End of the Beginning: Chapters 12 & 13
Chapter 12: July 20th
North Island, New Zealand
Kelly gazed across at Jim, “You certainly were hungry” she smiled “seems you have quite a bit of stamina for an old guy.”
He laughed, “I think that this old dog has a good few years left in him yet.” He slipped out of bed and quickly dressed, “See you at breakfast” was his parting comment as he kissed her goodbye. She lay back contentedly in the rich sheets and deep pillows before forcing herself up to get ready for the long day. Her ear buzzed her awake and she sleepily uttered “answer”.
“Kelly?” the disembodied voice asked.
“Yes”, she replied as she recognized its’ owner.
“I need to brief you on the unfolding situation in Pakistan, as things may blow up within the next few days ….”
Once again in the underground conference room, everyone took their places around the table with copious supplies of tea and coffee. “This morning we will connect with Julian Matthews, who is an expert in the analysis of global albedo modification technologies – increasing the ability of the Earth to reflect sunlight”, Dmitry informed the group. He pressed a button on the console and a middle-aged man’s face appeared on the screen.
After the usual pleasantries, Julian started, “None of these options is a panacea, they simply act as a short-term palliative to provide some breathing space for us to do the hard work of reducing the levels of warming gases in the atmosphere. To treat them as any more than that will be simply delay the inevitable rise in global temperatures. We would be simply treating the symptoms while not dealing with the underlying disease.”
“The most well-known and the most available for large scale use, is that of putting significant amounts of sun blocking particles, aerosols, into the stratosphere. It is also a very cost-effective option, at about $1 billion per-year. This would mimic what has happened previously with large volcanic eruptions that have reduced global temperatures through the ‘global dimming’ produced by the large amounts of such particles that they throw into the atmosphere. Although the cooling effect is well modeled, other possible effects upon the atmosphere are not thoroughly understood. One of the greatest risks is that upon the monsoons and Sahelian rainfall, with some models showing a significant reduction and therefore negative consequences for regional agriculture.”
Mahavir interjected, “exactly what we are worried about, India is already dangerously close to food shortages.”
Dmitry responded, “I think that the need for guarantees around food transfers before any use of this technology is very well understood.” He looked at Kelly and Chang, who both nodded vigorously in agreement.
Julian continued, “with less light reaching the Earth’s surface it could be presumed that plant photosynthesis would be reduced, but aerosols actually scatter the light in ways that increase its availability to plant life. This was shown with the Mount Pinatubo eruption, where plant growth was observed to increase marginally, rather than decrease.”
After a further hour of more detailed discussions, Julian summarized. “Is it possible to create a significant cooling impact through stratospheric aerosol injection? Yes, but the risks of this are still not fully understood given the sheer complexity and interconnectivity of the atmospheric and other Earth systems. It also only reduces the symptoms of human-induced climate change; it does not directly reduce climate-changing gas levels. Given these issues, the use of this technology should only be used to provide a short-term breathing space while more fundamental actions are taken.”
Julian then moved onto other possibilities. “The other area that has the greatest viability and applicability are the technologies addressing Arctic brightening. Given the recent summer solstice ‘blue-ocean’ event in the Arctic, the need to rapidly reduce Arctic reflectivity has become a critical one. This is to both reverse the increased intake of the sun’s energy and to forestall any chances of significant methane hydrate decomposition. As stratospheric aerosols tend to flush out of the Arctic skies four times faster than in the tropics, the use of stratospheric aerosol-driven dimming has limited benefit for that region. In addition, given the increased rate of warming in the Arctic, much larger reductions in incoming solar radiation are required. The most promising technology for the kind of significant localized cooling that we need for the Arctic is the injection of aerosols in the lower atmosphere, at cloud bases, that will stimulate the creation of more cloud droplets and increase the reflectivity of the clouds.”
Thomas interrupted, “But what about during the winter darkness, when the clouds act like a blanket to keep the heat in?”
“A very good question” Julian responded. “There are a number of technologies available to reduce cloud formation, a cocktail of different chemicals is looking like the best option. In the summer we increase and brighten clouds to reflect the Sun, then in the winter darkness reduce the clouds to allow more heat to escape.” Thomas nodded in agreement.
“At the global level the best combination does seem to be global cooling through stratospheric aerosols with localized specific actions at the poles. No need to discuss such things as ‘mirrors in space’, still more science fiction than scientific reality.” As everyone looked at each other in general agreement, Dmitry thanked Julian for his briefing and closed down the video feed.
“Now for some well-deserved lunch!” he exclaimed as he rose from his seat.
After lunch, Dmitry opened the afternoon session, “Welcome back everyone, I hope you all enjoyed your lunch. We will now be covering the possibilities of carbon dioxide capture and storage. Petra Koslowski, from San Francisoco, will be presenting on this subject.” He switched on the video link and everyone focused on the screen, “Good evening Petra, please go ahead”.
Petra responded, “Good evening everyone, or should I say good afternoon? I assume that everyone has access to my presentation.” After a round of introductions, she continued, “The area of Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, is one that could theoretically allow for significant capture and removal of carbon emissions. The most promising technology is that of CCS at the site of emission, capturing the concentrated carbon emissions from electricity generating and other industrial facilities. After a false start in the 2010’s, the use has grown substantially, but there is still a very large amount of extra CO2 that could be captured. To capture the gases on the scale necessary, a huge new pipeline infrastructure would have to be built between the electricity generating and industrial plants and the underground storage sites. A last issue is the possible escape of the stored gas from the storage sites, one that may be more of a political than a scientific issue. CCS could provide a relatively quick way to reduce carbon emissions. Any questions?” There were none.
“Please continue Petra”, Dmitry said, puncturing the quiet. “Related to CCS is the BECCS solution, which envisages the large-scale cultivation of biomass, such as fast-growing switchgrass, to be burnt to produce electricity with the resultant emissions being captured using CCS technology. This has the drawback of utilizing very large amounts of arable land to grow the energy crops, with the probable displacement of food crops or increased levels of deforestation. Although the widespread use of this solution was assumed in a large number of the United Nations climate change forecasts, it is currently not a viable solution when compared to wind, solar, hydro and nuclear. The social and political issues of growing energy crops, rather than food crops, are also significant. To summarize this section, both industrial CCS and BECCS are viable options, but probably not for the quick impacts that you are looking for. Another proposed technology is that of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage, or DACS. This is a variation of CCS, where carbon is captured from the air rather from the output of a power generating facility. As the concentration of carbon dioxide is much lower in the general atmosphere than at the outlet of a generating facility, the energy costs are very significantly higher. At a basic level of physics and chemistry, this should not be surprising. We are taking a concentrated form of carbon and turning it into a gas that is then diffused into the atmosphere where it resides in low concentrations. We are then attempting to reverse this process on a scale and timeframe that is tens of thousands of time faster than the Earth manages to do through such things as rock weathering. Not at the state of development where it could be rapidly rolled out, and the energy cost would be extremely high.“
Zhaohui leaned forward, “so what you are saying is that a combination of renewables, nuclear, radical energy efficiency measures, and current industrial CCS easily beats any option based on BECCS or DACS?”
Petra nodded in agreement, “Yes, that’s correct”.
Zhaohui then asked, “If we need to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide levels back to safe levels over a few decades are there any other options open to us?”
Petra smiled, “Another possibility is that of ocean fertilization, which held out the hope of being able to reduce atmospheric carbon while at the same time stopping further dangerous ocean acidification. By ramping up the natural production of carbon utilizing phytoplankton in the oceans, which then sink to the bottom of the water column after death, a major drawdown of carbon could result. Unfortunately, the oceans are extremely complex systems and there are numerous known possible negative impacts from a large-scale intervention into ocean geochemistry. These include the increased production of other climate changing gases, severe and unpredictable habitat changes that affect overall ocean productivity, and reductions in surface level oxygen. Additionally, given the sheer complexity of the systems involved, there could easily be many negative surprises. Given that there are also large uncertainties about how much extra carbon would be reliably captured, the risks are very high with respect to the possible benefits.”
“What about the rock weathering proposals?” asked Mahavir.
“I was just getting to that option”, she replied. “The option of enhancing the natural weathering process through the mining, pulverizing and dispersion of silicates does seem to be one option which could be scaled up relatively rapidly and has low levels of uncertainties and environmental risks. The pulverized silicate would be spread over vegetated areas of the tropics that are most amenable to the rock weathering that captures the carbon in solid form. These are mostly tropical forests, some areas of cropland in Asia, and heavily weathered acidic tropical cropland. There would be local large-scale impacts from the extensive silicate mining activities, in the Ethiopian Traps, Indian Deccan Traps and Brazilian Parana Traps. These would be larger in scale than the current global coal mining industry. The rock weathering process would also increase flows of inorganic carbon and alkaline waters into the oceans, creating a reduction in ocean acidity. Thus, this option results in both reduced atmospheric carbon and reduced ocean acidification. There are added benefits through marine fertilization, and the enhancement of tropical forests, which add to the reductions in atmospheric carbon. These tend to offset the energy costs involved, and with recent technological advancements, this option is seen as being significantly less expensive than DACS while providing the added benefit of reducing ocean acidification. Such costs are relative though, with the cost of a 50ppm reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels estimated at about $200 trillion; $5 trillion per year on average over a forty year period.”
Guiseppe interrupted, “that’s about one twentieth the size of the current global economy, so we are talking about quite a wealth transfer given where these activities will take place. Would be a hard sell in the other nations, but a definite carrot for the areas directly involved!”
Petra replied, “not my area of expertize, but may be an additional positive for this option.” On the balance of costs, benefits, and risks the enhanced weathering option does stand out. The utilization of a well-known natural process certainly does provide a lot of confidence in the understanding of environmental outcomes. The recent scaled-up tests have validated the previous modeling of the enhanced weathering processes. Changes in dietary habits, reducing meat and dairy consumption, would add to the carbon sequestration by allowing significant land areas to recover to their natural state. In addition, the emissions related to industrialized meat and dairy agriculture would be reduced – helping nations to meet their emission reduction targets.” There were grimaces from Kelly and Jim,
“The meat and dairy industries, together with fast food outlets and retailers that sell their products, are incredibly powerful in the U.S. This would also need a significant cultural change” Jim replied.
Mahavir chimed in, “Make meat and dairy much more expensive and people will eat less of it, and then maybe they will get less fat and much healthier. When I was in Texas a few years ago I saw pictures of what the average Texan looked like in the 1950’s, very slim and fit. That’s totally unlike what they look like nowadays. In World War 2, the British rationed meat and people were ok with that because they knew it was to help win the war. We are declaring war on climate change. We should define an acceptable level of meat and dairy consumption, given both the climate and health effects that excessive consumption has.” Heads nodded around the room.
We will need a state of emergency in the U.S. to get all of these changes through, and a big stick to beat other countries with Jim thought to himself.
Pakistan Border with India, Near Lahore
Even in the early morning the heat was searing across the vast slums that now lay between Lahore and the border crossing with India at Wagah. Abdul Bhat stood atop a small hill, below him was spread an ocean of his followers ready to challenge the will of India to keep them out. This was an army of the dispossessed, an army of those without hope that thirsted for a future and a meaning to their lives. The Pakistani army had faded away during the night, on orders from Abdul’s allies, leaving nothing between the hordes and the Indian border. Horns sounded, and a million people started walking towards the border. Hidden among them were those with the weapons and explosives required to drive a wedge through the border fortifications.
“Now we will see what the Indians are made of!”, Abdul stated as he turned to the man next to him, “we will either have many, many martyrs or the undoing of the separation of our two countries.” The masses moved across the plain north of Wagah, crossing the border between the two countries and moving toward the Indian fortifications that lay 200 meters farther on.
“They are now on Indian territory sir” reported the lieutenant to General Raman.
“There will be no firing without my direct command”, he replied. He understood the geopolitical ramifications of the situation and would rather provide the photo opportunity of a million Pakistani’s beating against the Indian fortifications than news stories of India slaughtering thousands and thousands of civilians. It would be too hot for them soon, and they would have to retreat to areas with some shade from the rising sun. “They are carrying ladders sir, hundreds of them,” said the lieutenant. Raman pulled the binoculars to his eyes and scanned the vast crowd; he spotted the wooden ladders being carried toward the wall. As the first ranks of the crowd neared the wall, the ladders were raised into the air.
“Shoot the people holding up the ladders” he ordered. Shots rang out across the wall, hundreds fell, and the ladders fell to the earth. Others took the place of those that had fallen and once again the ladders rose into the air, nearly within reach of the wall; again, more shots, and many more dead. As the deadly process repeated, Raman ordered his troops to continue while he contacted the Prime Minister.
Jaya Rao answered, “General Raman, how are things on the border?” she asked in a tone that hinted at the feeling of dread that clenched her stomach like a squeezing fist.
“The Pakistani crowd has advanced upon the wall and are attempting to raise ladders to scale it. We are shooting the individuals that raise the ladders, but as they die more take their place. If we continue, the death toll will be enormous. If we do not, they will overwhelm our troops with their sheer numbers.”
Jaya had thought many times about what she would do in such a situation but had never been able to arrive at an answer that was advantageous to India. If the killing continued, the whole Muslim world, and the 200 million Muslims within India, would be inflamed against her country. If she let the border collapse, India and Pakistan would become one and 250 million mostly destitute Moslems would destabilize the nation. The vast numbers of the Hindu majority would not stand for such an outcome, and therefore the killing must continue. “Your orders stand General Raman, any attempt to breach the border must be met with force. Keep me updated every thirty minutes, or if things deteriorate further.” She finished the call and then uttered “Pakistani president direct line”.
“Maryam, the border situation is rapidly getting out of hand. Where are the Pakistani army contingents that you assured me would keep the crowds away from the border?” Jaya stated politely but with a tone of both anxiety and annoyance. The answer was not what she had expected.
“This is out of my hands now I have lost control of significant segments of the armed forces. It seems that this is part of a bigger plan to gain control of the country. We will see if I can survive as the leader of my country. There are already large crowds gathering outside the government buildings baying for my blood. It seems that it is impossible to stop the images of your army slaughtering my citizens at the wall, and as they spread the anger of the Pakistani people is boiling over.”
Jaya slumped in her chair, “I truly hope that you can regain control, otherwise I fear the consequences for our two countries. If things get desperate please treat me as a friend who can aid your escape.”
There was silence for a few moments, then “thankyou Jaya, we will see what the future holds” and Maryam ended the call. Jaya sat staring into space, before forcing herself back into action. She barked the orders at her assistant “Get together a meeting of the defense council in thirty minutes and connect me with the US and Chinese Presidents.”
As the killing continued at the wall, Rao sat down in front of the screen in the secure room and saw the faces of the two other leaders looking back at her. “Thank you for making time at such short notice” she said.
“I have been appraised of the destabilization within Pakistan, so I am assuming that this is about Operation Thanatos?” replied President Hufang.
“Yes, that is correct. I formally request that Operation Thanatos be activated. The Pakistani nuclear arsenal must be removed from the possibility of control by extremist elements …”
President Ashbridge interrupted, “Jaya, I understand your concerns but cannot agree to an activation of Thanatos until we can assess the nature of the coup. If it is a military takeover it may benefit us all by placing control into stronger hands. Thanatos is already on the highest state of readiness, able to go immediately once approved by the three of us.” After further remonstrations Jaya had to reluctantly agree, and the conversation moved onto the tactical issues involved.
