the very existence of civilization by their obstinacy. If needed, we can throw in a few stories about some disgusting habits to thoroughly discredit them. Then if they still don’t accept the inevitable, the power of the state will fall upon them, won’t it Michael?”
Nodding softly, but assuredly, Michael replied, “We have full confidence in our ability to control the security forces, and therefore deal with any opponents, no matter how wealthy or supposedly powerful. The odd sacrificial lamb for the benefit of the masses may actually be quite useful in solidifying support for the required changes and would serve to discipline others that would challenge us. Perhaps we should select some useful victims in advance?” He quipped, smiling to himself; quite impressed with his new insight. The others happily nodded their approval as their minds selected likely candidates.
“We can also pick up a few on the pretence that they are suspected of planning terrorist activities, that should put the wind up any others planning to oppose us” said a tall lean man whose short-cropped hair and demeanour showed his military pedigree.
“Always good to have the military on our side General” observed the elegant woman appreciatively.
Brune Schmidt, sitting to Michael’s left, took a sterner tone, “Are we sure that we can localize the economic fallout in the Middle East, the last thing we need is oil supply disruptions and yet more millions trying to get into Europe from the newly bankrupt OPEC countries?”
Michael replied, “With the planned reductions in oil usage there will be more than enough spare capacity to make up for any Middle East failed states. The stockpiles that we have put in place should also take care of any short-term issues.” Then, looking at the General, he continued, “perhaps you can talk to the possible refugee issues?”
The General nodded, nearly imperceptibly, “We are very aware of the refugee issue. The refugee flow can be cut off at a relatively few specific choke points, given that the only land passage is through Turkey. With the aid of the Israeli army it will also be relatively straightforward to stop any flow westwards into North Africa. In addition, our navies have planned in detail to stop any small craft trying to make it across the Mediterranean. We will need cooperation from the media of course to help public opinion deal with the inevitable collateral damage.”
Brune sighed softly, “and to think that we were attacking an American President for wanting to build a wall only a few years back. Seems we are all in the wall building business now. The Indian’s have quite a high one to keep out the Bangladeshi’s, but no matter how hard you try General, some refugees will have the right mixture of intelligence, cunning, perseverance and luck to get through.”
Michael interrupted, “the very people who would be great assets to your country as long as you put them to good use! We have found that programs such as residency for military service have worked out exceedingly well. There will also always be those with the right skills, like doctors, engineers and scientists, that it could be useful to provide legal immigration for; a process of Darwinian selection that will provide you with some highly skilled and motivated prospective citizens. Better to manage it that way than force them underground and into a life of crime.” Brune nodded, “you do have a good point Michael, as always …”
Mr. faded Gucci jeans and blazer piped up, “I do think that we are underestimating the impact upon private pension plans. With an extended period of economic contraction and no growth, their assets, heavily exposed to shares, will be greatly devalued as earnings growth assumptions are radically revised downwards. I know that a lot of the pain was already dealt with during the early 2020’s crisis, but there are still a lot of people that will take a big hit. This time it will be explicit government actions, rather than a random financial crash, that will be the cause. It will make for a lot of very mad citizens, many of them in the top 10%.”
Brune shook her head, “thank god we didn’t get so carried away with private pensions, you have a real mess on your hands in the U.S.” as she looked at Michael.
“Part of the overall rescue plan for the financial sector”, he replied, “there will be a lot of pain to be shared around and we have devised plans that will place the least pain on the least wealthy of citizens. It’s the only way that we will be able to keep the country behind our plans. The majority have to see the richer elements of society as taking their fair share of pain, if they themselves are going to have to make some painful adjustments.”
A tall, wiry man to Michael’s right who had been quietly listening to the others shifted in his chair, removing his professorial glasses and resting them on his leg as he gathered his thoughts. The others showed their respect for his insights by patiently waiting for his utterance. “After the Great Depression in the 1930’s the enlightened leaders in the United States accepted that some accommodation was required with the populace to allow them to remain in power. There were some that resisted the required changes vehemently, but thankfully the enlightened ones prevailed. The challenge was peacefully dealt with, better to co-opt with a few crumbs than feed a revolution. In Germany, the leaders took the route of Fascism but lost control of what they had thought would be their puppet leader. We must always remember that history, and not build up a group that could turn upon us in the midst of a crisis. We are the enlightened leaders of our time and must remember that we need to maintain the consent of those that we govern, so that we can use them to thwart those that want a different path. Our own actions and examples will be very important for this. As during the 1930’s and the war that followed, the elites must at least be seen to be sharing some of the sacrifices. Those elite members that do not fall in line must be shamed and disciplined until they comply. Public shows of sacrifice and good works will serve us well. The Russian leadership seems to have already taken this lesson to heart. Stunts such as senior ministers cycling to work with their bodyguards in tow may seem a little ridiculous, but the effect upon public support has been very positive. Like Putin before him, President Yazov has great skill in doing what is required to keep public support. We must have the humility to learn from our competitors.”
