BRINCISTAN Status
I have written about BRINCISTAN (Belarus, Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, Iraq and the “Stans”) previously as the core of resistance to the US-lead Western Empire. This core has the long-term capacity to utterly dominate the Eurasian land mass. The recent bringing in from the cold of North Korea, firstly by Russia and most recently by China is a significant event. As is the increasing alliance between the super-sanctioned nations of Russia and Iran, the reason why the US is so interested in the Caucasus region that separates the two nations. Of course, BRINCISTAN rests upon the alliance between the manufacturing and population colossus of China and the natural resources colossus of Russia. Now China is overtaking Russia and the US with its military power. Together with a neutral ASEAN and a fence-sitting India, BRINCISTAN promises a continental Asian safe space away from Western attempts at military aggression, destabilization and logistical interdiction.
China has displayed its military might, and also its ability to choke the US economy and Military Industrial Complex of access to critical minerals and components. As Hua Bin puts so well, the Chinese Victory Day display of military might sent a very strong message to the US and its vassals:
Beijing’s message to the US
The show of force at the military parade is aimed at both the US military and its political leadership. Several messages are clear:
- China has developed a multi-layered, redundant kill web designed to deny access to its shores. If the US intervenes in a conflict around Taiwan or in the South China Sea, China has the arsenal to deliver massive blows to its naval and air assets not just along the first island chain (Japan and the Philippines) but beyond the second island chain (Guam)
- China’s air and naval warfare technology is at par or superior to what the US can field. It is also innovating at a faster pace. China’s industrial might means it can vastly outproduce the US if war breaks out. The days of US prosecuting a war against an inferiorly equipped opponent are over
- Beijing is capable of the same level of nuclear deterrence against the US as Russia. Despite having a far smaller nuclear arsenal and a “no first strike” policy, China has enough secondary strike capability to deliver mutually assured destruction (MAD). As a result, China is invulnerable to nuclear blackmail and can move up the escalation ladder as needed
- There is no safety for the US homeland. A main reason of US military adventurism has been its geography. The US ruling elite and the population has never had to pay for its aggression due to its vast distance from most theaters of war that it has provoked. China has demonstrated such immunity is over with its ability to conduct long-range conventional and nuclear strike on US homeland if the US wages a war against Chinese homeland. When a bully is vulnerable to being hit back, its behavior is likely to become more reasonable
The recent Taiwanese electoral shenanigans have also weakened the separatists in that nation. That is why I now consider a war over Taiwan as a very low probability event between now and the 2028 Taiwanese legislative and presidential elections. The dominance of China and the utter idiocy of separatism will be even more evident then to the Taiwanese electorate. The rogue province will reunite with the mainland at some time, but China has the patience to wait into the 2030s and even 2040s if necessary.
The attempt at a military putsch by the South Korean president at the end of 2024, which we have to assume was fully supported by the US, thankfully failed. He has now been replaced with a significantly less China-phobic president and the temperature between South Korea and China has been reduced. As the only Western outpost on the Eurasian mainland in the region, South Korea’s new orientation is significant for peace. Over the next decade, the population of 18-30 year olds in that country will significantly decline. In the following decade, the 30-40 demographic will significantly decline, while the 18-30 demographic will collapse; not trends that will encourage military adventurism. Such a rapid working age population collapse will also negatively impact South Korea’s economy. While at the same time, North Korea’s demographics and new economic linkages will support what could be robust economic growth.
With Japan a weak and declining power that is already experiencing an accelerating decline in its working, and overall, population and an ASEAN (excluding the Philippines) which is set on prosperous neutrality, there is little possibility of significant war in the region; no matter how hard the West attempts to undermine societies and stir up inter-ethnic hatred. The Philippines will remain as the Stockholm-Syndrome ex-colonial US vassal society in the region, but it is a weak nation always with the possibility of a less US-tool leadership coming into power; as was the case with Duterte.
The new Japanese PM, the first woman to fill that position, is seen by some as a Japanese “Thatcher” but is in reality just a female version of her mentor; the neoliberal Abe who did so much to undermine the Japanese economy and society as a whole. Many misunderstand the Japanese financial and fiscal positions, which is far better than the consensus estimates due to its massive foreign financial holdings, government assets that have a higher yield than its liabilities, and the role of the central bank in holding so much of the government’s debts; a bank that is owned by the government. Japan will be subject to a long-term slow decline, not a crash. The foreign policy position of Japan is stated well by Julian MacFarlane, even though he utterly misunderstands Japan’s financial position:
don’t alienate Japan’s largest trading partner, China [Takaichi is starting to fail in this respect].
don’t alienate the Russians who are supplying oil and gas to Japan
promise to invest in the US – someday, if the bill can get through the Diet-- someday. Promise anything but don’t offer guarantees.
make a lot of excuses when the Americans want something you don’t want to give – and lie a lot.
remember that Americans don’t remember anything after a news cycle or two.
The new Japanese PM is playing the US with an external display which is very different to the real internal position, something that the Japanese are very good at.
Takaichi did all the right things. She talked conservative, acted pragmatic, smiled a lot and made promises without any guarantees.
In Japan, it’s known as “tatemae”-- that which stands in front, social representation, a lubricant for relationships. The understanding is that nothing that is said is necessarily true. It can be promising, but not a real promise. “Truth” is known as “honne”- literally, the “real thing”.
Although recently, Takaichi seems to be risking the relationship with China far too much with her katana-rattling; the reason for the Chinese clamp down on rare earth element (REE) exports to Japan. The Japanese car manufacturers will not be enamoured with a PM that is working to destroy the value of their brands in China; there are limits to her self-harming actions.
South Korea and Japan are declining vassals that need to carefully navigate the fall of their sovereign and the rise of China as the dominant force in Asia. They will not sacrifice their dwindling youth to fight the inevitability of history. Without their support, the US has no realistic way of starting a war with China; peace will reign.
India is a weak power with a huge population, that has failed to industrialize and is in fact becoming more agricultural when it is not that efficient or effective at agriculture. Hidebound by a self-serving corrupt and gilded tiny oligarchy. Without real fundamental change, revolutionary-style change, India will continue to be the “superpower of the future” while it sinks farther and farther behind China and the southeast Asian nations. This provides a good analysis of the realities of Inia:
