Changes On The Geopolitical Chessboard

Outside the Ukraine and Middle East Conflicts

A Very Busy Western Hemisphere!

Colombia & Peru in the Balance

The US pulled out all the manipulation stops it seems to try to get an outright win for their Milei-like candidate in Colombia in the first round of the presidential election. They failed though, and their attempts may backfire as a population with access to the voting documentation are publicly outing the very obvious cheating.

The second round of voting is scheduled for June 21st. If the right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella had made it across the 50% vote share line in the first round to become president would the voting documentation have quickly vanished? China is not a major export market for Colombia, while the US and China both account for about one quarter of Colombia’s imports.

Peru’s presidential election run-off on June 7th was between the right-wing Fujimori (of the incredibly corrupt Fujimori family that provided a dictator president that was jailed for human rights abuses and corruption) and the left wing Sanchez. The previous left-winger who won the presidency was destroyed by the narco-corrupt-elite and then jailed and replaced with a good oligarch-tool. The current results show Fujimori leading by an incredibly small 18,500 votes, 0.1%; with 98.59% of the votes counted with over 1,500 voting stations results being reviewed. We may have to wait until mid-July for the final result; which leaves lots of time for an oligarch-dominated state to come up with a win for narco-oligarchy and the US (i.e. Fujimori). The Senate may be balanced 30-30 and the progressive and left may have a slight majority in the Chamber of Deputies; the latter has legislative power, but the Senate can block that legislation. Whoever wins the presidency, the result may be political paralysis with a 30-30 Senate balance, as it will be incredibly difficult to agree on a president of the Senate who will not have a normal vote; only being allowed to vote to break a tie. Possibly more political paralysis than US victory.

Peru’s oligarchy will also be very cognizant that 36% of its exports go to China (vs. only 12% for the US), and even though about one quarter of all imports come from China, Peru runs a substantial trade surplus with China.; while running a trade deficit with the US. And China is of course responsible for the major Chancay port, which will bring trans-shipment revenues etc. The Peruvian oligarchy are not about to bite the had that feeds, reflecting the fundamental conflict in South America between the burgeoning economic relations with China and the historical Western orientation of the elites.

Panama Port Powerplay: USA vs. China

Then we have the power plays between China and the US over the Panamanian ports that China has invested so much money in. The Panamanian president seems to have been delusional in not expecting the Chinese to retaliate, and China has retaliated now in numerous ways; forcing some backtracking by the Panama government. The Chinese need to make an example of Panama, to send a message to anyone else looking to abrogate long-term contractual arrangements with China at the behest of the US.

Bolivia Rebels Against Lying Neoliberal President

In Bolivia, the newly elected right wing president Paz Periera is already in a very major internal conflict after jailing the previous president (Arce) and trying to assassinate/export to the US the president before that (Morales), while utterly reneging on his professed centrist agenda to go full-on neoliberal and US vassal. Let’s remember that this all stems from the US supported coup against the elected president Morales in 2019, who had resided over a period of great social and economic gains. The imprisoning of Arce is quite ironic, given his lack of alliance with Morales and the people’s movements to thoroughly crush the right-wing that had carried out the coup and flush the security forces of their supporters.

US Working to Subjugate Cuba

The US administration is going full-on in its attempt to fully politically subjugate Latin America, with all options open to it, including an ongoing tightening of the sanctions screws. And quite possibly an invasion, now that the US has accepted the reality of defeat against Iran.

Not Going The US Way in Brazil

Trump failed in his bid to stop Bolsonaro going to jail though tariff bullying, as Brazil simply re-oriented its trade relations with an emphasis on China. The latter is now the destination for about 30% of Brazilian exports, as against 10% for the US. On the import front, China has about a 30% share while the US is half that. Overall, Brazil runs a trade surplus with China and a trade deficit with the US. In addition, there are Chinese automobile plants springing up across Brazil. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil jumped 45% in 2025 to over US$6 billion, while US FDI was US$20.8 billion but on a falling trend.

The two main contenders for the presidential election in October are the incumbent Lula and the son of Bolsonaro, with the former enjoying an up to 10% lead over the latter. Trump’s interventions seem to have backfired as Lula successfully played the Brazilian sovereignty card. The re-election of Lula would not be a disaster for the US, but it would significantly blunt its attempts to gain greater leverage in South America.

Argentina: Setting up for the Fall?

As this article notes, the Milei inflation “miracle” has been built on large-scale wage suppression and an overvalued exchange rate that has crushed industry, not any great increase in productivity. While the economy has become even more oriented toward agriculture and resource extraction and significant harm has been done to the public sector’s ability to foster long-term growth. While workers’ rights are sent back to the nineteenth century and access to higher education significantly reduced. As the article states, the current situation is not sustainable:

With negative net reserves, a domestic market in ruins, and multi-billion dollar IMF and private debts hanging over the country, the government’s path is now dictated entirely by a desperate need for dollars that turns every domestic policy into a plea for foreign capital.

This has created an economic vacuum in which there is no credit for small businesses, no surplus for public investment and no consumer demand to entice private capital back into the real economy.

With growth decelerating this year, and focused on the agriculture and mining sectors, and an inflation rate of still over 30% and not falling, the level of domestic discontent could rapidly rise.

Milei may have won the mid-terms late last year (with exceptional help from the US and the IMF), but he is sitting upon a pressure cooker and only has until October 2027 before the next elections. Argentina’s main export markets are Brazil (15%), China (12%) and the US (10%) while its main import sources are Brazil (24%), China (24%) and the US (9%). China is not a major source of FDI.

Football World Cup: US Xenophobia, Racism and Profiteering on Full Display

Then in the US itself we will have the spectacle of the utter disaster of a Football World Cup marred by an extreme price-gouging FIFA, profiteering local facilities, and US xenophobia and immigration authority brutality, and US soft power shredded by support for the Zionist genocide and the war of aggression on Iran. The biggest winner seems to be the Canadian city of Montreal that refused to host the event.

And the US immigration authorities seem to have gone out of their way to make things difficult for the Iranian team, forcing them to have to base their team in Mexico and travel across the border to play matches. With the US authorities forcing them to return to Mexico immediately after a match.

Seems that the 2028 Olympics in the US may be setting up for the same price-gouging, and what will be the view of the US by then? So many countries have brought in, or are bringing in, laws to stop the scalping which helps escalate resale prices so much. The US stands out in the realm of legal scalping and flexible demand-driven pricing, with FIFA taking full advantage and the IOC looking to do the same. Together with the immigration and other issues, the World Cup and Olympics may in fact damage further US soft power abroad rather than burnish it.

Europe

Internal Politics Generally Going to Oligarch Plans with Small Setbacks

There was the election in Hungary, where after many attempts the EU bureaucracy finally rid itself of Orban, only to find that his replacement had a much more nuanced position than just being an anti-Russian shill. In Bulgaria, an EU critic and relatively pro-Russian PM was elected. In the UK, Starmer is on his way out to be replaced by either a fully bought and paid for oligarch shill (Streeting) or an extremely mild bourgeois progressive (Burnham); the latter having won a June 18th by-election to become a member of parliament. In France the right wing pro-Ukraine War leader is gaining ground with respect to the 2017 presidential election while in Germany the right wing anti-Ukraine War party is gaining ground but the election will not be until 2029. Unless the CSU dump Merz and their coalition partners and partner with the AfD.

So hard to accept defeat!

The European oligarchs are still living in a la la land where Russia is not kicking their ass in Ukraine, with more pin prick and annoying escalations. With respect to China, the EU bureaucracy is still in “China bad” mode, but there is more and more evidence that the oligarchy is accepting that it must deal with China on a much more respectful level.

Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

This is extraordinarily rare. In fact, according to a key figure in the German business community (who is a dear friend of mine), it's unprecedented. An op-ed, two pages, centerpiece, in Germany’s most important economic newspaper (the Handelsblatt) that begs the German

6:09 AM · Jun 10, 2026 · 55.6K Views

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64 Replies · 356 Reposts · 1.37K Likes

Asia

Things pretty quiet on the geopolitical front in Asia, with Japan feeling the effects of the Chinese critical minerals export tightening in response to the PM’s stupidly aggressive comments (Trump is now asking China to ease these, reflecting the pain being caused to the Japanese economy), the US seeming to be de-escalating somewhat the Taiwan issue, and the senior Taiwanese opposition leader meeting with Xi. The US inability to defend the GCC nations from Iranian retaliatory attacks, and its obvious defeat at the hands of Iran, may make Taiwanese elites think twice about becoming a Western weapon against China.

The Chinese leader also had a state visit to North Korea, part of the ongoing integration of North Korea into the Safe Asian Space after so many years out in the US sanctions cold.

There are Western-supported demonstrations in Indonesia, when will these nations’ elites learn that they need to get control over the foreign-funded NGOs and media outlets that are part of the colour revolution complex? The Indonesian leader is being far too independent-minded for US tastes.

The Western tool Pashinyan (a product of an earlier colour revolution) won the Armenian election, but with less than 50% of the vote; not exactly a resounding vote of support with a deeply divided opposition. Given the realities of Armenia’s geography and trade (Russia represents 36% of its trade volume and provides natural gas far below European prices), Armenia’s options are greatly restricted, as this article concedes:

The EU cannot afford for this project to fail. If Armenia were to revert to the Russian orbit, it would represent a strategic defeat for Brussels. Georgia’s drift away from the EU and Ukraine’s prolonged blood-letting have already damaged the credibility of European promises. Losing Armenia would compound those failures.

This is why Brussels will not allow Armenians to chart an independent course based on friendly relations with Moscow.

Brussels needs Armenia to remain on an anti-Russian path while lacking the resources to genuinely replace Russia as Armenia’s primary economic partner. This contradiction will define Armenian politics for years to come, with ordinary citizens bearing the cost.

The EU is also trying to strong-arm Georgia after all the colour revolution efforts failed and Georgia asserted its sovereignty; including getting control of the foreign NGOs and media outlets (forcing any funded more than 20% by foreign interests to report the fact). The Georgian government told the EU to take a hike.

The other main issue is of course the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz upon Asian nations. China has shown its resilience by being able to reduce oil imports by stopping its strategic oil reserve build, stopping oil product exports, exploiting coal to liquids and coal to chemicals capacity, and its population using its extensive electrified transport system and substantial numbers of electrified personal vehicles more. If required, it could mandate more usage of electrified transport and start to draw on its 1.4 billion barrels of reserves. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Philippines are being hit severely, with Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Australia also significantly impacted. Mongolia imports 100% of its oil from Russia, while Kazakhstan is an oil exporter. The US again reducing its soft power by causing fossil fuel supply problems across Asia with its war of aggression against Iran. Now that the MOU has been signed, hopefully things will slowly get back to normal.

China’s EV industry is also greatly benefitting from raised oil prices driving more demand for electric vehicles, both at home and abroad. This is significantly damaging the Western car manufacturers, especially in the Chinese domestic market where Western brands are seeing y-o-y sales falls of 30% to 50%. In addition, Chinese EV exports are booming.