Avdiivka = Bakhmut & Gaza = Stalingrad

The title of this piece sums up the problems facing the Ukrainian and the Israeli armed forces and political leaders.

Avdiivka = Bakhmut

Due to Russia’s overwhelming dominance in artillery (both artillery pieces and the shells and rockets available), drones, aircraft (fixed wing and helicopters), anti-aircraft systems, electronic warfare capabilities, missiles, and general munition supplies the taking of Bakhmut by Russia involved the opposite of what would be expected; many, many more casualties among the defending Ukrainians than among the attacking Russians. Many of the latter were also among the mercenary soldiers of the Wagner Group, rather than Russian Army soldiers.

The losses among the Ukrainians included many of the remaining well-trained and battle-tested soldiers, who were increasingly replaced with new green recruits. The following Ukrainian Summer offensive then led to utterly appalling levels of losses as Ukrainian forces were thrown against the Russian defensive lines that were backed up by the dominance noted above. Yet more of the dwindling supply of experienced Ukrainian soldiers, together with much of the new equipment supplied by the West, were wasted in gaining handfuls of kilometres of land; again, replaced with green recruits. With that offensive now having petered out, the Russians needed a new ploy to keep bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is why they chose Avdiivka, which will draw in the Ukrainian forces like moths to a light.

The highly industrialized Avdiivka is probably the most heavily fortified area of the front line and lies within artillery range of the major Russian city of Donetsk. Its’ taking by the Russians would remove both a major defensive Ukrainian asset and push the Ukrainian artillery away from Donetsk (map below from the Institute for the Study of War).

Both of these factors argue for the Ukrainian army sending extra forces to the area to fend off the Russian attacks, but this will not be the main driver. The greater problem for the Ukrainian leadership is the need to keep up the fiction that they have a chance of winning, both for their own population and for the populations of the nations that are keeping them militarily and financially afloat. The fall of Bakhmut and the pathetic failure of the Summer offensive have already seriously damaged this message, and the fall of Avdiivka may become an existential threat to it. The risk is of two terminal feedback loops; a loss of belief at home feeding into a defeatist general attitude and a loss of belief abroad producing reductions in the foreign support that is critical to the regime’s survival. A cut in that support will lead to breakdowns on the home front and more losses on the battle front, which will then lead to further reductions in Western aid. With the Western focus now so much on aiding Israel, the need for positive news from the battle front is becoming ever more critical; even to the personal survival of Zelensky.

So, as the Russians had most probably predicted, battalion after battalion of the Ukrainian army is being fed into the new Avdiivka meat grinder. The material advantage of the Russians is now even greater than it was at Bakhmut, with Russian drone production for example far in excess of what it was previously and with greatly improved capabilities.

In contrast, the Ukrainians expended so much of their limited supplies of munitions and mechanized vehicles on the failed Summer offensive and more recently on the suicidal attempted crossings of the Dniepr. In addition, the mass availability of Russian guided glide bombs of 500, 1000 and 1500kg weight has facilitated devastating bombing attacks on Ukrainian positions without endangering the launch aircraft. Tens of these are being dropped every day on Ukrainian positions, and Russia has a nearly endless supply of such bombs.

Instead of attempting to fight their way through the fortifications in one mass attack the Russian plan seems to be to cut off all supply routes to Avdiivka and then take their time through the depths of Winter to slowly subdue it. Lots of time for Ukraine to feed in 10,000s of troops, to add to the 8,000 already within the city, in vain attempts to raise the siege. The Military Summary Channel reports that Ukraine may already have plans to increase the Avdiivka garrison up to 30,000, falling into the trap that the Russian military has laid.

Recent reports are putting the Ukrainian casualty rates around Avdiivka at even higher levels than during the Summer campaign, up to 1,000 killed, injured and taken prisoner in just this small area per day. When added to the losses on all other parts of the front, the Ukrainian army could be suffering upwards of 45,000 casualties a month; a rate at which there may not be much of it functioning by the Spring. All the while, Russia continues to thoroughly train its newly conscripted soldiers together with the 100,000s of additional new volunteers, while amassing huge amounts of material to support ongoing operations. The Russians are methodically doing the main job of war, destroying the enemy army. By Spring, the Ukrainian army may be so degraded that Russian victories will become increasingly easy.

Gaza = Stalingrad

The German army came very, very close to clearing the whole of the West bank of Stalingrad. The problem was that as every day passed with the Germans focused on the tactical objective, they lost focus on their strategic environment and their weak flanks. They also did not have much of a plan for what would happen after they fully took that West bank. The Israeli leadership are falling into the same trap. It is obvious to anyone who clearly analyses the history of Occupied Palestine since 1920 that the Israeli Zionist plan has always been to ethnically cleanse the area of Palestine and take the lands for themselves. Just as the Germans planned to clear European Russia of Slavs to create their lebensraum. If you doubt this the following documentary will be highly educational:

Here are some Israelis admitting to their role in the Tantura massacre of 22-23 May 1948, during the Nakba, when up to 200 Palestinians were massacred after the village had surrendered. The Zionists have built a car park on top of the resulting mass grave.

The film Tantura covers this in detail. The Nakba, when 700,000 Palestinians were driven out of their homeland by Zionist terror is extensively covered up in Israel and has even been banned from Arab children’s text-books.

 The fall of the Soviet Union and the new US unipolar moment, together with the Global War on Terror following 9/11, greatly aided the Zionists as they ramped up the growth in West Bank settlers to the point that 3 million Palestinian are now squeezed into ever shrinking disconnected islands in a connected sea populated by 750,000 Israeli settlers. This was the extremely successful “if you do ethnic cleansing incrementally and relatively quietly the US and the West will happily collaborate” approach. Aided by the sponsoring of Hamas in Gaza to split the leadership of Gaza from the leadership of the West Bank.

The problem with Gaza is that 2.2 million Palestinians are already squeezed into an incredibly small strip of land with their backs to the sea. That seafront is quite valuable, as it contains a vey good deep harbour and rights over what seems to be an abundance of natural gas offshore, as well as fishing rights. The worst nightmare for Israel is a Gaza strip that becomes viable due to its natural resources and port facilities, so Israel has illegally stopped the Gazan population from using those port facilities, is stealing the natural gas for itself, and has even stopped fishing offshore. If life was made hard enough for the Palestinians in Gaza, perhaps they would find a way to leave and thus cleanse the land for the Israelis? Well that option has not worked, and the Palestinian population in Gaza has maintained a high birth rate with the result that half of the population is 18 years-old or younger. So, perhaps make things even less bearable for the Palestinians in Gaza?

This is why the “Let It Happen on Purpose” (LIHOP) theories of the Hamas attack have proliferated, as it has provided the perfect 9/11-style excuse to carry out an explicit ethnic cleansing by destroying the built infrastructure of Gaza and cutting off electricity, water, food and other humanitarian supplies; the equivalent of a medieval siege. Whether or not the LIHOP theories are correct, the Israeli state has gone full bore on the propaganda front to paint Hamas and the Palestinians as dehumanized Untermensch that do not deserve the rights of civilized people; extensively aided by Western governments and media organizations. But for this strategy to work a number of things have to be in place which are not and may never be:

·      The ability of Israel and the West to control the information space to maintain propagandist control

·      The ability of Israel and the West to deter other actors such as Hezbollah, Syria and Iran from intervening

·      The ability of Israel to keep the West Bank Palestinians in check through their comprador leader Abbas

·      The acquiescence of the two million Arab Israeli citizens

It is no longer the unipolar moment and the media is not that which was in place in the 1990s. Those outside the Golden Billion have access to media networks such as Al Jazeera that do not carry the Israeli and Western propaganda and instead show a much more truthful picture of the Israeli ethnic cleansing brutality. Even within the Golden Billion, the oligarch-compliant mainstream media is being bypassed via such internet platforms as Twitter, YouTube (which has responded by banning multiple pro-Palestinian channels), Rumble, Substack, Telegram and even TikTok. Israel has seen its propaganda rapidly debunked by an army of independent analysts with access to mass audiences. In addition, the Muslim populations of Europe have become much larger in recent decades; populations which are much more knowledgeable and supportive of the Palestinian cause than the general population. Israel, to its surprise, is finding that it is losing the propaganda war. Its response is to thrash out at individuals and groups not following its script, even the UN General Secretary; an approach which just undermines its propaganda even more. The seemingly unhinged and extremely racist statements of Israel’s leaders and diplomats has only added to this failure.

Again, it is not the 1990s and no Arab nation is about to allow the US to station hundreds of thousands of troops upon its soil; not Egypt, not Jordan, not Lebanon, not Syria, not Iraq, not Saudi Arabia, and not the other Gulf Cooperation Council nations. Nor the Turks, the Afghans, the Stans or Pakistan. The small bases that the US does have now look more like easy targets that may require rapid evacuation. The only real assets that the US has will be on a limited number of ships which will have to stay well out of harms way given Iranian and even Hezbollah anti-ship missiles; and even Russian hypersonic anti-ship missiles. The stationing of Kinzhal capable Russian fighter-bombers over the Black Sea, with the ability to hit US aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean, already seems to have forced the US to re-station its carrier battle groups. Stationing of additional Russian Kinzhal capable aircraft over the Caspian Sea would force the US carriers far out into the Indian Ocean. The Russian anti-aircraft batteries and fighters in Syria will also most probably not allow Israeli jets to fly over Syria to attack Iran. In addition, Iran has developed the ability to utterly devastate the Persian Gulf and all US bases in the area if attacked while also developing a much closer relationship with Russia. China has also stationed five of its destroyers off the coast of Iran seemingly as a defensive screen.

