End of the Beginning: Chapter 14 & 15
Chapter 14: July 22nd
Beijing, China (5am local time / 9am in New Zealand)
Xiao Hufang sat in the incident room with his military and national security leadership, gazing at the screens in front of them as reports of the night’s operations continued to flood in. Things had progressed extremely well, with only minor incidents for the U.S. and Chinese forces. All of the longer-range warhead storage areas had been secured, and the warheads were in the process of being transferred out of the country. The Pakistan military had kept its word and had destroyed a number of tactical weapons launchers that had not complied with requests to return to base. Those that returned were immediately transferred to US/Chinese control and the process of transferring the warheads had begun. Perhaps the worst had been averted ….
North Island, New Zealand (11:30am local time)
“The devil is in the details” the saying goes, and that devil had invaded the discussions under the main lodge. Agreeing on a global plan to reduce emissions was one thing, agreeing how to share them out between countries was a completely different one. The sheen of cooperation had been replaced with one of angst and antagonism, with India representing the relatively poor of the Earth against the rich that had used up the carbon budget for their own benefit. The reality that energy equals wealth and wealth equals power was the elephant that peered down at everyone from the middle of the table. Having already accepted the reality of a multi-polar world, after the quarter-century of hubris after the collapse of the U.S.S.R., the United States would now have to accept even greater levels of relative decline. The Chinese had got ahead of them in reducing fossil-fuel dependence and India, with its population of 1.4 billion, was demanding the right to lesser emission cuts to support its continued industrialization.
“Our final proposal is that India will cut emissions by 4% per year, but that has to be dependent upon the previously offered levels of financial and technical support for clean energy projects from the United States and China. Dependent upon an absolute commitment to a permanently nuclear-free Pakistan” Venkata stated quietly but defiantly.
“We can accept that, as long as you agree to the required levels of geo-engineering to get global temperatures reduced by 1 degree centigrade. You will have commitments of food aid if the monsoon is negatively impacted”, Kelly replied.
“The same goes for China” Xiaohui added. The others nodded in agreement. Asking a country that had still not connected millions of its population to electricity to make the same cuts as those where such things were an assumption of everyday life was never going to be part of the solution.
“I think that we may have agreement” Venkata said in a conciliatory tone “but I will have to validate with my colleague and our Prime Minister first.”
With that Dmitry interjected, “perhaps then best to have an early break and come back in the afternoon after Venkata has been able to complete the required discussions. Let’s meet back at 2pm. As long as we have agreement on this issue we can move on to how we deal with the countries not represented at this table.” Everyone was happy to take a break from the grueling morning session.
New Delhi, India (7.30am local time / 2pm in New Zealand)
The sun lit up the peaks of the mountains as the red sky to the east announced the arrival of a new day. The warhead sat patiently in the garage, awaiting its’ time to make history.
Islamabad, Pakistan (7:30am local time / 2.30pm in New Zealand)
Maryam felt the searing heat on her face as she stepped outside, on her way to the limousine. It had been a long night and it was a relief to escape the parliamentary offices. She looked across at Abdul, thinking about the dizzying turn of events of the past few days. He had redeemed himself significantly through the night as he worked tirelessly to help her regain control of the situation. His very success had sealed his fate though, and given his previous attempts to destroy her she felt little sorrow at his impending destruction. She relaxed as she felt strong arms grasp her body and pull her back and downwards, miraculously allowing the assassins bullets to miss her and end their journey in Abdul’s body. She was thrust into the back of the car, and then jerked back against the seat as it accelerated away.
All in a day’s work
She smiled ruefully to herself. Across Pakistan, Abdul’s allies and the extremist splinter groups were meeting a similar fate. Unlike them, he would go down as a hero that had helped the government regain control but was tragically killed by an extremist assassin.
North Island, New Zealand (5pm local time)
Olga surveyed the group around her, she thought that they looked more like a group of bedraggled travelers who had stayed too long in an airport lounge, rather than the best and brightest representative of their countries. That was apart from Jim and Kelly, who had more of a tired but contented look.
What’s their secret? she thought as she smiled to herself knowingly. It looked like the group was coming to a final agreement, which she thought to be a minor miracle given the parties involved and the incredible events that were surrounding them. Mahavir was now impatient to get home, both to take the lead in keeping the lid on the civil unrest within India and to see his family again. The events of the past few days had reminded him of the blessing that they were, and how easily that blessing could be lost. Jim sipped his fifth cup of coffee; the combination of jet lag and sleep deprivation was getting to him. In the past few years his life had taken many unexpected turns, perhaps this new one with Kelly was the final exit from the dark hole that had engulfed him after his wife’s death? His attention returned to the meeting as the clicking of Dmitry’s keyboard stopped.