Michael nodded appreciatively, “A great thought to discuss over our lunch, as always perfectly timed.”
Wyoming, United States (mid-morning local time)
“That son of a bitch Ashbridge, and his pet dog Richardson, think that they can give me a lesson in how to deal with the challenges of the world?” Jared Edmunds exclaimed, glaring at his golf partner, “thank God Ashbridge can’t run for a third term and we stopped him anointing his chosen successor”. He was used to getting his way, no matter who tried to stop him. Government regulations were “socialist bullshit tying up the real producers of wealth”, taxes were “outright bloody theft” and climate change was “a conspiracy by those anti-progress crazies”. Even if climate change was real, we could always geo-engineer it away so that the great American Way of making money would continue. He was a business savant, growing his family’s already conspicuous wealth into gargantuan proportions. Then leveraging that into political power, with other like-minded plutocrats. Now some of the elites had lost their minds and were pushing for sacrifices and regulations to halt “ecological disaster”. Even talking about a period of no growth and sharing some of his wealth with the lazy, stupid, masses. That kind of dangerous socialist crap had to be stopped in its tracks.
Fred Kasich, Edmund’s trusted advisor tried to rein back his boss. “Richardson and Ashbridge have put together a very strong coalition that we have to be conscious of, although we had thought that once the election was past that threat would be gone.. None of the presidential candidates have the same aggressive stance on the climate, no matter what they say in public. Our money and connections made sure of that. My contacts in government and the military are starting to get the feeling that there may be a November surprise though, some kind of emergency declared to keep them in power. A Hail Mary pass over all our successful work to make sure none of the candidates will be problematic for us. We are also seeing a subtle, but noticeable, change in press coverage towards the need for much bigger action on emission cuts. Freedom News even mentioned the need for a war-like effort against climate change.”
“Freedom News?!” exclaimed Jared, “I would expect such crap from the liberal media but not from them.” Fred nodded in agreement. “Can we eliminate the problem if need be” Jared asked.
“We have the capability if we want to go there” came the answer.
“Yes, we bloody well want to go there. Make sure that we are ready to go if needed. If what you are picking up is true, our window of opportunity may be very small. Shame that Ashbridge is such a bloody choir boy and hero, tougher measures will be required”, was his reply.
With that he pulled his club above his head and swung through the golf ball. “Still hooking a bit to the left”, he observed annoyed.
Washington, United States (late afternoon local time)
Kelly sat down on the comfortable sofa and took in the scene in front of her. The thought of being in the Oval Office still sent a tingle down her spine, so much drama and history had played out in this room. Being there felt like being in the very nerve center of the most powerful nation in the world. Her consciousness was jolted away from her thoughts as she realized that she was being observed.
“Dreaming of being President, you know that I am still very much alive?” quipped Ashbridge as their eyes met. It was a warm relaxed smile that followed, the kind that she had not seen from him since the India-Pakistan crisis.
“I was raised to be ambitious” she replied, mustering the most relaxed and off-hand manner that she could. Ashbridge strode around the sofa opposite her and sat down on the chair at the end of two sofas, like a parent taking the head of the table.
Sitting next to Kelly was Richard Evans, the Treasury Secretary. Evans was one of the few African Americans to have made it to the top in finance, having worked on Wall Street and then becoming a professor at New York University. The tall lean body adorned immaculately in an elegant suit and tie, together with an intense focus displayed the disciplined nature of the man. His searing intelligence, self-confidence and physical power were kept within an exterior of absolute composure and self-control. Only rarely would they escape through his eyes, with a look that could freeze even the strongest. Then the composure would reassert itself and a calm serenity would seep back into them. As his life had become better, and he gained greater authority and respect, the daemons from his younger life of struggle had receded. Allowing him to enjoy life more and treat those that would insult and belittle him more with disdain than anger. A history of criticism of the financial industry had served him well in the aftermath of the financial crash, when there was no way that another Wall Street insider would be allowed to be Treasury Secretary. “No more wolves looking after the hen house” was the refrain. With the President’s support he had cut the financial industry down to size and removed its ability to “fuck everything up while making out like bandits”. There were going to be no well-paid speaking engagements for him after he retired, nor dinner engagements at Long Island mansions.
