A Realistic View of BRICS and BRICISSTAN

The true core of BRICS will consist of China, Russia and Iran, with elites that are nationalist and in the case of China and Iran also heavily socialist. Russia still operates with much of the neoliberal inheritance of the 1990s, even within the minds of many of its ruling elite. The Ukraine conflict, and the resultant Western sanctions, has facilitated a significant decolonization of the Russian mind and a rebalancing of state-oligarch relations in favour of the former. These three nations have the potential to dominate Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan), Belarus, Iraq, and Syria; with the aid of the overlapping Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) security alliance. Linking together a huge landmass that contains the greatest global manufacturing power, the second greatest global military power, and colossal natural resource deposits. This is the true core of the challenge to the West, perhaps we can call it BRICISSTAN. Mongolia represents an independent variable, but simple geography and trade flows will mean that it never becomes an enemy.

For this challenge to be successful it requires at the least the non-alignment of the rest of the non-West, and their usage of the new multi-polar world to rebalance their economic relations with the West to their advantage. Such non-alignment was shown with respect to the Western sanctions upon Russia, where the Rest of the World (ROW) refused to be part of the Western attempt to subjugate Russia. In ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) plus Bangladesh and Pakistan, China has a grouping that will be at least non-aligned, with some nations such as Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia being much closer to China. The underlying dynamic of Chinese demand and respect for sovereignty will continue to pull ASEAN toward China, no matter what the West does. The latter is doing as much as possible to disrupt this process, with widespread interference in the elections in Malaysia and Thailand and support for Western-comprador forces in Myanmar (greatly aided by India), but its efforts will come to nought; with Chinese patience and restraint paying dividends.

India, the “I” in BRICS will never be a truly anti-imperial force as its ruling class are fully neoliberal, with many educated in the West. This elite treats China as a regional competitor that must be resisted, and with a mindset that protects its national rentier profit-making. This combination has repeatedly led India to cut off its nose to spite its face, with Chinese (and other foreign) companies treated in highly arbitrary ways that stifle the ability of India to utilize Chinese (and other nations) help for national development. India will remain as a developing nation, never to repeat the Chinese (and South Korean, and Taiwanese, and ongoing Vietnamese) growth and development miracle. India’s long-term alliance with Russia will mitigate its relationship with BRICISSTAN, but India will always be a prickly neighbour that will look to work with the US against China when it sees advantage. In many ways, India’s geopolitical role resembles that of Turkey under Erdogan.

South Africa, the “S” in BRICS is a neoliberal fun house run by an ANC traitorous elite that turned its back on the masses of the Black population to massively enrich itself in cahoots with the white national capitalists and Western capital. If any nation has truly implemented the story of Animal Farm it is South Africa. “All [black people] are equal, but some [black people] are more equal than others” and “[socialists] good, [capitalists even white ones] better” seems befitting of current South Africa. The Black elite may very well exercise a level of nationalism, but they will never be socialist brothers. This is where the RIC respect for national sovereignty and political non-interference becomes such a weapon to wield against the neo-colonial ever-interfering West. To stretch a saying of Deng, the RIC must make friends with socialist, capitalist, and even medieval theocratic monarchic cats to overcome the West; but it must also be wary of the non-socialist cats.

Brazil, the “B” in BRICS, is a nation dominated by the elites that it was bequeathed at the time of independence. A poisoned chalice that, as I have written here, here and here, provides a disabling legacy for Latin America. There are a few nations that have fully or partially escaped that legacy, mainly Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia, but for the vast majority the comprador landed, and financial domestic elites dominate. As I have covered here, the very best of Lula was “neoliberalism with crumbs” and the most recent reincarnation is certainly not the best version. He will tread very carefully with respect to the West, being seen more to hold the coat of the RIC than directly engage in the duel. The Latin American comprador elites are simply looking for improved prices for their exports, and a bit more leeway in their exploitation of their populations, by working with the RIC. Argentina, which is swaying back to the right from a mildly progressive government very much reflects that reality.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are medieval-style monarchies that claim their nation’s wealth for themselves, but they have smelt the wind and notice the new way that it is blowing. Together with the cooperation with Russia and Iran within OPEC+, they are more forcefully pivoting to the RIC (with Saudi Arabia and Qatar becoming observers of the SCO); reflecting their interests with their fellow OPEC+ members and the biggest market for the fossil fuel exports, while turning away from Western divide and conquer tactics. Due to the Western inability to stop interfering in the domestic politics of its “allies”, Egypt has started to drift away from the Western sphere (including observer status at the SCO) ; but again, we must remember the nature of its leadership. Ethiopia does seem to be a state that under its new leadership is attempting to turn away from the West and gain the alternative financing and help that it needs to do so. Given its location in the Horn of Africa opposite Saudi Arabia, its geopolitical positioning will affect the whole region.

The West is utterly dependent on its ability to source raw materials from the Rest at knockdown prices, keep them underdeveloped so that they provide a good market for Western exports, and steal the value added produced by the Rest through unequal trading and legal relationships backed up by technology controls. This avenue has already been shut down in Russia and Iran (mostly by the West’s own self-harming sanctions), and China is increasingly moving up the technology curve and gaining a greater share of its own value added; the real reason for Western aggression. As especially China expands its increasingly sophisticated exports around the world, imports more and more from the Rest, and funds development projects, the flow of cheap resources and value-added to the West is reduced. In the Middle East, China and Russia are working with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States to remove their dependence upon the US dollar and Western financial system. The capitalist centre is slowly strangled. In the Middle East and Africa, Russia also provides hired military muscle to facilitate the success of nations such as Niger in rebalancing their economic relations with the West.

RIC and BRICISSTAN do not need Brazil, India or South Africa or others as full allies against the West, they simply need them (as with the rest of the ROW) to not be enemies and to utilize multipolarity to rebalance their economic and financial relations with the West. Without the neo-colonial flows of plunder to the West, the capitalist centre will be strangled into a slow collapse with no need for war. The over-sized Western elite response to the coup in Niger shows that they are very cognizant of this possibility, but they may also be becoming more conscious of their inability to stop it happening. The failure of the Western comprador ECOWAS to mount a military campaign against Niger in the face of popular resistance in their own nations is a marker to which way the wind is blowing.

So, we do not need to be disappointed when Brazil, India and South Africa and others show their unwillingness to become true partners of BRICISSTAN. All we need of them is to stand aside from the duel and use it to rebalance their relations with the West to their advantage. This by itself will help bring the Western house down.