“Ok, if everyone can look at the screen I will read through the current high-level terms of the agreement” Dmitry said as he looked around the room for agreement. “Firstly, the USA, EU, China and Russia agree to an immediate cut of 25% in CO2 emissions, plus 8% per year for the following four years. Other rich countries, such as Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, will also be expected to comply. India, together with the rest of the world where incomes exceed $2000 per person, will be expected to cut emissions by 4% per year for the five-year period. Countries with incomes below $2000 per person will be exempted. How each country implements these changes will be up to them. All of these changes will include imports and exports, so as not allow any country to shift emissions to another. For example, moving heavy industrial production to a country with incomes below $2000 per person. Have I missed anything?”
Venkata piped up, “The fund and technology transfers to aid the poorer countries in moving to low emission technologies.”
Dmitry responded “Ah, yes. Thank you Venkata. The richer countries will commit 1% of economic output to a fund to aid the movement to low-emission technologies in the poorer countries and will commit to open transfer of the required technologies.”
Mahavir frowned, “In the final text we will of course remove the “richer” and “poorer” type wording with something more politically palatable I assume?”
Dmitry smiled “Of course, we will have our best political correctness experts work on the text to make sure that it cannot be deemed to be offensive to anyone in any way. Now, are we good?” He acknowledged the nodding of heads around the table. “Excellent, now onto the second section. The rich countries will fund three geo-engineering activities; sulfate aerosol diffusion in the atmosphere to reduce temperatures by 1 degree centigrade, regional Arctic summer cloud brightening and winter cloud reduction, and enhanced rock weathering to reduce carbon dioxide levels by 10ppm per decade and combat ocean acidification. The rock weathering will be carried out in India, East Africa and Brazil – requiring the agreement of those countries. There will be a commitment of emergency food aid, and a review of the aerosol diffusion activities if the Monsoon is severely affected.”
“Let’s just understand the economic impacts of what we are proposing,” Guiseppe proffered as he leaned forward in his chair, resting his elbows on the table and clasping his hands next to his chin “even if we have some miraculous increases in energy and carbon efficiency we are still talking about precipitating an economic depression in the rich countries. The drop in economic output will be on the scale of the 1930’s Great Depression, and there will be no recovery as we continue the cuts year after year on the way to a zero carbon, or very low carbon economy. A big chunk of the output that is left will have to be redirected to emergency projects for renewable energy, and energy efficiency, which will provide future pay-offs but will take up resources in the present. In addition, at least 5% of the remaining output will go towards the geo-engineering activities plus some more in aid for the less-rich countries and possible food aid if the monsoon is impacted. The wealth impacts will be even greater, with many of the major energy and financial corporations most probably going bankrupt, plus most of the consumer economy will have to be shut down. The knock-on effects on government revenues, pension funds, insurance companies etc. will also be colossal. The wartime mobilizations for World War 2 would be dwarfed by what we are considering.”
Zhaohui replied, “This is the simple reflection of the size of the hole that we have dug ourselves into. We do not have any choice but to attempt such huge changes in a very short amount of time, the only other option is disastrous climate change that will have even greater impacts. Our role here is to agree on what is realistically required to have a good chance of forestalling such disaster, not to assess the politics of implementing the required changes. What we are doing here is but one step of the many that will be required.”
Dmitry jumped on chance that Xaohui had provided to escape the rabbit hole that Guiseppe had opened up, “Xaohui has a great point; we are not here to discuss the economic and social impacts of the required emission cuts and other changes. We are here to agree on what is needed for humanity to steer clear of a probable climate catastrophe. Once we have agreed that, the politicians and economists can work out how to implement the changes and deal with the economic and social consequences.”
Guiseppe relented, “Ok, ok, I just wanted us to fully comprehend that this is not some purely technical discussion that we are having here.”
Olga laughed, “Guiseppe, I think we all understand the scale of the changes required, unfortunately we also understand that there is no better option. I wish there were.” She motioned to Dmitry to take put it to a vote.
“Anyone disagree with what is proposed?” he asked. With a sad resignation the group had come to agreement.
Islamabad, Pakistan (2pm local time / 7pm in New Zealand)
The whirling of the helicopter’s rotors could do nothing to lessen the wall of heat that hit Maryam as she ran across to the open helicopter door, surrounded by her security guards. She jumped in, sat down in the middle chair and was rapidly strapped in as the helicopter quickly rose into the air and headed of on its journey. She knew that there were risks travelling outside the capital before order and control had been fully restored, but she knew that the regaining of that control would be made easier through face-to-face meetings with the country’s leaders. She must show that she was both alive, and not cowering in the capital. Her body was suddenly thrown sideways and hard against the seat as the helicopter banked hard to the left. The sound of impatient alarms bounced around the cabin, as she watched the ground rushing towards her. Out of the corner of her eye she saw a smoke trail heading towards the helicopter. It was the last thing that she would see.