Sitting opposite Kelly was Jose Calabrez, the head of Homeland Security; more stocky than lean, with a penchant for double-breasted suits and Italian shoes. He made no attempt to hide his good fortune of being born into wealth but managed to do so in a way that did not invite loathing. He was a generous and likeable man, taking pleasure in using his wealth and connections to help others. At the same time though, he was no fool and expected and received the same from others. Once he was your friend, he would remain your friend, but breach that friendship and he could become a very dangerous enemy. To be generous and trusted in this way, but also respected, allowed him to build a formidable network of allies. Even those that did not share his views enjoyed his company, allowing him to be an invaluable assessor of the general mood for the President. He had seen the change in Evans in the past few years and was working on bringing him out of his shell. “People like dealing with people they like and you need to relax a little and let them feel like they connect with you” was his constant refrain to Evans. Over time, their unlikely friendship had blossomed.
Sat next to Jose was Ashbridge’s long-time friend, and Secretary of Defence, retired General Alexander McAdams. Fifteen years older than the President, he had been his mentor in the military and was instrumental in getting him to follow his own move into political life. McAdams was respected throughout the services as a true military man that had seen active duty and always looked out for those serving under him. With the President’s support, he had tamed the war-hungry and incredibly wasteful Pentagon bureaucracy after they had brought the United States to the brink of war with Russia and China. Some of the savings were redirected toward services and support for the war veterans that the Pentagon bureaucrats had treated so shoddily. Such actions were not lost on the rank and file of the military services, and he was easily the most respected leader by those that actually did the fighting. For a military man he had the surprisingly warm presence of a demanding but caring parent. There could be no illusion though that he would take whatever actions were necessary to protect his country, and those that he cared for.
Together with Richardson, they were the President’s inner circle. The one’s that he could trust with the momentous changes that he was putting in place.
The President dropped the heavy dossier onto the table in front of him, “Very impressive, I have to commend you all for your work. The only piece that I am still not fully convinced of is the catalyst for the declaration of a state of emergency. Yes, the threat of climate change is the greatest one that has ever threatened our nation, but it does not have the immediacy and emotional impact of a Pearl Harbour or 9-11 had. The Pakistan-India crisis could have played that role, but there were so many possible factors involved it just wasn’t possible to tie it directly to climate change. Our opponents have also pulled out all the stops to make sure of that, confusing the underlying cause with such things as religious hatred and uncontrolled population growth, removing it as a catalyst for domestic changes. They are so practiced at clouding any issue with uncertainty about the true causes. We need that immediate crisis; we need to bring the opposition out into the open so that we can entrap them in a treasonous plot. Michael Richardson tells me that the opposition is pretty much on a hair trigger, so feeding them with the right information could quickly push them to expose themselves. What do you think Jose?”
Quietness invaded the room as they all waited for Jose’s response. “I would agree that there is a good chance of triggering them into making mistakes that we can use to expose them, but it is not a certainty,” was his measured response, “it would need to be done with a great deal of finesse so as not be too obviously a ruse. A trail of events that trigger suspicion; a sudden summit meeting with China, India and the EU, then further escalation in government and controlled media comments about the urgency of climate action. The odd forced resignation of some officials not loyal to you, combined with you not actively searching for new living arrangements. Then some well-placed comments from people related to those in the know – such as siblings, spouses, boyfriends, and girlfriends together with an indiscreet comment from another head of state with a weak repudiation from the White House. That should really get things swirling.”
Kelly shifted uncomfortably in her seat, “Isn’t surprise the greatest advantage that we have, and this approach would risk throwing it away”.
Ashbridge turned to her with the expression of an amused teacher with his star pupil, “the problem we have is that the forces that oppose us are very strong and could at the least significantly obstruct our plans. We need to be able to condemn them in the eyes of the public and use the threat of treason to have the masses support a very visible destruction of the leaders that will intimidate the rest. The identification of the leaders of the opposition as traitors will also help us destroy the still strong hold that the climate-denial conspiracy stories still have over a significant portion of the population. At that point I am sure that our friends in the media can help with a few disgusting revelations to help drag the leaders’ reputations into the mud.” He paused for a moment to make sure that his words had been fully understood then turned back to Jose. “Any officials that we can easily remove?”
There was a glint in Jose’s eyes, “Wilkinson, the FBI Director, we have some rather juicy things that he would never want to be exposed. A resignation due to ‘family issues’ could easily be triggered. He has been a thorn in our side ever since you took office, and the deputy director is definitely an ally. The timing would send a message that we were clearing the decks ready for something.”
The President showed his approval with a wide smile as he reclined back into his chair, “yes … yes, that’s perfect!”