North Island, New Zealand
“Mr Ganesh, your immediate attendance is required for a conference call in your suite”, the butler stated after he had entered the room. Mahavir stood up, gave his excuses to the others and left.
“I propose that we break early, to allow time for Mahavir to deal with his call”, Dmitry stated, and all agreed. Relief from the punishing schedule of briefings was more than welcome. Minutes later, Mahavir sat down in his suite and instructed the computer to connect him into the call. In front of him on the large screen were arrayed the members of the Indian Defense Council.
“Good, we have everyone.” stated the voice of Jaya Rao.
Pakistan Border with India, Near Lahore
Countless thousands of bodies lay strewn before the wall, with yet more of the living taking their place in the vain attempt to raise the wooden ladders up against it. More shots rang out and more of the living joined the dead. As the sun had risen in the sky and the temperature climbed upwards towards fifty degrees centigrade, the energy of the crowd had been dulled. Being without shade in such temperatures, under the blazing sun, was a deadly proposition. Numbers thinned as more and more of them accepted at least temporary defeat and retreated toward the shade of their encampments. They would be back once the heat of the day had waned. Across the world, billions viewed the slaughter on their screens. Within Pakistan, tens of millions had taken to the streets to call for vengeance. Things were rapidly spiraling out of control.
Abdul Bhat relaxed in the air-conditioned coolness of the private club in the capital, Islamabad, a glass of lemonade in his hand, content with the results of his handiwork. Everything was going to plan. The Prime Minister entered, and he stood up to greet her, “Prime Minister” he stated as he shook her hand strongly, holding her shoulder with his free hand. The change in status was palpable but unspoken, no longer would he be the one that was summoned by her office. “Please have a seat”, delivered more as a direction than a request. He continued, “the balance of power in the country has fundamentally changed, and the will of the people is behind that change. The formal handover of power can be a peaceful one. There will be a handover of power, whether it is peaceful or not is up to you. Given the anger of the people, and the readiness of the elites for change, I can only guarantee your safety if there is a peaceful transition.” The anger within Maryam escaped momentarily into her stare, but she quickly pulled it back within her.
“So, this is what we have come to, either I go compliantly, or you put me in my grave. I will need some time to think about this.”
Abdul leaned forward in his chair, “I understand Maryam, but with the urgency of the unfolding events you must decide by tomorrow morning.” After the prime minister had left, Abdul took time to finish his lemonade and then went upstairs for his next meeting.
He entered the secure room and dialed the code into the terminal on the table in front of him. The large video screen at the other end of the table sprang into life. “President Ashbridge, so good to see you,” he said while making himself comfortable, “I would have preferred to meet under better circumstances, but only our gods have control of such things.”
Ashbridge smiled sarcastically, “well it seemed that you did have some control over the Pakistani army units between Lahore and the border. Seems they went missing at a very inopportune time, or was it a very opportune time?”
Abdul replied, “the circumstances at the border are extremely regrettable, and underline the inability of the prime minister to properly control the country in the present, troublesome, circumstances. A strong hand is required to keep things under control, especially with the passions of the population so inflamed. With such a strong leader, and aid from India and yourselves to help us manage our internal issues, I am sure that stability can be restored. Something that I am sure is paramount to you and our neighbours given our nuclear arsenal.”
Ashbridge took a few moments to take the measure of the man that he was talking to. His advisors had told him that this was the right person to see Pakistan through its troubles, but he wanted to be sure of that himself. He also needed to wield a big stick to make sure that Bhat fully understood his inferior role in any arrangement. He was now ready to deliver the lesson in humility, “I have agreed with the Chinese that any launch of a nuclear weapon by Pakistan, even a tactical one, will result in your country’s immediate nuclear destruction. We have jointly targeted Pakistan with enough nuclear warheads to remove it as a functioning entity.” As Bhat took in the immensity of what he had just been told, Ashbridge turned to someone off screen and nodded. The screen in front of Bhat divided into two, with President Hufang joining President Ashbridge on it.
“I trust that you understand your role here?” Hufang said as he looked coldly out from the screen.
As the sun fell below the horizon and temperatures dropped a few merciful degrees, a sea of lights advanced toward the border wall. All afternoon the Indian soldiers had watched as the bodies of the dead were recovered and carried away; now would the piles of the dead be replenished? The Indian soldiers donned their night vision glasses and watched the crowds, and their wooden ladders, move toward them. The deadly cycle started again as the ladders were raised toward the wall. This time though, something was different. There was a scurry of activity near a certain point on the wall, and the soldiers found it difficult to make out what was going on in the failing light – even with their night vision equipment. Suddenly, a stream of people emerged through the crowd running rapidly toward the wall. As soon as each one reached the wall, they dropped a rucksack, lent down for a few seconds, then ran back away from the wall. Before the Indian troops could react, there were thirty packages, all connected together with electrical wires. The crowd around the area turned and ran.
“Bo..”, was all that one of the soldiers could get out before the explosion ripped his body apart. Like the tide, the crowd now streamed back toward the wall and through the gaping hole that had been torn through it.