North Island, New Zealand (7pm local time)
The gas heaters surrounding the table kept the chill air away as the sun had left the skies in its journey westwards over an hour ago. The darkness fully enveloped the surroundings, with only the dim table lights and the flames of the gas heaters offering respite. The quiet roar of the heaters provided the background music of the discussions across the table.
“I think that a quote from Winston Churchill is very appropriate,” Chang said, breaking a silence that had lingered, “after many defeats in the first years of World War Two the British managed to have a small victory – beating the German army in North Africa. To get across to his countrymen how much work was still left he stated that they were not even at the beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning. There have been decades of defeats in the war on climate change, from outright denial to superficial actions driven by political expediency. I feel that we are at last starting the process of global acceptance of the scale of change that is needed for our societies to survive. We are only at the end of the beginning of the process of acceptance; the next steps will be much harder as that acceptance has to gain ground across the whole of society. The assumption has been that growth will continue, and that assumption has now been proven wrong. Our economies, politics and beliefs have been molded in an environment of never-ending growth; to accept that controlled contraction is the new reality will be incredibly disruptive and threatening to most. In China, the party made a deal with the people ‘we will make you richer and you will let us rule’. As long as the party delivered it kept its legitimacy and was not threatened. The party bureaucracy did manage to keep control and kept its ability to discipline the rich, with an unbreakable union between the party and the armed forces. Even with that, it will still be very difficult for China to navigate peacefully through the period ahead of us and maintain the support of the people. When I look at the United States though, I see that the Communist Party has a much easier job ahead of it than does the U.S. leadership. Your President Ashbridge will have to exceed the great accomplishments that he has already managed in taming the renegades in the elite ranks. Perhaps he should start wearing body armour and not travel in any open topped cars, together with executing a few ‘bourgeois scum’ to instill some fear and discipline?”
Kelly laughed mockingly, “I always enjoy the hypocrisy of a rich man talking about ‘bourgeois scum’; perhaps he should look in the mirror a bit more before making such comments. How big is your Swiss bank account, or should I say accounts?”
Chang looked at Kelly, as if surveying a young child that is yet to gain from the experiences of life, “It must be a joy to be both cradled in such wealth, naiveté and self-righteousness. Unfortunately, my parents were not millionaires and my trajectory in life was not effortlessly upward in the richest society on Earth. I have been dealt many humbling blows that have served as great teachers, as well as reminding me of my fallibility. I fear those that have never failed, because they have never been forced to realize their own limitations. Yes, I have become a rich man by serving my country. It is still though a country that I will sacrifice for. I am Chinese first, and a rich man second. To become rich a country needs those that have the capacity to lead and to build and must reward them for their struggles. The problem is with those that live off the productive capacities of the nation, but do not contribute to it. The rent-seekers: the financiers, property-speculators, and manipulators. The kinds of people that would hold back food in a warehouse while those outside starve, so that they can get a better price. Those that would happily undermine their own country; just to increase their own wealth and power. We have such ‘bourgeois scum’ in China, but the state bureaucracy is more powerful than they are. I fear that such a large segment of your elites consists of ‘bourgeois scum’ that your true leaders may be unable to overcome their resistance.”
Kelly smiled back at Chang, a smile that displayed an annoyed respect, “Putting aside your somewhat self-serving redefinition of ‘bourgeois scum’, I accept that you do have some valid points. There are unfortunately many in the elite who consider that they have a right to live off society, expect to be bailed out of their mistakes, and to not have to contribute. The early-twenties crash removed some of the parasites, and disciplined many others, but there are still far too many of them. They will have to be reminded that without social stability they could easily end up in the same place as the French aristocracy after the revolution.”
Before she could continue, Venkata interrupted “Off with their heads, that will certainly instill a bit of discipline and provide a bit of enjoyable viewing for the masses! Perhaps a prominent banker, a big oil-company executive and the head of one of those lying think-tanks would make a good trio to send the right message. Oh, and let’s not forget the head of one of those public relations firms that have sold their souls for a few pieces of silver. The modern embodiment of Judas.”
Jim nodded his head in agreement, remembering the bouts of exasperation and depression that he had suffered over the years in the face of such blatant lies and disinformation from the paid mouthpieces of the powerful that resisted the need for action. He caught Thomas’s eye, and their shared experiences were communicated without words.