Iran could perhaps fight an extensive proxy war with Israel through Hezbollah and other groups without Israel and the US feeling safe enough to attack it directly. Israel has bombed airports in Syria to try to stop Iran supplying Hezbollah etc., but the Russians have made their own air base in Syria available to Iran as a result. Syria itself would also be very happy to take back the Golan Heights, so if Israel was weakened and bogged down on other fronts it may very well join the fray. Hezbollah has a massive array of advanced missiles with which to strike the highly compact population and industrial centres of Israel, together with an army of 100,000 fighters many of which have extensive experience from the Syrian War. Hezbollah has stated that it will become directly engaged if Gaza is invaded by Israel, and in the meantime has been methodically taking apart the Israeli defence systems on the Lebanese border.

If Gaza is invaded, the ability of Abbas to keep control has to be open to major question. A new intifada by the 3 million West Bank Palestinians will then become a major issue for Israel requiring the extensive deployment of troops. Even if Abbas maintains control, significant numbers of IDF troops will need to remain there as both a safety measure and a deterrence. The final nightmare for the Israelis is the 2 million Israeli Palestinians that reside among them, will they idly sit by while Gaza is brutally ethnically cleansed? What we have seen is there is an increasing readiness of Israeli Palestinians to get directly involved in the struggle. With any clearing of Gaza being an existential one for the future of a Palestinian state, they may decide that they have no choice. If even a tenth of those 2 million rebel they could cause chaos on the Israeli home front.

So, the Israelis may certainly be damned if they directly invade Gaza. In addition, the quality, stoicism and morale of the members of the IDF, most of whom have been called up after 2.5 years of previous national service (2 years for women) in a peacetime environment with time mainly spent terrorizing, brutalizing and subjugating unarmed civilians, has to be a major concern for the Israeli leaders. The population of Gaza, half of which is 18 years-old or under, has nowhere to go and has experienced very restricted life possibilities in Gaza. This is the perfect breeding ground for a highly motivated mass army, built around the core of the professional Hamas, fighting in the shattered ruins of their homeland. Sounds very much like Stalingrad doesn’t it! The Israeli leadership have already stated that a ground invasion will take up to 3 months, probably a major underestimate. How will the middle-class Israelis, who have got used to living in “Brooklyn by the Mediterranean”, react to taking mass casualties against a young army more than ready to shed their lives for their homeland? Prior limited outings against Hezbollah do not bode well, and the many female soldiers are not well suited for such physically demanding fighting. Real war is hell, and Hamas seem to have made sure that they are well supplied with weapons and munitions; much of it from Ukraine it seems. There are only 7 million Jews in Israel and the current call up is already creating serious issues for the economy. What if the Gaza campaign stretches well past the 6-month period, Hezbollah opens up the northern front and the West Bank and a section of the Israeli-Palestinian population ignites? The resources of the IDF and the Israeli economy could become overwhelmed, and munitions could quickly run low as we have seen in Ukraine.

The above is why the Israeli and US leadership is hesitating in invading Gaza. The problem is that the status quo of full on siege with continuous indiscriminate bombing cannot go on forever. The reality of 10,000s or even 100,000s of Palestinians dying of thirst, starvation and being blown apart will ignite the region and turn the Israeli population into pariahs outside the Western world, a population that may be in grave danger even that world. No more “Brooklyn on the Mediterranean”, with most probably a slow but increasing emigration of the best, brightest and most financially able citizens from Israel. The cease-fire and resumption of services and supplies that the global community outside the West is demanding would be a declaration of surrender by Israel, with the acceptance that it can never cleanse Gaza and never keep its settler population safe from the populations that it is subjugating. After what has occurred, and the utter failure of Israeli propaganda, there will be mounting pressure to make Gaza truly independent, with all of the rights to its natural resources. The emigration noted above will also be triggered in this scenario.

The least-worst option for the Israelis is that retreat, but that will be very painful and also most probably lead to the end of Netanyahu’s political career and liberty. The civil war in Israel between the Ashkenazi and the Mizrahi will also most probably re-erupt, intensified by the failure of the Mizrahi-dominated Israeli leadership. If the Israelis do not retreat and instead invade, they may very well find their enemies in their rear. Given the Israeli statements about the use of their nuclear arsenal in such a circumstance, and the geopolitical tensions, a much wider war could then be triggered. Just as the Germans probably wished that they had never attacked Stalingrad, the Israelis may come to bemoan their over-reaction to the Hamas incursion.