“Focus your weapons on the breach and fire at will” General Raman barked down the handset to the commanders of the troops that lay 300 metres behind the wall. The Browning M2 heavy machine guns pointed toward the breach in the wall, and as the crowd streamed through, they were met with a hail of 1.5. ounce pieces of metal that hit them with five times the power of a standard rifle. The destruction of the first few waves of people streaming through the wall had the intended effect upon those behind. The sight and sound of human bodies being blown apart in front of them shocked them to a stunned standstill. There was now a huge mass of body parts between the living and the other side of the wall. Sporadic shooting of those that still raised ladders toward the wall continued throughout the night, but the will of the crowd had been broken and they slowly and sporadically retreated back to their encampments.
It had been near darkness when the slaughter at the breach had occurred, but much of it had been captured by those at the wall and by professional camera crews on the Pakistani side. General Raman had made sure that there would be no such public images from the Indian side of the wall. As the images and sounds of countless civilian bodies being torn apart by the merciless torrent of steel from the heavy machine guns found their way across Pakistan and the world, the Indian authorities quickly realized that although they had won a tactical victory they had also committed a major strategic error. It was no longer safe to be a Hindu in any Muslim country, and citizens across the region streamed into their embassies for protection. In Pakistan itself the emergency removal of Indian citizens was stepped up, the embassy itself was already uninhabited. It seemed as if the whole of the country had risen as one to demand revenge upon the Hindu infidels that would rip apart Muslim civilians with heavy machine gun fire. Bhat had not sanctioned the escalation at the wall, and he now realized that there were elements that had minds of their own. The situation was rapidly running beyond his ability to contain it.
North Island, New Zealand
“The Chinese and the Americans have to get control of those nuclear warheads immediately, before things in Pakistan career completely out of control” Mahavir stated as he focused on the screen in front of him.
“I just had a meeting with both Presidents and demanded that Thanatos be activated, unfortunately they only agreed to place on immediate readiness,” responded Prime Minister Rao. She continued, “For now you will stay where you are Mahavir, your mission is too important to interrupt. Unless things deteriorate further your deputy can look after your responsibilities. There have been limited riots and killings of Muslims, but nothing of a scale that we have not had to deal with before.”
A few minutes later Mahavir left the meeting, removed the headphones, and sat back from the screen.
I have to refocus on the discussions tomorrow, but first I need a drink.
He stood up and walked outside, strolling over to his friend’s door. A few seconds after he had struck his fist against the door it opened and Venkata beckoned him in.
“Time for the good scotch?” Venkata said, asking a question that he already knew the answer to. Once they were comfortably sat down, with full whiskey glasses in hand, the reality fully sank into Mahavir’s mind and an urgent task occurred to him.
“We need to make sure that Amala, Padma and the children extend their vacation in the Rhishikesh until this blows over. They were planning to return to the capital in a couple of days.” With that, he instructed his computer to connect him with his wife.
Dmitry relaxed in bed with Olga after the flurry of meetings to discuss the deteriorating situation in Pakistan. “We have agreed that as Russia is not directly involved in the Pakistani issue, I will remain here. Given the sizeable ethnic Muslim population that we have, it is better for us not to be seen as connected in any way with what is unfolding. This will also help our relationships with our Middle Eastern allies.”
Olga nodded in agreement. “The images are just horrific, what were the Indians thinking when they turned heavy machine guns on civilians. With even the poorest peasants having a camera on them these days nothing can be held secret for very long,” she said.
“I know” Dmitry agreed, “but they were between a rock and a hard place. With no Pakistani units to restrain the crowds, once the wall was breached, they either had to use force to stop the multitude from streaming across the border or accept the migration of many millions of Muslim Pakistani’s into India. Remember that there are another 190 million Muslim trapped inside Bangladesh that would very much like to move from their drowning country into India. There is no way that the Hindu majority would stand for even a small percentage of the 430 million Pakistani’s and Bangladeshi’s getting into their country.”
Olga shook her head, “what a bloody mess”, she sighed.
“Well, that was a good stress reliever,” Kelly smiled appreciatively, as she and Jim collapsed naked onto the bed.
“Between the negotiations, and the problems between India and Pakistan there is more than enough stress to go around,” replied Jim, ruefully.
“Then we will just have to keep up with the stress relief sessions” was Kelly’s riposte. She rolled over to her left and stated “show messages”. She frowned and reached for the television remote, “oh shit, this is getting out of hand really fast”. The television burst into life with a correspondent talking to camera, interspersed with images of Pakistani civilians being torn to pieces in a hail of heavy machine gunfire at the border wall. They both sat up, staring wordlessly at the images on the screen, struggling to fully comprehend what they were watching.
Chapter 13: July 21st
North Island, New Zealand (9am local time)
“I understand that it may be difficult to concentrate on the proceedings given the happenings of yesterday, especially for yourselves”, Dmitry stated as he looked across at Mahavir and Venkata.
“Thank you for your understanding Dmitry” came the answer from Mahavir, “the urgency of what we are dealing with here is too great to allow other events to delay our discussions. Let us continue.”
Dmitry nodded a few times, “Ok … this morning we will discuss the scale of both the immediate carbon emission reductions, and the requirements for future years at the global aggregate level. The afternoon has been set aside for discussions of how those reductions will be equitably shared between nations.”
Zhaohui interrupted, “let’s take a vote on your 25% reduction proposal, perhaps we can save ourselves a few hours.” Dmitry was taken aback by the proposal but saw no downside to putting it to a vote, and saw the nodding of heads around the room.
Then Guiseppe derailed the proposal, “I don’t think that we can make such a decision without linking it to the level of cuts in the years following. From what I have heard I feel that we should be aiming for a 50% reduction within the first 5 years. It stuns me that such words are coming out of my mouth, but it only seems sensible given the risks and consequences that we are facing. The worst thing that we could do is to have a big up front cut, then congratulate ourselves and relax a bit. We need to keep the pressure on through mandated significant yearly cuts.” A silent sigh went around the room at the thought of what Guiseppe was proposing, but his logic could not be faulted.
“Ok then”, Dmitry exclaimed as Zhaohui surrendered to Guiseppe’s proposal, “let’s discuss the possibility of a 50% cut and how that would be achieved over a 5 year period!”
Islamabad, Pakistan (6.40am local time / 1.40pm in New Zealand)
Abdul forced himself awake as he heard the call of his mobile, reaching out he grasped it and pulled it to his ear.
“Abdul?” an impatient voice entered his head, “yes this is Abdul”. The voice continued, “The extremists are following their own plans, you are not safe. Get out of there and make your way to the prime minister’s residence. We need to work with the prime minister to regain control as quickly as possible, before this gets out of hand. There are some reports that we have lost control of a nuclear armed Nasr-2 missile battery.”
Abdul leapt out of the chair that he had fallen asleep in after the meetings that had stretched through the night where he had tried to regain control of what he had started, his apprehension rising as the thought of the extremists in charge of nuclear missiles bounced around his head. He quickly changed his clothes and made himself somewhat presentable before making his way downstairs.
“Get my car” he barked at his assistant as he rushed down the stairs and ordered his computer to call the Prime Minister’s office. “This is Abdul Bhat, I need to speak immediately to the prime minister”.
“Impatient to get on with things?” replied an annoyed Maryam.
“Things have changed, I am coming over immediately so we can discuss face to face.” With that, he made his way into the darkness outside and jumped into the awaiting Mercedes. The car crawled through the crowds in the still dark streets of the capital and it took half an hour to cover the small distance to the prime minister’s residence. He had thought about walking, but judged that to be a greater risk than staying within the bulletproof Mercedes. Once he arrived, he was soon sitting opposite the Prime Minister.
“We thought that we could control and manipulate the extremists for our own ends, but it seems as if they have out-witted us. The explosion at the wall was not part of the plan, and it now looks as if parts of the military have fallen under their control. One of the tactical nuclear batteries may be among them. There may also be plans to use some military units to eliminate both of us. We need to pool resources and information to regain control before they escalate beyond the point of no return.” With that Abdul paused, waiting for a reply form Maryam.
She glared at him in silence, then “so, we will have to clean up the bloody mess that you have started. We have full control of the long-range nuclear missiles, but I have been informed that we are missing a warhead. You don’t happen to know where that may be Abdul?” He shook his head forlornly, while the full realization of how he had been played by the extremists became apparent to him.
New Delhi, India (8.15am local time / 2.45pm in New Zealand)
The nondescript truck sat inside the garage awaiting its’ fate. Inside sat the nuclear warhead; with over twenty times the power of that which had destroyed Hiroshima. Around the building life went on as normal in the middle of the capital of India.
Pakistan Border with India, Near Lahore (8am local time / 3pm in New Zealand)
General Raman walked along the wall, surveying the empty expanse in front him illuminated by the rising sun.
“Please let the day continue this way,” he thought to himself. He had ordered that the bodies in the breached area of the wall be covered against the rising sun, and the myriad of cameras pointed toward the wall. Negotiating throughout the night, he had also arranged for a Pakistani religious delegation to gather the bodies – overseen closely by the Indian army. “Any games and there will be another bloodbath” he had warned the Pakistani representatives. It was comforting to him that sections of the Pakistani army had returned to the area to help maintain control over the crowds, and that he had been able to make contact with his Pakistani military counterparts. Dialogue was good; more talking was much better than more dying.
Under the cover of trees about twenty kilometers away, sat a large squat vehicle with four thin tubes on its back. Inside its cabin sat the crew of four, somberly but angrily readying themselves for what they understood would be their last actions.
“The Hindu heathens must pay for the desecration of Muslim bodies we must cleanse the Earth to allow the purity of Islam to flourish upon it. Praise be to God!” stated what seemed to be the leader the group.
“Praise be to god” was the muted response of his fellows. After a few minutes the thin tubes rose into the air and the four missiles within began their journey.
General Raman’s eyes widened as he spun around, responding to the wailing of the warning sirens. Seconds later the anti-missile batteries a few kilometres away launched their loads into the air. He looked up to follow the streaks of smoke upwards, praying that they would meet their targets. As the seconds ticked by, thousands of eyes peered up into the sky searching for even a hint of an explosion. After what seemed to be an eternity, but was only just more than a minute, an explosion could be faintly seen. Twenty seconds later, and another one seemed to be there. Then silence. “Order the troops to take cover and to keep their eyes closed,” barked Raman to his orderly as he followed his own instructions. After another seeming eternity, streaks of intense light breached his eyelids. He counted:
One
A wave of heat added to the warmth of the day that surrounded him.
Two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight
The roar of two explosions entered his ears, followed by the blast wave.
About two kilometers away, they targeted the massed troops behind us.
As he stood up, he heard the cries of the machine gunners that were stationed behind the wall. The extra 300 meters had saved the troops on the wall, but the gunners had been caught by the wave of heat from the fireball. Raman looked back at the inferno of human bodies, buildings and vehicles behind him as two mushroom clouds rose in front of him into the sky.
Islamabad, Pakistan (8.20am local time / 3.20pm in New Zealand)
Maryam strode into the briefing room and sat down at the table, surrounded by her senior military and political leadership.
“Is it true?” she demanded from the defence minister.
The response was what she had most feared, “It does seem that there was a launch of four Nasr battlefield nuclear weapons at the Indian positions near Waghal. From what we can ascertain two missiles made it through and detonated at a height of 400 meters, about 2 kilometers behind the border. They hit an area relatively densely packed with Indian troops, resulting in many casualties. We have destroyed the launch vehicle and are confirming the location of all other Nasr batteries, with the intention to destroy them immediately if they attempt a launch.”
The prime minister snapped back, “what about the larger nuclear arsenal?”
The defence minister paused before answering, “I understand that this is very regrettable prime minister, but I can assure you that we do have full control over the rest of the nuclear arsenal …”, as his eyes met hers he stopped.
“Just like you assured me yesterday? What about the warhead that does not seem to be accounted for? When were you going to tell me about that?”
He sat stunned for a moment, “I was not informed of this prime minister!”
Maryam leaned back in her chair and scanned the uniformed men around her before returning to the deflated defence minister “it seems that there is quite a lot that our generals have not been telling you about” she said condescendingly. “From now on you will work hand in hand with Abdul Bhat, I hope to god that between the two of you we can regain control before the Indians trigger all out war. I have to go speak with Jaya Rao now, to see if I can buy us some time to settle things down.” With that, she left the others around the table in a stunned silence. A few moments later, Abdul entered.
After the short walk to the secure communications room, Maryam entered and sat down in front of the large screen. After she had waved her assistant from the room, she pressed a button on the console in front of her and Jaya Rao appeared on the screen.
“Jaya, please accept my deepest apologies for what has happened, and thank you for allowing us to speak before things get out of hand.”
The cold expression on Jaya’s face did not change, “things are already out of control Maryam. I already have crowds in the streets calling for me to destroy Pakistan. You must relinquish control of your nuclear arsenal to the U.S.A. and China, and Bhat must be publicly executed for fomenting this crisis. With those actions, I may have a chance of keeping things from escalating further.” Maryam was not surprised at Jaya’s demands, but could not just accede to surrender in this way. In the short term, she also needed Bhat.
“My government, and with it any chance of stability in Pakistan, is finished if I surrender in the way that you demand. Then you will have a much greater problem than a few small short-range nuclear missiles to worry about!” she shot back. Jaya glared back, but controlled her response. She knew that Maryam was correct.
“Then we need to save face for you, the takeover of the nuclear arsenal needs to be seen as an aggressive move by China and the U.S.A. Your government will of course facilitate the movement of their personnel into Pakistan and onwards toward their targets, while complaining loudly about the incursion and threats from the two powers. You can also arrange for some ‘extremist’ to kill Bhat when he has outlived his usefulness. His fellow plotters must also be dealt with.” Maryam nodded in agreement.
“I will have no problem dealing with the scum who plotted against me and brought us to this dangerous place. My government still has full control of the air force and long-range nuclear arsenal sites; the way will be opened for the Chinese and American forces. I propose that we meet every two hours, to make sure that there are no dangerous misunderstandings.”
Jaya nodded in agreement, “let’s hope that we can keep things under control before many millions of our citizens die needlessly. Good luck Maryam.” Jaya disappeared from the screen and Maryam was at last alone for a few minutes. She thought about the missing nuclear warhead and her decision not to tell Jaya Rao.
North Island, New Zealand (3.20pm local time)
Mahavir’s ear vibrated, denoting an urgent message. “Open” he stated quietly and the text appeared in front of him. As he read it his eyes opened wider, even he could not hide his response. He looked up and was met with questioning faces around him. “We will have to suspend the meeting, there is a matter that requires immediate attention”, he stated, and then he looked directly at Chang, “I am sure that you will be getting contacted shortly.” After making eye contact with Venkata and shaking his head in concern, he left the room. Then it was the turn of Chang’s ear to vibrate, then Dmitry’s, then Kelly’s. After a few minutes only the scientists were left in the room; deeply concerned, but unaware of the gravity of the happenings at the Pakistan-India border.
Washington, D.C., United States (11.20pm local time / 3.20pm in New Zealand)
The evening had been exhausting, the usual hours of appearing jolly, and happy, to shake the hands of seemingly endless numbers of rich, self-important, boring people. Thankfully, it was over and Ashbridge lay naked under the sheets with his wife, something that had not happened for far too long. Their tiredness was more than offset by the wanting that they felt for each other’s bodies. Ashbridge kissed and caressed her as he moved his body over hers.
They were an unlikely couple. He was twenty years her senior and a career military man, very different to the progressive academic policy advisor that she was. His failed marriage and adult children were things that she had told her friends that she would never accept in a man, “a fucking divorcee with kids that could be my brothers and sisters, are you serious?” she had protested when they had raised the possibility. A deep intellect and his habit of not taking himself too seriously, at least in her presence, had whittled down her resistance. The thoughtful gifts and handwritten romantic notes had helped too, old-fashioned, but kind of nice. Who knew a hard-ass military guy could write so beautifully?