It was time for Guiseppe to add his thoughts, “It is the brilliance of a great leader to be able to construct the alliances necessary for change. He may have to deal with those that he truly despises but must manage to keep such feelings from coming out. The keeping of ‘face’ is so important to such alliances, men can put up with some loss of status as long as they are not publicly diminished. Once the need for a given alliance is over, the leader may turn on some of his supposed allies, but he has to be careful not to destroy the possibility of later alliances with others. The Chinese have written extensively about such things, as of course has my own country’s Machiavelli. It is surely time for such skills to come to the fore, and perhaps for the scientists among us to read fewer academic papers and a lot more Sun Tzu and Machiavelli?”
Jim could not stop himself, “but even just the thought of rough justice for a few of those that have consciously delayed what must be done for their own short-term benefit is quite pleasurable in a dark vindictive kind of way”, he uttered as he smiled to himself.
“They say that revenge is best served cold,” Zhaohui countered, “how satisfying to lull them into feeling safe while using them to do what is necessary, knowing that you will seek revenge later at your own convenience.” Even Dmitry was impressed by the darkness in her voice and the intensity of her eyes.
I would be so proud to have such a sister
For Kelly, it was like observing an older and wiser version of herself. It was now Mahavir’s turn to join the conversation, “That is exactly what is needed. In the short-term there will need to be many compromises to be able to build the required alliance for change, which may include many strange bedfellows. As time passes relative positions of power change, and interests may diverge, especially in the rapidly changing economic and social environment that we will face. Only those with the required quiet cunning, flexibility, and readiness to act when required will be able to successfully lead us forward.”
This was too much for Thomas, “Seems like you are arguing for the modern-day Machiavelli, or perhaps a Philosopher-King, to lead us all to the light while overcoming the powers of darkness. Would make for a great movie script. No place for democracy, or a community coming together to do the right thing.”
Mahavir sighed, “I wish that I could share your positive vision Thomas, but I have seen too much of those powers of darkness to assume that they can be overcome simply by democracy and the power of community. They will fight to keep their power and wealth, trying to delay the inevitable and when forced to accept, pass on the sacrifices to the weak as much as possible. The exercise of power, even in the service of good, can be a dirty business.”
As the gas heaters roared quietly in the background, the debate continued late into the night until exhaustion set in and forced everyone to bed. It was always difficult to leave a conversation with such a diverse, skilled and experienced group. Deep down, they all knew that these few days in New Zealand would be one of the highlights of their lives and that they would greatly miss this place. Tomorrow would be the start of their journeys back to reality.
Chapter 15: July 24th
Near New Delhi, India (6pm local time)
“Home at last” Mahavir said as the seatbelt lights lit up and the captain advised of the descent into New Delhi airport.
“I feel like I could sleep for a week” mumbled Venkata, slumped in his chair under a blanket keeping his eyes closed against the cabin lighting. He instinctively squeezed his eyelids tighter and jolted himself upright as an intense whiteness illuminated the inside of his left eye. After covering his face with his hands, he carefully he carefully opened his eyes to see shards of incredibly brilliant light streaming through the uncovered windows on the other side of the plane. People next to those windows seemed to be feeling intense pain from the light as they struggled to cover their eyes and close the window covers. Before he could make sense of what was happening, he felt his body pressed sideways and into his chair as the plane lurched violently to the right. He looked out of his window to see the ground rapidly rotating beneath him as face masks fell from above his head and the brilliant light receded from the cabin. He turned his head towards the sound of a scream to see one of the cabin crew airborne for an instant before she crashed into the side of a chair and limply dropped to the floor. Mahavir turned toward him, with a look of fear spreading across his usually calm face. As the plane continued to turn, thoughts started bouncing around his head as he tried to make sense of what was happening, while trying to control the sense of panic that was rising from within. In an instant the realization hit him. How could it be? he asked himself The Americans and Chinese got all their warheads.
He felt his body rise in the chair, then pushed back again into it, as the plane levelled out. His mind leapt to his wife and children and relief spread across him as he remembered that they were still in the mountains, far enough away from the capital to be safe.
“That was close” he heard Mahavir utter, then he felt a shudder ripple through the plane, and he became weightless before being flung back hard against the seat. Pinned against it he realized that he was falling toward the earth. Overwhelmed, he prayed that he would see his family again. He saw something flying toward him and managed to fling his hand up to deflect it. The pain jolted him into awareness of his vulnerability, and he strained to bend his body downwards while trying to protect himself with his hands and arms. Then, as suddenly as it had started the rush toward the earth ended as the plane pulled itself out of the dive and he slumped back into the seat.