Jose continued, “As for the rumour spreading, our head scientist could be fed a little more than he should really know. Indiscreetly of course, perhaps Kelly could take care of that, for the good of the country? I am sure that our enemies are watching him closely”
Kelly surveyed the faces around her, and then uncomfortably accepted, “for the good of the country.”
It was Richard’s turn to comment, “Mr. President, you do understand that these political maneuvers will place a large target on your back, especially when the Vice President is no friend of our plans?”
Ashbridge nodded in resigned agreement, “I spent a big chunk of my life risking death for my country, and I am ready to do it again. Of course, if I get killed, I am going be really pissed at Jose for not providing me with good enough Secret Service protection!” As his face turned to a smile, the others laughed.
“Well, once we meet in hell you can show your annoyance for the rest of eternity” Jose shot back.
Chapter 17: August 1st
Beijing, China (2:30pm local time)
“So, we once defined progress as moving from bicycles to cars. Now we are turning the capital back into a center for walking and bicycling”, President Hufang observed.
“And electric trams, autonomous electric vehicles and subways Mr. President”, came the refrain from the burly figure of the Beijing Mayor. Rising to his feet, Hufang showed that the meeting was over. After the perfunctory handshakes and niceties, he relaxed back in his chair to enjoy the few minutes of contemplation before the next meeting. Things were progressing well; with the only variable being Ashbridge’s ability to commit the U.S. to the agreed changes. The India-Pakistan incident had helped stabilize the region, with a strong military government in Pakistan and an improved relationship with India. It had also strengthened his hand within the party for the radical climate change plans. A more stable Asia, a more inwardly looking United States, and a China much better placed than most for a new green economy. Such a legacy appealed; it would be something that any national leader could truly be proud of. The sun shining through the windows was tangible proof of the great strides that China had made in moving away from the pollution of its recent past. China was the hare and the United States the tortoise, now was not the time to rest, but rather to press the advantage.
A gentle knock on the door brought his attention back to the room.
“ready for your next meeting?”, his assistant asked politely. Hufang nodded and poured himself some more tea. After a few moments the doors opened, and his guests entered. “Please sit down, some tea perhaps?” was his welcome to them. Chang and Zhaohui both nodded in agreement as they sat down opposite while he poured the tea into the exquisite porcelain teacups. “How are you enjoying the joys of public transport and bicycling Chang?” the President asked amusedly.
“I am told that it is good for my health, as well as for the amusement of the people and my wife. Whatever is needed for the good of our great nation” was the pointed reply.
Zhaohui struggled to hide her amusement.
The President then turned to more serious matters, “how did your meeting with the Iranians and Iraqis go, do they trust our commitments to source our reduced oil demands predominantly from themselves and the Russians?” he asked of Chang.
“The meetings went extremely well and we definitely have their trust. Amazing to think how the U.S. invasion of Iraq ended up allying the Iraqi people with their Iranian Shia cousins and therefore with us. With the reciprocal agreements on nuclear plants, armaments and other produce we are integrating their economies tightly with our own. All payments will be between our local currencies. Together with our agreements with the Russians and others, we can fully meet our fossil fuel needs, as well as be paid for a significant part of our exports, outside the U.S. dollar system.”
Hufang nodded appreciatively, “that is excellent news, you are truly proving yourself as a negotiator and diplomat”, as he turned to Zhaohui, “what about our domestic plans, are they coming together well?”
“Generally yes I do have some areas where I may need your help though. The biggest challenge is with the protection and relocation of the industries in the Pearl River Delta. There is a lot of resistance given that we can’t give a definitive timeline for sea level rise, with many businesses seeing it as something that can be dealt with later. In their eyes, they have more pressing immediate needs and the local government is tending to side with them.”
Hufang remained motionless and silent for a few moments, seemingly lost within himself. “In a perfect world we would be able to achieve everything that we considered necessary, but this is not a perfect one. We need to keep the support of the people, and especially of the business community. Pushing them too hard when they do not perceive the need could easily backfire on our overall plans. From what I understand, this could be an issue within the foreseeable future, but it may also be a number of decades away. Let’s not push too hard on this one.” Zhaohui nodded in agreement while he continued, “and the other areas?”
She took a sip from her cup to give her a moment to think. “The other big issue is with resistance to the directives on radically tightened fuel efficiency and electrification of transport, many in industry feel that they have already outperformed previous targets and are now being asked for too much. I feel that a public celebration of their achievements with yourself, together with your artful arm-twisting services, would help things along.”
The President smiled, both at the thought of arm-twisting and at the great progress that Zhaohui had made in the skills of flattery and manipulation, “Make the required arrangements”. As the discussion went on the sunlight outside fell onto a city centre returned to the sound of bicycles and pedestrians, joined by the whirr of electric vehicles and trams.