Then, there are just sometimes when a woman needs a good, hard, strong man to deal with her needs. That night in Chicago he had certainly fit the bill and proved that he knew how to read what a woman wanted. For him, it had been an immediate attraction to Samantha only slightly dimmed by her evasiveness. He wanted what he wanted and was used to getting it. She both enticed and infuriated him at the same time.
The fucking friend zone? He had thought unbelievably as she had politely but firmly pushed back on his advances. Women had always had a reaction to him, either good or bad, but never “let’s be friends”. He started to be concerned, was he losing it in his old age, was this what a mid-life crisis felt like? Then Chicago, he knew that look; the hungry look. “With life you may only get one chance, so take it”, his father had beaten into him from an early age. He took it.
Ashbridge froze, was that a knock on the door he had just heard? Then there it was again.
“I am really sorry to disturb you sir, but we have an emergency situation at hand that requires your immediate attention” came the voice form behind the door.
Samantha looked back at him with annoyed disbelief, “you better go serve your country then” was her strained directive to him.
“I’m …” was all he could utter, as he lifted himself from the bed. “I will be there shortly”, he answered to the voice at the door as he started to get dressed. Once clothed, he kissed his still unhappy wife goodbye and exited. “What is so urgent” he demanded of the aide outside the door.
“There has been a tactical nuclear strike on India by Pakistan Mr. President, I need to get you to the briefing room as quickly as possible.” Ashbridge’s brain spun as he walked along the corridor.
What the fuck next?
Minutes later he was greeted with “Mr. President” as the security apparatus of the United States stood around the table in front of him.
Beijing, China (2pm local time / 6pm in New Zealand)
“So, Thanatos seems to be the correct move?” Hufang asked as he looked toward the screen in front of him.
“Yes”, replied Chang as he sat in his suite a few thousand miles away in New Zealand, “it both removes the threat of a nuclear attack by Pakistan and by not including the Indians does not add to the antagonism toward them from Pakistan, and the Muslim world in general. The attack seems to have created a window of opportunity for us, as it has cooled the passions of the crowds and created a level of sympathy internationally for the Indians.”
Hufang nodded, “So the Pakistani population will hate us and the Americans, but won’t increase their hatred for India. This will also be a very important geo-political statement, with the U.S. accepting China as an equal after all their attempts to keep us down over the years. It is the right option for China. Thank you Chang, as we agreed your strategic mission in New Zealand is too important to interrupt even with this crisis. Better for you to stay there and complete the negotiations. Good luck.” Chang was both disappointed to not be in the thick of the action, and pleased to be able to complete the important negotiations. This was good for his position within the party, not just a military man but also now a negotiator. “Thank you, and let us hope that this brings the crisis to an end.” Hufang’s face disappeared and Chang reclined in his seat contemplating the ever more complicated world that China had to deal with.
What next?
After a few minutes contemplating that question he arose and set off for the main lodge, to rejoin the discussions.
Washington, D.C., United States (2.15am local time / 6.15pm in New Zealand)
A weary Ashbridge surveyed the room, the myriad of different possible scenarios that he had been briefed on over the past hour swimming past each other in his head. “So, the least worst option open to us is Thanatos it seems to me” was his conclusive statement to the room “the Indian government will be able to restrain its population from nuclear vengeance, the Pakistani’s will hate us and the Chinese quite a lot but won’t hate the Indians any more, and the Chinese won’t feel threatened by a unilateral U.S. action against their ally. Oh, and fundamentalist Muslims everywhere may hate us, but what’s new? Anyone got a better plan of action?” A mixture of rueful acceptance and worried resignation surrounded him. He was right; this was the least worst option. There were no good ones available. Much could go wrong in the unpredictable tinderbox that was currently Pakistan.
North Island, New Zealand (10pm local time)
“So, we have agreement on a cut of 25% in emissions in the first year, and 8% per year for four years after that to achieve an overall reduction of approximately 50%. It still feels a bit crazy to me, but that is what the data is telling us! With the assumption of tactical geo-engineering, this may give us a chance of forestalling any sudden climatic jumps. Now for the hard work, how do we share the cuts between countries?” stated Dmitry. “First though, a good nights sleep for our weary souls. Then we continue at 8am sharp tomorrow morning, with hopefully no new disasters to interrupt our sleep!” Everyone around the room agreed, or perhaps they just did not have the energy left to disagree.
Above the Afghanistan / Pakistan border (7pm local time / 2am in New Zealand)
“Cleared for entry” said the co-pilot, as the U.S. army helicopter closed in on the border as the sun started to complete its daily journey toward the horizon behind them. Five others followed close behind as they traversed the mountains. Along the long border, other flocks of helicopters entered into Pakistan on their way to take control of the nuclear arsenal. On the other side of the country, Chinese helicopters entered from their secret staging posts in India. Their job was to secure the areas where the warheads resided, together with the landing areas for the planes carrying the main forces. Behind them, troops and equipment were being loaded onto planes in Afghanistan and China. Ready to take to the air once the forward troops had done their job.