Patna, Eastern India (6.10pm local time)
The Indian Prime Minister felt the warmth on her lips as she sipped tea on the upper floor of the Old Secretariat building. The building bore the arrogance and grandiosity of the British Raj, with its massive clock tower standing tall as if to survey the magnificence of British rule. She would have loved to walk through the open doors in front of her onto the verandah beyond, but that would be too dangerous in the present circumstances. Instead, she felt the remnants of the breeze that ruffled the light curtains as they collapsed exhausted at her feet. The sky to the westward was filled with intensifying variations of red and orange as the daylight drew to a close.
At least the weather tomorrow should be good
It would have been better to be completely alone with her thoughts, but of course now she could never be without her bodyguards at easy reach. They were very good at being unobtrusive though; sometimes they could even blend in as if they were not there.
This was a welcome break from the many days of frenetic activity that had allowed her to collect her thoughts and think more strategically about her next steps. First up was getting back to Delhi and showing that she was fully in command and not running away to some province far away from Pakistan. With the greatest level of risk now passed, she needed to show the Indian population that she was strong and fearless. It was a shame that she had to have Maryam killed, but only the head of the Pakistani leader was enough to hold the Indian dogs of war at bay. Command would pass to safe elements in the Pakistani military that understood where their futures lay, and stability could slowly be returned. She was shaken out of her thoughts as the footsteps of her assistant approached. There was something urgent, anxious, about those footsteps …
Twenty minutes later she was seated in the operations room seemingly oblivious to the raised voices that surrounded her. A deep sadness rested at the pit of her stomach as the reality of what she must do seeped through her body. Her images of herself as the crusading leader that would pull India kicking and screaming into a new existence, to be celebrated for her courage and audacity, faded away. Forever, she would be remembered as the one who incinerated millions. Her consciousness came back to the room, as her fist came down roughly on the table in front of her. The voices around her faded away, leaving silence. She took a moment to look around the room before speaking.
With a heavy and considered voice she addressed them, “This is not a place where any of us would have wanted to find ourselves, but we cannot escape from our responsibility to act in the best interests of India. After the first nuclear attacks we were able to appease the wrath of our fellow citizens without having to retaliate in kind. This attack is totally different; without immediate and major retaliation things may rapidly spiral out of our control. Our actions must be on a scale to quiet those that would foster internal strife and send a message to those that seek to attack our nation. At the same time, we must be careful not to needlessly antagonize other countries. Killing countless foreign dignitaries in Islamabad or disrupting China’s New Silk Road supply routes through Pakistan, would be extremely counterproductive. The destruction of Lahore makes the most sense; it will leave the Pakistani government, military and financial elites functioning. We need a compliant state, not a failed one, on our borders. An attack on Lahore will also have the least impact on foreign interests. It will also be symbolic; being the city closest to New Delhi and close to the border missile attacks. Lahore it is. Mine is the final word, and I accept that responsibility”
After providing the authorization and codes to the Strategic Missile command, she returned her attention to the room. “In my statement to the nation I will state that we are retaliating against the state of Pakistan, not against Muslims. That we are the government of all of Indians, and attacks on Indians of any faith will be met with the full force of the state. It is imperative that my statements are reflected in the actions of all parts of the government, including local governments. Any deviation must be treated as treasonable in the current circumstances and dealt with accordingly. You all understand me?” She looked from person to person, making firm eye contact to confirm, and force, compliance.
Somewhere in Northern India (6.57pm local time)
The corporal engaged the clutch, put the launch vehicle in gear and slowly moved it out of the tunnel. The team had completed the long pre-launch checklist and was now ready to unleash the missile upon Pakistan. The long, muscular, vehicle rolled out into the rapidly fading light. The truck came to a halt and the corporal engaged the stabilizers.
After a few seconds he informed the others, “stabilizers in place.” With that, the man sitting behind him typed a command into his computer screen and the sound of the large tube on the back of the truck being raised filled the cabin. The corporal gazed out of the window; he had known what was possible when he joined the missile service but the enormity of what they were about to do was still overwhelming. His calm exterior followed the path that the years of training and drills had taught, while inside his thoughts and stomach churned.
“Missile in position, starting launch sequence” came the words behind him. Keys turned and codes were typed in, then the fateful buttons were pressed. The vehicle started to shake as if it had a volcano attached at its rear, with the rocket bursting raucously into action. The shaking got stronger and stronger until it suddenly faded away as quickly as it had started. All that was left was the receding roar of the rocket engine above them.
“Missile gone” came the grim statement from behind him, as tears broke free from his eyelids.